Gold market analysis

2026-11-02

Gold Market Analysis: "High Value at $3,810 per Ounce" – 2/11/2026 9:53 AM The United States will hold its midterm elections tomorrow, with all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 out of 100 Senate seats up for re-election. With some Republican lawmakers retiring or facing highly competitive districts, certain polls suggest Democrats may regain control of the Senate, while Republicans are expected to retain their majority in the House. Additionally, the U.S. Department of Labor will release the October non-farm payroll report this Friday, with expectations of a gain of 63,000 jobs. ADP will also release its private sector employment data on Wednesday, projected to show an increase of 68,000 jobs. Meanwhile, Trump's recent remarks about launching a larger-scale military operation against Iran around the time of the midterms have heightened market risk aversion. Last Friday, the three major U.S. stock indices sharply declined. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 2.86%, or over 747 points; the S&P 500 fell 1.82%, or more than 140 points; and the Dow Jones also lost over 1%. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields noticeably retreated, falling below 4.9% last Friday. Gold prices plunged by more than $150 last Friday, primarily due to rising U.S. interest rates, ongoing Middle East tensions, high oil prices fueling inflation concerns, and elevated expectations for further Federal Reserve rate hikes. I reiterate that gold is not an absolute safe-haven asset, and events such as the U.S. debt crisis are often manipulative tactics used by market players—otherwise, how could retail investors consistently fall into these traps? Isn't it evident now that when bond yields rise (i.e., bond prices fall), gold prices tend to decline? With October ending, spot gold closed below its 20-month moving average (currently around $4,072) for the first time since October 2023. Whether this signals the beginning of a prolonged downtrend remains to be seen, but it is still a sign of weakening long-term momentum. The 20-month MA on the monthly chart will act as resistance for any rebound. This level is close to the current daily 20-day MA (around $4,087), meaning the Gann square’s 45-degree angle at $4,110 represents a key medium- to long-term resistance level, while the 90-degree angle at $4,010 marks a strong short-term resistance. In the near term, gold is likely to fluctuate between $3,960 and lower levels, with a high probability of testing or even breaking below $3,810 (a Gann square horizontal level). Nevertheless, we expect gold to hold firm above $3,810, making a trade to buy the rebound around this level relatively attractive in terms of value-to-risk ratio. The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

2026-10-30

Gold Market Analysis: "Gold Price Needs to Fall to $3,810 Before a Rebound is Likely"   October 30, 2026, 9:46 AM (Completed) Yesterday, the U.S. released its preliminary estimate of third-quarter GDP, showing an annualized quarterly growth rate of 3.4%, exceeding expectations of 3.2% and surpassing the 2.2% recorded in the second quarter—marking the largest increase since the fourth quarter of last year. Private consumption expenditures (PCE) contributed 2.52 percentage points to GDP growth, the highest contribution since the first quarter of last year, while private domestic investment added another 2.73 percentage points. Although net exports continued to drag down GDP by 3.32 percentage points, overall data still supported accelerated economic expansion. Additionally, the year-on-year rise in total PCE for September widened to 3.6%, while core PCE increased by 3.1% year-on-year. These figures support further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, putting downward pressure on gold prices. In early trading in Tokyo today, gold briefly rebounded to $4,018.84 but quickly reversed course, falling as expected below the $4,000 level. The previous high from yesterday's rally was capped by the lower boundary of a prior sideways range, indicating that gold has entered a lower-tier volatility zone. Moreover, the $4,010 level lies along Gann’s 90-degree angle, forming a strong support (or resistance) point. If this level is confirmed broken, gold is likely to test $3,910 in the short term for initial support. However, this level is not robust; a stronger rebound may only emerge when prices approach $3,810. On the hourly chart, after breaking below the 20-period SMA (currently around $4,020) on Wednesday, gold has continued declining along this moving average, repeatedly failing to sustain gains upon testing it. Technically, gold faces three key resistance levels in the near term: $4,010, the 20-hour SMA, and the 50% retracement level of the largest decline since October 16 at $4,087.25. Traders anticipating a short-term bounce should watch the 20-hour SMA closely—only if gold breaks above and holds above this line can it potentially challenge higher levels. Conversely, the 20-hour SMA could also serve as an ideal short-term selling point. The above information is for reference purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

