Gold market analysis

2024-11-04

Last week, the price of gold rose first and then fell, and it opened at the beginning of the week. Because the situation in the Middle East did not deteriorate, it fell first, but the decline was limited. The price of gold broke through the 2700 mark, and many people in the market expected that the level of 2800 would be realized soon, so bargain hunting appeared. It had been strong before the middle of the week, and rose to a historical high of 2790 on Wednesday, only one step away from the 2800 mark. However, the ADP announced by the United States on Wednesday night was extremely strong, with a high report of 233,000 people, continuing the non-agricultural strength in September, which once convinced the market that the labor market had not weakened, so the gold market was unable to move up; On Thursday night, it turned around and fell, and the lowest fell to 2731 before it stabilized. On Friday night, the non-agricultural sector unexpectedly weakened, with an increase of only 12,000 people, far less than expected. Affected by the data, the probability of another 0.25% interest rate cut in the United States this week rose to 100%, and the gold price surged to 2761, but it did not hit a new high. The unexpected decline in non-agricultural production this time was mainly affected by the news of typhoons and strikes, not the deterioration of employment situation, thus limiting the increase; The price of gold even fell back. Looking forward to this week's Super Week in the United States, there will be a presidential election in the middle of the week, and the market is more concerned about whether the result will be obtained on Wednesday, followed by the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting postponed due to the US election, and the result will be announced at 3 am on Thursday. It is widely expected that Trump will return to the White House and the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 0.25%. However, if the election competition is fierce, I believe that trump trade in the past six months will be greatly withdrawn and the market situation will be affected. In addition, Europe and the United States will switch to winter time this week, and the opening and closing of the market will be delayed by one hour. The market situation is a bit different, so let's refer to each other.

2024-10-28

Last week, the market continued to chase the gold market, except that the global market began to loosen monetary policy, which was conducive to the development of gold prices; The tense situation in the Middle East and the approach of the US election have also made the funds dock in gold, a fund refuge. At the beginning of the week, the price of gold fluctuated and rose until it rose to 2758 in the early part of Wednesday, hitting a record high for five consecutive trading days. However, due to the resistance line of the rising track, the gold price retreated and turned to consolidation, but the gold price remained strong and maintained above $2,700. Although it has been reported that the United States and Israel restarted the Gaza talks, the situation warmed up again over the weekend, which shows that the risk sentiment in the Middle East is still quite high, the situation is not stable, and the gold price is approaching 2750 before the weekend. Looking forward to this week, I believe that the US general election and the situation in the Middle East will still support the role of gold price as a fund refuge. Another key point is the labor market data, including ADP on Wednesday and unemployment rate and non-agriculture on Friday. Last month, non-agriculture was unexpectedly strong, which reduced the market's expectation of a sharp interest rate cut. Whether it can be maintained this month will be the focus of the market. The market situation is a bit different, so let's refer to each other.

2024-10-21

Last week, the price of gold broke through the 2700 mark, and closed near the high level of the whole week. Under the enthusiastic pursuit of funds, the atmosphere was high. Although the upward trend was quite urgent, the downward pressure of funds made the price of gold less stressful. At the beginning of the week, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East continued to be tense. The Israeli killed Hamas leader Yahya Sinval, and the market risk aversion was high. In addition, the US presidential election was approaching, which highlighted the role of gold as a shelter for funds, and the price of gold rose steadily. With the end of the year approaching, European and American central banks will continue to cut interest rates, reduce the cost of gold holders and attract more funds to pursue gold. This week, there is still a lack of important economic data, and the situation in the Middle East will continue to influence the gold market. Although the US dollar continues to rebound, it has little pressure on gold, which shows that the bottom of the gold market is still strong. Another noteworthy thing is the silver market, which is also highly sought after by the market this year. The market situation is a bit different, so let's refer to each other.

