Gold Market Analysis: "Gold Price Likely to Test $4,000 Level"  
October 5, 2026, 11:10 AM (Completed)

U.S. non-farm payroll data for September came in unexpectedly weak, with only 29,000 new jobs added—far below the expected 89,000. The August figure was also revised down from 162,000 to 133,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2% from 4.1%. Additionally, the year-on-year increase in average hourly earnings slowed from 3.1% to 3.0%. Following the release, the U.S. dollar sharply declined, pushing spot gold prices as high as $4,227.7 within five minutes—the intraday peak—but then quickly reversed course.

Although gold briefly broke above $4,210—a level I had considered unbreakable—it triggered immediate profit-taking, sending prices down to a low of $4,125.35, marking the day’s lowest point. On the hourly chart, despite some recovery, gold briefly pierced above the 20-period SMA at $4,163 this morning before forming a bearish engulfing pattern and reversing sharply. The overall trend now resembles a descending triangle. Using Fibonacci extension levels, the next target for downside movement is estimated at $4,060.8.

The disappointing U.S. employment data has raised the probability of the Federal Reserve holding interest rates steady this month to 82.3%, while the chance of a 25-basis-point hike in December has climbed to 70%. Meanwhile, second-quarter GDP growth exceeded expectations, and core PCE inflation remained stable at 3% year-on-year for the third consecutive month, while CPI still reached 3.4% annually. The Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index surged over 58.8. Even if rates remain unchanged this month, the Fed is unlikely to shift its hawkish policy stance. Therefore, after the October meeting, market focus will turn to another 25-basis-point rate hike in December. Given this outlook, even if gold rebounds, it is unlikely to break through $4,210, and the price is expected to head toward the $4,000 level.

The above information is for reference purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.