2026-10-29

Gold Market Analysis: "Rebound Ends as Gold Continues to Seek Bottom" – October 29, 2026, 11:07 AM The Federal Reserve voted 10-2 to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.75% to 4%. Fed Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack recommended a 0.25% rate hike. The post-meeting statement remained unchanged from September, but emphasized that the committee needs to accumulate more data before determining the appropriate policy stance. Fed Chair Waller stated during the press conference that economic indicators are moving in the right direction—strong consumer spending, robust capital investment, and healthy overall growth—but inflation remains too high and has stayed above target for nearly six years. He stressed the central bank's responsibility to bring inflation down. Regarding employment, the focus was primarily on price stability rather than labor market conditions, reflecting growing concerns about potential second-round inflation effects. Following the September rate hike, financial and credit conditions have begun tightening as expected. After the decision was released, interest rate futures showed a slight increase in the probability of a 0.25% hike in December, rising to 78.4%, though expectations for a 0.5% hike have now faded. Following the announcement, gold initially fluctuated between $4,025 and $4,067, then rose further toward $4,083 before retreating again. This morning, it dipped as low as $4,035 before rebounding to $4,069, followed by another test near $4,040. On the 15-minute chart, gold appears to be forming a narrowing triangle pattern. However, yesterday’s rebound peak approached the October 15 low of around $4,084.5, suggesting that gold’s reaction to the rate decision may have been manipulated. It also indicates that the rebound is likely complete, with prices poised to break below $4,000 for a deeper correction. Investors could consider placing stop-loss orders above $4,085 and sell on strength, targeting $4,000 first. The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

2026-10-27

Gold Market Analysis: Gold Price Expected to Fluctuate Within a $20 Range Today   October 27, 2026, 11:12 AM (Completed) After rebounding above $4,000 during early Asian trading yesterday, gold has remained narrowly range-bound above that level. Although it briefly dropped sharply to $3,988.92 in early New York trading, it quickly recovered, forming a two-hour reversal pattern and holding firmly above $4,000 once again. This morning, during the early Asian session, gold attempted another test below $4,000 but only dipped as low as $4,003.90. With the U.S. Federal Reserve holding its monetary policy meeting over the next two days, maintaining interest rates unchanged is already the market consensus. Additionally, with the U.S. midterm elections approaching in early November, it is unlikely that the Fed will issue a more hawkish statement than last time. Given this, there is strong reason for gold prices to rise following the announcement of the rate decision. Even if the Fed keeps rates steady and gold briefly falls below the $4,000 mark, investors should avoid making such predictions prematurely or acting on them immediately. While market prices often exhibit abnormal movements, these should not be treated as normal behavior. As we are not market price setters, it is best to wait until after the rate decision is released, observe market reactions, and then decide on appropriate actions. Today's intraday volatility is expected to remain low, but investors can still trade based on technical signals and chart patterns. Even on smaller timeframes such as one-minute charts, trends can be identified. By trading with the trend, long-term gains are still achievable. However, investors often abruptly abandon their previously stable profit strategies when facing major events, taking on excessive risk—this should be avoided. The gold price is expected to consolidate between $4,000 and $4,020 today. Personally, I would use a one-minute chart combined with the 20- and 50-period SMAs, and execute trades based on candlestick signals. The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

2026-10-26

Gold Market Analysis: Short-Term Buying on Dips Remains the Main Strategy   October 26, 2026, 11:04 AM   With the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate decision approaching, gold prices have continued to face pressure. Last Friday, gold closed below the $4,000 level, hitting a low of $3,975.64. This morning, it briefly dipped to $3,978.19 before recovering. On the hourly chart, investors may consider trading based on a potential small double-bottom rebound pattern—using $3,975 as support; if this level is breached, stop losses should be triggered. In the short term, resistance lies at $4,010, and if support holds, further upside could extend toward $4,055.45. On the daily chart, gold has also formed a double-bottom pattern, which represents a higher-level technical formation. Therefore, if the support level at $3,944.13 breaks, the downside risk could be more significant. With the Fed’s meeting imminent, interest rate futures indicate a 90.6% probability that rates will remain unchanged. Thus, if the Fed maintains current policy as expected, gold prices are likely to rally sharply. However, if the central bank remains hawkish and the likelihood of a December rate hike remains high, the direction of gold will depend largely on market sentiment and unforeseen developments. Nevertheless, given that both the hourly and daily charts show double-bottom patterns, the strategy should still focus on buying on dips. A break below the key Gann square 90-degree angle support at $4,010 would signal a shift in momentum and act as resistance for any short-term rebound. If gold consolidates below $4,010 ahead of the Fed announcement, a major breakout is expected afterward—particularly downward—which could signal the start of a new downtrend. Still, I anticipate gold will hold above the $4,000 level and potentially trade within a range between $4,000 and $4,200. The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