2024-10-14

Following the pressure of earlier retreat, the price of gold was still under pressure at the beginning of last week, and the labor market was stronger than expected, which eliminated the possibility that the Fed would continue to cut interest rates rapidly. In the middle of the week, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of last month's interest rate meeting, which showed that the directors were divided on interest rate reduction. Although the interest rate reduction period is the general direction, the rate does not necessarily need to be reduced by half a percentage point. I believe this rate is really only a preventive adjustment, so it is not possible to cut interest rates by another percentage point before the end of the year. At one time, the price of gold was as low as 2602 Another focus of the market is the general account data. The United States announced on Thursday that the CPI in September was 2.4%, and the PPI in September was 1.8%. Although both were expected to be high, it was the lowest growth in the past three years, which really showed that the inflation risk was getting less and less. The Fed no longer needed to use the high interest rate environment to suppress prices. Gold gained momentum and regained its lost ground at the beginning of the week. Before the weekend, it once regained the position of 2661.39, refreshing the weekly high. Looking forward to this week, there are not many important economic data, and whether there will be new progress in the situation in the Middle East is the key. If Israel continues to shell, it will be more likely to cause a brush gun to go off. Before the war has subsided, funds still tend to stay in the gold market to avoid it. However, if there is an opportunity for peace talks, the price of gold may also take the opportunity to retreat from the increase of nearly 30% this year. The market situation is a bit different, so let's refer to each other.

2024-10-08

Following the trend of gold price retreat in the previous week, gold continued to be under pressure at the beginning of the week, and the price of gold failed to stabilize above 2660. At the beginning of the week, it retreated to a full-week low of 2624. However, the market was very optimistic about the outlook of the gold market. Many major banks raised their gold target prices in their third-quarter reports and fourth-quarter prospects, thinking that any correction was short-lived and limited, as the chart also shows. Although the upward momentum is slightly weaker than that in the previous three weeks, it can rebound quickly after the retreat. Although it has not stabilized above 2660, it has followed suit and continued to fluctuate around 2650. The focus of the whole week was on the data of the Labor Department of the United States. However, at the beginning of the week, Israel opened fire on the south of Lebanon, and the war was on the verge. Geopolitical winds supported the development of gold prices. On Wednesday, small non-agricultural ADP reported 143,000 people, which was better than expected, limiting the upward trend of gold prices. Investors were optimistic that the performance of the labor market might remain strong. On Friday night, the non-agricultural ADP reported 254,000 people, far exceeding the expected upper limit, and the US dollar rebounded rapidly. Earlier, the United States cut interest rates by half a percentage point in response to the increased risks in the labor market. The market once hoped that the United States would cut interest rates by 1 percentage point before the end of the year. However, after the release of strong non-agricultural data, the probability of cutting interest rates by 1 percentage point before the end of the year or by half a percentage point in November dropped sharply to near zero, and the opportunity for the Fed to cut interest rates sharply was dashed. The public again disagreed on the process of the Fed's interest rate reduction period, which made the gold price extremely high. Looking forward to this week, the United States will release inflation data CPI and PPI. After the labor market turns prosperous, whether inflation will become the Fed's policy risk again is also the focus of the market, and it will definitely be watched. The market situation is a bit different, so let's refer to each other.

2024-09-23

Last week, the three major central banks discussed interest rates, which was a global economic super week. The Bank of England and the Bank of Japan held their interest rates unchanged for the time being. However, the Federal Reserve, which was the most concerned in the world, announced that it would cut interest rates by half a percentage point after discussing interest rates, which was the first time in more than four years, and the rate cut was within the expected upper limit. In the statement after the meeting, Chairman Powell said that if he knew that the labor market was so weak in July, he would start to cut interest rates ahead of schedule, but he said that he should not expect this pace every time to cut interest rates. After the interest rate cut was announced, the price of gold rushed to the 2600 mark for the first time, and profit-taking occurred that night, once falling back to the level of 2550. After the profit-taking, the price of gold immediately rose again, reaching a new high on Friday night, reaching a maximum of 2625.73, and stabilizing the market above 2600. Many big banks raised their year-end target prices one after another. Most traders on Wall Street accepted the arrival of the golden bull market, and the market sentiment was very optimistic. In terms of the US dollar, since Britain and Japan have not cut interest rates, and the United States has cut interest rates again, it will have a certain impact on the US dollar index. Although it narrowly guarded the 100 mark last week, I believe there is still downward pressure. Looking forward to this week, the United States will announce the PCE price index. I believe that inflation has begun to be controlled, and it is expected to fall further. It is expected to continue to support the pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The market situation is a bit bleak. Let's refer to each other.