2026-10-23

Gold Market Analysis: "Price at 4010—Gann Angle Offers Strong Support, Hard to Break"   Completed on October 23, 2026, 10:55 AM The gold price indeed broke downward through the horizontal range on the hourly chart. Although it briefly rebounded sharply to $4,091.74 after dipping below the lower boundary of the sideways consolidation zone since September 28 at $4,066.57, it soon faced renewed selling pressure and closed the New York session near $4,021.27. After Asian markets opened today, there was no strong bullish counterattack; bears continued their advance, pushing prices as low as $3,986.84 before a gradual recovery that eventually reclaimed the $4,000 level. From a Gann Square perspective, $4,010 lies along the 90-degree angle, suggesting strong support at this level for now. Short-term strategy should focus primarily on buying on pullbacks. The previous consolidation lows at $4,066.57 and $4,073.51 have now turned from support into resistance. Further upside would face major resistance around $4,110. Moreover, since gold broke down through the sideways range ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve interest rate decision, it is expected to remain volatile below the former consolidation floor until the Fed announces unchanged rates, at which point it may break higher and re-enter the prior range. However, given market expectations that the Fed will likely raise rates by 25 basis points in December, a breakout above the upper boundary of the consolidation zone seems unlikely. Overall, the trend remains bearish. Given the critical nature of the $4,010 level and the fact that gold has already dipped below the $4,000 mark, investors should remain cautious about further tests of this support during the day. A test of this year's low at $3,944.23 cannot be ruled out, but I believe a significant breakdown is unlikely. On the monthly chart, gold has now fallen below the 20-period SMA (at $4,040), which could signal a powerful rebound or even a potential medium-term bottom. As previously advised, avoid shorting at key support levels ($4,010 and $4,000); instead, wait for a clear break below before entering short positions. For today, the main strategy remains buying on dips. The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

2026-10-22

Gold Market Analysis: "Current Gold Situation Favoring Short-Term Buy and Long-Term Sell"   October 22, 2026, 10:40 AM (Completed) Gold prices have maintained a fluctuating weak trend. From the hourly chart, it is evident that after peaking at $4,190 on Monday this week, gold has declined repeatedly, breaking below $4,110 multiple times. The highest rebound during this period occurred on Tuesday at $4,155.45, which further strengthens my belief that gold is about to break downward. However, investors should remain patient—rather than shorting at the current sideways range's lower boundary, it would be wiser to wait until gold clearly falls below $4,100 before entering a sell position. Recent fluctuations in gold prices are gradually draining speculative strength. After two or three cycles of upward pushes and downward corrections, not only are low-end buyers and high-end bulls weakened, but their confidence is also eroded. When gold finally breaks out decisively, these speculators may hesitate to follow the trend, missing profitable opportunities. Since gold remains in a sideways pattern, investors should adopt a strategy of selling at higher levels and buying at lower ones. If bearish, focus solely on selling at higher levels, or use relatively larger positions for selling while maintaining smaller positions for buying. From a short-term cyclical perspective, gold today (based on New York close) touched a bottom and rebounded. However, investors must closely monitor whether this bottom has truly formed, or if prices will continue to make new lows—possibly testing the October 15 low of $4,073.5, or even the entire sideways range’s support level since September 28 at $4,066.5—before recovering. A significant downward breakout could occur if prices fall below the lower boundary of the consolidation zone. Setting aside speculation, recent hourly price action shows a clear downward shift in volatility, with $4,155.45 once again emerging as the key short-term resistance level. The trading range has compressed to approximately $4,100–$4,155. Under these conditions, a strategy of short-term buying and long-term selling appears more aligned with the current market dynamics. The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

2026-10-21

Gold Market Analysis: "Price Likely to Break Out of Sideways Range"   October 21, 2026, 10:52 AM   Gold prices have shown a soft performance. Although they surged earlier in New York trading yesterday to $4,155.45, they were capped by the hourly 50SMA at $4,153 and quickly reversed, falling further to $4,106.52 during early Tokyo session trading—the lowest level since last Friday. Subsequent rebound efforts have been weak, with the hourly 20SMA at $4,123 once again acting as short-term resistance. With the Federal Reserve set to hold its monetary policy meeting next Tuesday, expectations for a rate hike are low. The market appears eager to push gold lower ahead of the announcement to create room for an upward move. If officials maintain interest rates unchanged as expected, gold could rally sharply. However, $4,210 is likely to remain a strong resistance level. Conversely, if a surprise rate hike occurs, gold may break down further, leading to significant losses for long positions established at lower levels. Since falling below $4,200 on September 28, gold has been range-bound. A major breakout is now anticipated. With only five trading days remaining before the Fed's decision, gold has once again tested the $4,110 level. Investors should therefore be cautious about the risk of a downward breakout from the current sideways range, potentially testing the $4,000 support. That said, traders can still follow technical signals to make buy or sell decisions. Currently, this could represent a buying opportunity, but a drop below $4,100 would warrant immediate stop-loss orders. For intraday rebounds, key resistance levels include the hourly 50SMA and $4,160. The above information is for reference purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

2026-10-20

Gold Market Analysis: "Short-Term Volatility, Long-Term Bearish Bias"   October 20, 2026, 10:58 AM (Completed) Gold prices remain broadly range-bound between $4,100 and $4,200. On the daily chart, gold has broken above the 20-period SMA ($4,170) in each of the past two trading sessions, and another ascending flag pattern is now forming. Therefore, I still believe there is a high probability that gold will break above the daily 20SMA in the near term. Once this level is breached, it is expected to first target the strong resistance at the Gann square's 180-degree angle at $4,210. A move beyond this level would then aim for the 50SMA at $4,321. Looking at SPDR’s holdings, after surpassing 1,000 tons in late September 2025, they rose to 1,101 tons by the end of February this year. Since then, although levels have remained above 1,000 tons, recent holdings have fluctuated around 1,050 tons, with minor increases and decreases within a 10-ton range. Historically, SPDR holdings peaked above 1,300 tons in mid-2010, reaching a record high of 1,353.35 tons in early December 2012. However, they subsequently declined steadily, dropping to 638.8 tons by early December 2015 before rising again, peaking at 1,277.65 tons in October 2020. I believe these movements are closely linked to the European debt crisis in 2010 and the European Central Bank’s implementation of quantitative easing in March 2016. Currently, as major global central banks enter tightening cycles, SPDR’s gold holdings are expected to continue declining, with 1,000 tons serving as a key threshold between bullish and bearish sentiment. Gold prices and SPDR holdings are currently showing divergence. Gold hit a historical high near $5,600 in January this year, yet inventory levels failed to rise in tandem. If holdings fall below 1,000 tons, support may only be found around 900 tons. Meanwhile, $4,000 remains a crucial support level; if breached, the next potential test zone would be $3,000. In October, gold briefly dipped to $4,066—very close to the monthly 20SMA at $4,046—indicating significant upward pressure. A breakdown below this line could signal a medium-term correction, testing the monthly 50SMA at $2,915. In the short term, traders can consider a high-sell-low-buy strategy between $4,110 and $4,210. Should prices rally to $4,380–$4,410, a sell-on-rise approach would be advisable. The above information is for reference purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

2026-10-16

Gold Market Analysis: "High Probability of Gold Breaking Above 20-Day Moving Average" – October 16, 2026, 10:54 AM (Completed) Yesterday, the U.S. released its September PPI data, which rose by 1.3% month-on-month—the largest increase since March 2022—and climbed 6.3% year-on-year—the highest gain since December 2022. The surge was primarily driven by a 10.2% monthly rise in energy product prices. However, similar to the CPI release, the impact on gold prices was brief. After briefly dipping to $4,131.33, gold quickly rebounded and continued to push higher throughout the day, reaching a high of $4,177.60 toward the end of New York trading before showing a noticeable pullback. Following the release of inflation data exceeding expectations, gold initially faced short-term selling pressure but subsequently resumed an upward trend. I believe this shift is influenced by differing views among Federal Reserve officials regarding inflation. For instance, San Francisco Fed President Daly stated that policymakers still have time to assess economic developments and do not need to act hastily at the October meeting. While she acknowledged that further rate adjustments may be necessary in the future, she emphasized that labor market stability must be maintained, and thus there should be no artificial pressure to raise rates without clear urgency. Meanwhile, New York Fed President Williams suggested that another rate hike might be needed this year, but he does not anticipate further increases in 2027. Of course, some officials remain supportive of tightening. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee expressed disappointment with the September inflation figures, noting persistent strength in service-sector inflation, which may indicate overheated demand. Nevertheless, he prefers to wait for more data before deciding whether to support additional hikes, stressing that if inflation remains above target, authorities cannot afford to ignore it. Fed Vice Chair for Supervisory Affairs Bowman pointed out that while inflation remains above target, after the September rate hike, there is sufficient time to monitor how financial conditions evolve. Clearly, his stance suggests no immediate need for further action. Currently, gold remains within a range of approximately $4,066 to $4,227 on the hourly chart. Although yesterday’s rebound did not fully recover Wednesday’s losses, it can still be interpreted as a two-day reversal pattern—a relatively strong signal of a potential trend change. Given that recent price movements have closely followed the daily 20-period SMA at $4,191, the likelihood of gold breaking above this level and testing $4,210 remains high. A rally equivalent to 38.2% of the drop since August 25 could lift prices to $4,307.33—very close to the Gann 225-degree angle level at $4,310. The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