2024-09-18

Re-ignite the interest rate cut by half a percentage point before the interest rate discussion. I hope that the price of gold will hit the biggest weekly increase in nearly four years. Last week, the US dollar fell again, and inflation is no longer a threat. The market is looking forward to the Fed's interest rate reduction meeting this week. In addition to the official interest rate reduction period, it is even more likely to start cutting interest rates sharply. The probability of reducing interest rates by half a percentage point this week has increased from 20% to nearly 50%, and it is expected to reduce interest rates by as much as one percentage point before the end of the year. That is, there will be room for at least one interest rate reduction by half a percentage point in the remaining three meetings this year, which will undoubtedly add insult to injury to the weakening US dollar. In the middle of the week, the CPI and PPI of the United States were 2.5% and 1.7% respectively, which were lower than expected. The market was no longer afraid that the price level would deteriorate again, while the European Central Bank cut interest rates, which also worried the market that the global economy was at risk of weakening. Therefore, investors believed that the United States, as the locomotive of the global economy, must speed up interest rate cuts to cope with the risk of global economic downturn. Since Thursday night, the probability of interest rate futures cutting by half a percentage point from the Federal Reserve in September has risen sharply, and the price of gold quickly broke through the historical high. On Friday, the Looking forward to this week, the interest rate meeting will definitely be the focus of the market. If the interest rate is reduced by half a percentage point, it will help the gold price to develop in the direction of 2600. However, even if it is only reduced by 0.25 percentage point, we should pay attention to the bitmap. Earlier, the market expectation and bitmap tend to gradually reduce interest rates. However, if this bitmap shows that the interest rate will be reduced more sharply at the end of the year, even in 2025, it will hopefully extend the room for the gold price to rise. We need to pay attention to the orientation of the bitmap of directors and the market situation.

2024-09-09

The price of gold opened at 2502.66 last week and closed at 2497.23, with a slight drop of $5 for the whole week. However, the high and low prices fluctuated by more than $50, consolidating around the historical high, but the breakthrough momentum was not high. The market has fully digested the interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the middle of the month, but there are still differences on how much to cut interest rates. The US dollar index has been continuously pressured to the 100 mark in recent months and began to struggle, which has also caused the price of gold to rise and fall repeatedly. At the beginning of the week, it was the Labor Day holiday in the United States, and the market trading was quiet. However, the foreign exchange index of the United States was approaching the psychological mark of 100, and the dollar received great support, which also suppressed the gold price from falling to the low of 2471.85 in the past two weeks. From 2470 to 2480, the price of gold was at a short key level. After the wave broke earlier, the resistance became supportive. Therefore, when it fell to this level last week, there was a rebound in buying support. On Thursday night, small non-agricultural and non-agricultural were worse than expected, which once stimulated the price of gold to rise and approached a record high, but it was unable to break through. In addition, the unemployment rate improved and fell back to 4.2%, which was the first decrease since the labor market began to deteriorate in May. The market did not see the overall deterioration of the labor market, which caused the gold price to fall back before Friday, but it still held the key level and closed at 2497.23, which was limited to consolidation for the whole week. The market has generally expected the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 1/4% in the middle of the month. However, the possibility of reducing interest rates by half a percentage point was over-digested earlier, so the high price of gold will be blocked in the short term. Technically, the price of gold will stabilize in the short and medium term thanks to the support range of 2470 to 2480, and it will be consolidated in a new range of volatility for a breakthrough. This week, the United States will release CPI, which is the last inflation data before the interest rate meeting. It also has some implications for the interest rate meeting, and the market situation is a little bit slow.