2026-10-15

Gold Market Analysis: "Short-Term Gold Remains in a Sideways Trading Range"   October 15, 2026, 11:15 AM (Completed) U.S. September CPI data indicated rising inflation, triggering a sharp decline in gold prices. The latest figures showed that overall CPI rose 3.7% year-on-year in September, above the previous reading of 3.4% and market expectations of 3.6%. On a month-on-month basis, CPI increased by 0.6%, also exceeding both the prior figure of 0.4% and the expected 0.6%. Core CPI rose 2.6% annually, surpassing the previous 2.4% and forecasted 2.5%, while the monthly increase stood at 0.3%, matching the prior reading but still higher than the expected 0.2%. Interest rate futures suggest that market expectations for a 25-basis-point rate hike by the end of this month have risen to 27.1%, while the probability of no change has slightly declined to 77.9%. Nevertheless, this still reflects a high likelihood that rates will remain unchanged this month. In my view, since the Federal Reserve signaled in its September economic outlook that another rate hike might occur later this year, it is unlikely to act prematurely this month. If a hike were implemented now, uncertainty would arise over whether another increase would follow in December, potentially destabilizing financial markets. By postponing any decision until December, the Fed could use its updated economic projections to clearly communicate committee members’ views on future interest rate trends. Gold prices dropped sharply following the inflation data, falling below $4,100 and touching a low of $4,073.51 before recovering. On the hourly chart, the RSI dipped as low as 11 before gradually regaining ground. This morning, Asian trading sessions fully recovered the losses from the inflation report, with gold briefly reaching a high of $4,161.81. Although gold broke down from the bullish flag pattern on the daily chart, it has formed a double bottom on the hourly timeframe. While gold has not yet launched a sustained upward move, this merely indicates that it remains within the sideways consolidation range established after the steep drop on September 25. For the near term, $4,110 remains a key support level, while resistance lies between $4,210 and $4,230. Optimistically, gold may hold above $4,110 throughout the day. The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

2026-10-14

Gold Market Analysis: Gold Price Likely to Test Higher Levels Intraday   October 14, 2026, 11:05 AM   Gold prices have resumed volatile movements. From the 5-minute chart, gold broke above and below its previous highs this morning before rebounding sharply—potentially causing disproportionate losses for short-term traders. On the chart pattern, gold has formed a sideways consolidation zone below approximately $4,166, with wide fluctuations suggesting a possible breakout after clearing resistance. Looking at the daily chart, gold is developing an ascending flag pattern. Provided it holds above or closes higher than $4,130, gold could break upward through the 20-period SMA ($4,214) today or over the next two days, subsequently targeting $4,310. However, on the hourly chart, gold has recently formed a flat-bottomed descending triangle. Therefore, if it clearly breaks below $4,144, the projected downside target would be around $4,048. Yet, today’s low of $4,144.6 is close to the 50% retracement level of the largest gain since October 7, which stands at $4,141.9. With prices now back above $4,160—above the mid-point of the $4,210–$4,310 range—the likelihood of testing higher levels intraday increases significantly. The immediate upside targets are $4,175 and $4,195. On the data front, the U.S. will release September CPI figures tonight. The expected year-on-year increase is projected to rise from 3.4% to 3.6%, while core inflation is expected to expand from 2.4% to 2.5%. Unless the rise exceeds expectations, gold should avoid significant declines and may even continue rising. Conversely, if the increase moderates or monthly changes turn negative, that would be highly favorable for gold, making a breakout above $4,310 entirely plausible. The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

2026-10-13

Gold Market Analysis: "Strong Upside Wave 3 Could Emerge at Any Time"   October 13, 2026, 10:28 AM (Completed) Yesterday, gold prices failed to hold above $4,200 and instead declined steadily from early Asian session highs, only recovering slightly after stabilizing at $4,154.85 upon New York market open. Although the price action fell short of expectations, this was not without reason. First, U.S. lawmakers strongly urged Trump to reverse his decision to purchase diesel from Russia. Second, oil prices did not drop significantly in response to the news. Moreover, markets appear more focused on the future direction of U.S. interest rates than on short-term factors favorable to gold. As such, gold’s movement hinges entirely on how the market interprets the news about U.S. purchases of Russian oil. From a technical standpoint, yesterday's high reached $4,217.47—less than $10 below the 20-period SMA on the daily chart ($4,226)—marking the closest approach to this moving average since September 24. This indicates that the 20SMA still presents a significant resistance level. Investors might question whether breaking through this level is really so difficult. However, those with genuine intent understand that attempting to breach such resistance requires careful planning rather than merely pushing past it. If there is no strong buying support above this level—or if heavy selling pressure accumulates—attempting to drive prices higher by artificially inflating averages could place traders at serious risk. In contrast, taking advantage of positive news to sell off and gradually accumulate positions at lower levels allows for building momentum before launching an upward move, which produces far better results. In fact, gold only briefly dipped below the minor Gann angle at $4,160 before rebounding. On the hourly chart, the pullback from yesterday’s high represented just over 38.2% of the gains seen since last Wednesday. Even if the correction reaches 50% at $4,141.9, it would still reflect robust underlying bullish momentum. Looking at the daily chart, counting from last week’s low at $4,066.06, the accumulated retracement exceeds 78.6% of the rally since June 30—a highly significant Fibonacci ratio. Although I remain cautious, according to Elliott Wave theory, gold may have already completed its intermediate corrective wave 2 and is now poised to enter a powerful third wave upward. Under this scenario, gold could rise to $5,285.11 in the medium term. Investors should watch closely: once gold breaks above the daily 20SMA and closes above it for three consecutive trading sessions, the likelihood of a sustained medium-term uptrend increases dramatically. The above content is for reference purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

2026-10-12

Gold Market Analysis: Consolidation Above $4,200 Awaits Breakout – 12/10/2026 10:54 AM   Gold prices have risen as expected, climbing sharply in early Asian trading on Friday with a strong bullish candle, reaching a high of $4,207.51 during Tokyo midday session. Although it corrected after a period of severe overbought conditions, dipping to $4,168.74 in early New York trading, the hourly chart shows that gold remains on an upward trajectory along the 20-period SMA (currently around $4,192). It regained momentum late in the New York session by breaking above $4,200 again before encountering renewed selling pressure. This morning, after briefly testing below the 20SMA, gold recovered and resumed its upward drive, reaching a temporary high of $4,217.22, followed by consolidation around the $4,210 level. The strength in gold is linked to the U.S. easing sanctions against Russia. Russia will immediately supply 300,000 tons of diesel globally, followed by another 500,000 tons in November, then increase further by 1 million tons, and subsequently add another 3 million tons in the short term. Notably, diesel accounts for over 28% of global energy consumption—approximately 29 million barrels per day—making it the single largest fuel product. Russia is the world’s second-largest diesel exporter, having shipped about 34.2 million tons last year, equivalent to roughly 700,000 barrels daily. Even if this policy is only temporarily maintained until April next year, it is sufficient to trigger a sharp drop in international oil prices, thereby easing inflationary pressures and reducing the urgency for further Federal Reserve rate hikes—factors that naturally benefit gold prices. At $4,210, gold has crossed the Gann 180-degree angle, which acts as a key resistance level. Having now broken through, this former resistance could turn into support, potentially paving the way for gold to target $4,310. Given the impact of the aforementioned news, gold is expected to consolidate firmly above $4,210 in the near term. On the hourly chart, the previous peak at $4,227.7 represents the first technical resistance following the $4,210 breakout, while the correction low on September 17 at $4,235.29 marks the second resistance level. Breaking above this would open the door to targeting $4,260, and eventually $4,310. Therefore, investors should remain cautious of potential rapid pullbacks in the short term. The 20SMA on the hourly chart serves as the first major support level. It is anticipated that gold will consolidate above $4,200 before breaking through $4,210 and advancing toward higher levels. The above information is for reference purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

2026-10-09

Gold Market Analysis: "Gold Price Poised to Break Above $4,210" – September 10, 2026, 10:39 AM (Completed) After rebounding above $4,100 on Wednesday, gold has since maintained a closing level above this mark on the hourly chart. Although it briefly tested $4,100 again at London's close yesterday, it stabilized around $4,105.45 and closed higher with a bullish reversal pattern, followed by a gradual uptick. In today’s early Asian session, gold surged sharply by $32, reaching a high of $4,175.36—nearly touching the TD line projection target of $4,184. Technically, there is potential for further upside. On the hourly chart, gold has already broken above the higher-level TD descending trendline, with an estimated projected rise toward $4,248. However, if during the move toward this target, gold falls below the TD ascending trendline, signaling a bearish shift, investors should abandon their buy strategy and instead sell accordingly. Investment success hinges on direction—only when the direction is correct can positive outcomes follow. Volatility is inherent in markets; investors must not focus solely on personal positions while overlooking directional shifts caused by price fluctuations. Turning points always emerge at some moment—the earliest to recognize them becomes the biggest winner. Optimistically, this current upward momentum could extend into early next week. Nevertheless, $4,210 represents a strong resistance level. Once gold surpasses this point, significant selling pressure is expected. Currently, gold has shown a clear technical breakout, so the strategy should primarily focus on buying on pullbacks. $4,143 will be considered a key intraday support level. It is anticipated that gold will consolidate above this level before launching a new offensive push to break through $4,210. The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

2026-10-08

Gold Market Analysis: "Gold Price Expected to Hold Steady Above 4110, Testing Higher Levels"   October 8, 2026, 11:08 AM (Completed) The gold price has maintained a volatile pattern of upward rallies and pullbacks. Yesterday, it sharply declined early in New York trading to $4,066.57 before gradually recovering. Nevertheless, it closed at $4,108.36—the lowest level since August 6—despite a further rebound this morning. On the daily chart, gold has already broken below the recent sideways range's lower boundary. Yesterday’s high of $4,170.12 now acts as a new short-term resistance level. Even if gold closes above this level, it would merely signal a return to the previous consolidation zone. A definitive bullish reversal would only be confirmed if gold closes above $4,280.56. On the hourly chart, gold has broken out of its recent sideways formation and is now forming a descending channel. The upper extension of the downward trendline around $4,160 serves as the immediate resistance. According to TD sequence analysis, gold has effectively broken above the TD descending trendline on the hourly chart, with a projected target of approximately $4,184. Therefore, even if gold surpasses the resistance of the descending trendline since October 2 (currently around $4,160), it is likely to face resistance near $4,184. Yesterday’s sharp drop caused the 9-period RSI on the hourly chart to fall as low as 18, triggering a subsequent technical rebound. However, the overall trend remains bearish. At this stage, investors should pay closer attention: large players may use the sudden decline to strengthen their bearish positions, aiming for higher profits by setting longer-term targets and taking on greater risk. This often leads them to ignore short-term reversal signals. As a result, during rebounds, they may aggressively add to their positions against the trend. When stopped out, such traders might develop a retaliatory mindset, turning their trading into emotional reactions that continue until capital is exhausted before returning to rationality. Having a clear direction isn't problematic; however, when market conditions contradict one's position, traders should avoid going against the trend. Some apparent opportunities could simply be temporary signals generated by price adjustments. Without confirmation from a higher time frame, investors must always prepare for risk management and potential losses before entering any trade. In the short term, gold is expected to stabilize above $4,110, with increased chances of breaking through $4,160 and testing $4,185 and $4,210. The above information is for reference purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

2026-10-07

Gold Market Analysis: "Double Top Forming, Target at $4,102" – July 10, 2026, 11:06 AM Yesterday, during the early Asian session, spot gold prices dipped as low as $4,103.7 before rebounding. On the hourly chart, gold peaked at $4,179.72 and then $4,184.48 during the initial and closing phases of the New York session, respectively. Following a bearish divergence with the 9RSI indicator, prices subsequently declined. This morning, gold fell to $4,140.36 before recovering slightly. Although yesterday's daily range exceeded $80, the maximum gain was less than $45, indicating that current price movements are characterized by wide fluctuations—effectively eliminating speculative traders who lack sufficient capital or rely heavily on leverage. On the daily chart, it is evident that after a large bearish candlestick on September 28, gold has been consolidating in a sideways pattern near lower levels. Yesterday’s single-day reversal did not form a definitive trend reversal signal. A true upward shift would only be confirmed if gold breaks above $4,280.56 and closes above this level. Currently, the market remains in a consolidation phase. I believe this period is allowing gold to accumulate momentum ahead of a potential downward breakout. The more long positions (buying interest) built up now, the stronger the downward thrust will be once the break occurs (as stop-loss orders from longs increase selling pressure). Conversely, if short positions grow significantly, a subsequent upward breakout could accelerate gains. However, at present, the technical setup suggests a likely downward move. Therefore, from a strategic standpoint, those bearish on gold should avoid placing large bets at this stage. Stop-loss orders must not be set too far out, as sharp volatility could trigger premature exits. Subsequent re-entry with reduced position sizes may then become necessary due to accumulated losses. For now, the key support level remains around $4,110, while resistance lies at $4,210. Short-term sellers should consider exiting when gold rises above $4,210. If a downward breakout occurs, gold is likely to test the $4,000 level. In the short term, the neckline of the double top formation at $4,143.59 provides a target for the measured decline, pointing toward $4,102.7. The above information is for reference purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

2026-10-06

Gold Market Analysis: "Price Expected to Consolidate Above $4,000" – June 10, 2026, 11:05 AM The gold price's reaction to Friday's U.S. non-farm payroll report for September has further confirmed its downward reversal. On the hourly chart, after breaking above and then below its previous peak on Friday, gold has been under sustained pressure around $4,130. I anticipate a swift breakdown below the weak Gann 135-degree support level at $4,110, with $4,100 also likely to be breached. The key target will be $4,000. Investors should mentally prepare for gold to break out of its year-long trading range. All decisions should be guided by market signals rather than personal bias. Gold has not continued rising despite the weaker-than-expected August U.S. non-farm data, nor is it likely to strengthen due to the Fed’s decision to hold rates steady this month, given the looming threat of rate hikes in December. As we enter the fourth quarter, gold has already fallen below the 2025 closing level of $4,315.09. Boldly speaking, this year could mark the first annual decline since 2022, signaling the end of the four-year-plus bullish trend. Holding above the $4,000 psychological level will be crucial. On the weekly chart, gold is approaching the 38.2% retracement level of its largest gain since September 2022—$4,074.68. This level is expected to be breached, with a deeper correction toward the 50% retracement at $3,604.90 before stabilization occurs. Additionally, using Fibonacci extensions to measure the move since mid-April, a 100% extension would bring prices down to $3,752.19. In the short term, the top of the dense cluster at $4,170 on the hourly chart represents major resistance. A retest above $4,210 seems unlikely, and gold is expected to form a new consolidation zone between $4,000 and $4,110. The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

2026-10-05

Gold Market Analysis: "Gold Price Likely to Test $4,000 Level"   October 5, 2026, 11:10 AM (Completed) U.S. non-farm payroll data for September came in unexpectedly weak, with only 29,000 new jobs added—far below the expected 89,000. The August figure was also revised down from 162,000 to 133,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2% from 4.1%. Additionally, the year-on-year increase in average hourly earnings slowed from 3.1% to 3.0%. Following the release, the U.S. dollar sharply declined, pushing spot gold prices as high as $4,227.7 within five minutes—the intraday peak—but then quickly reversed course. Although gold briefly broke above $4,210—a level I had considered unbreakable—it triggered immediate profit-taking, sending prices down to a low of $4,125.35, marking the day’s lowest point. On the hourly chart, despite some recovery, gold briefly pierced above the 20-period SMA at $4,163 this morning before forming a bearish engulfing pattern and reversing sharply. The overall trend now resembles a descending triangle. Using Fibonacci extension levels, the next target for downside movement is estimated at $4,060.8. The disappointing U.S. employment data has raised the probability of the Federal Reserve holding interest rates steady this month to 82.3%, while the chance of a 25-basis-point hike in December has climbed to 70%. Meanwhile, second-quarter GDP growth exceeded expectations, and core PCE inflation remained stable at 3% year-on-year for the third consecutive month, while CPI still reached 3.4% annually. The Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index surged over 58.8. Even if rates remain unchanged this month, the Fed is unlikely to shift its hawkish policy stance. Therefore, after the October meeting, market focus will turn to another 25-basis-point rate hike in December. Given this outlook, even if gold rebounds, it is unlikely to break through $4,210, and the price is expected to head toward the $4,000 level. The above information is for reference purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

2026-10-02

Gold Market Analysis: High Chance of Gold Price Breaking Below 4,100   October 2, 2026, 11:06 AM (Completed) Yesterday, gold prices traded sideways after rising from $4,139 to $4,193 in the Tokyo morning session, fluctuating mainly between $4,150 and $4,188—representing a rare low-risk range-bound trading environment. The price volatility clearly indicates that gold remains within a weak support zone at $4,110 and a strong resistance level at $4,210. This morning, gold sharply dropped to $4,134 before recovering quickly, yet has not managed to return to $4,160—the midpoint of the aforementioned range—and briefly tested below yesterday’s sideways trading floor, signaling continued weakness in the price trend. Tonight, the U.S. Department of Labor will release the September non-farm payroll report. As long as job changes are not extremely negative—such as a drop of 100,000 or more—gold is unlikely to reverse its downward bias. In fact, if the data disappoints expectations and triggers a sharp rebound, it would present an ideal opportunity for selling at higher levels. One reason is that the Federal Reserve stated in its September policy statement that the U.S. economy is expanding steadily, domestic consumption remains resilient, productivity growth is robust, capital spending is solid, job growth aligns with labor force expansion, and the unemployment rate has remained nearly unchanged. Moreover, the second-quarter GDP annualized quarterly figure was significantly revised upward to 2.1%, while the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index surged to 58.8 in September—returning to expansion territory and far exceeding the expected 51.2. Additionally, core PCE inflation rose 3% year-on-year for the third consecutive month. Under these economic conditions, the Fed is highly unlikely to cut interest rates; instead, it is only considering timing for further hikes. With interest rates remaining stable and trending upward, the cost of holding gold continues to rise rather than fall. Therefore, tonight's non-farm report is almost certain not to strengthen gold prices. Thus, the strategy should remain focused on selling gold on rallies. If the non-farm data turns slightly weaker and gold surges, short positions could be established between $4,180 and $4,210, with stop-loss placed above $4,210. Conversely, if the data proves strong, gold is likely to break below $4,100. Prior to the data release, gold is expected to continue volatile intraday movements. Investors may still consider selling above $4,180, with $4,150 serving as a key short-term technical support level. Once gold confirms a break below $4,110, the next target will be the psychological threshold of $4,000. The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.