2024-09-02

At the beginning of last week, gold stabilized and opened above 2512. The market has highly expected the US to start the interest rate reduction cycle in September. The decline of the US dollar supported the stabilization of gold, but the high price of gold was also insufficient. Although officials of the Federal Reserve sent pigeons several times, the economic data did not show that there was an urgent need to cut interest rates by half a percentage point in September. After the market broke through the 2500 mark, investors' enthusiasm began to decline, and the upward trend slowed down. The market was most concerned about the performance of inflation data over the weekend. PCE inflation in the United States continued to slow down, with the core figure reported at 2.6%, indicating that the price level was under control. As pointed out by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, the inflation risk decreased, while the labor market risk increased. However, the slowdown in inflation did not stimulate the gold price to climb further. On the contrary, it was only after the gold price retreated below 2500 on Friday night that it stabilized. It can be seen that the market has begun to ignore inflation concerns and the focus will be on the performance of the labor market. This week, Monday is the Labor Day holiday in the United States, and the market conditions will be relatively light. On Thursday and Friday, there are small non-agricultural and non-agricultural data, which are expected to improve compared with last month. However, if it worsens again, it will probably stimulate the possibility of reducing interest rates by half a percentage point in September, thus supporting the improvement of gold prices. The market situation is a bit different, so let's refer to each other.

2024-08-26

Last week, gold mainly waited for the Fed's words, hoping that there would be guidelines to consider when and how much the United States would cut interest rates. After the end of the global opening tide, the focus of the market return was on the budget of the US interest rate reduction period. On Tuesday, officials sent pigeons to push the gold price to a new high, and it only began to take a retreat when it rose to 2531.66. However, like the past trend, every retreat of gold was an opportunity to enter the market, and the upward trend was not reversed. The price of gold retreated to 2470.81 once in a week, and fell to the previous three peak positions. The resistance became supportive and gained the momentum of rebound. At the Jackson Hole meeting on Friday night, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivered a speech, saying that the inflation risk was declining, while the labor market risk was rising, and it was clear that there was no suspense to cut interest rates in September. The market even looked forward to a possible reduction of nearly 1% before the end of the year, the dollar weakened further, and the price of gold stabilized and rebounded again, and stabilized at 2500 for the whole week. Looking forward to this week, the focus is on the PCE data of the weekend. The recent inflation shows that the price level has stabilized. I believe that the interest rate reduction period will start without hindrance. If inflation falls further, it can even support the gold price to make further progress and strengthen. The market situation is a little bit worse. Let's refer to each other.

2024-08-19

Last week, Carry trade came to an end, the global stock market rebounded, and the gold market that was once dragged down was able to rise again, and broke through a record high. History often repeats itself. After every small stock market disaster is dragged down, the tide of unpacking is over, and the funds re-anchor the gold and make the gold price hit a new high. Last week, the market focused on the US inflation data. The PPI at the beginning of the week was lower than expected, which made the gold price eager to rise. However, it did not dare to break through before the 2480 mark. Waiting for the CPI data in the middle of the week, the CPI in the middle of the week also showed that inflation was moderate and did not worsen. However, the market treated it calmly. Interest rate futures even showed that the probability of interest rate in September dropped from more than 50% to 40%, and the gold price also retreated to the low level in the week. However, the overall increase was difficult to reverse. After the retreat, under the Looking back at the past seven interest rate cuts in the United States, each period lasted for 26 months on average. The last two interest rate cuts were 2.4% and 5.1% from July 19 to April 20 and July 2007 to December 2008, respectively. During the two periods, the price of gold rose from 1398 to 1686, and from 650 to 880, with an increase of at least 20%, which supported the long-term upward trend of gold. Looking ahead to this week, the Federal Reserve announced in the middle of the week that the record of last month's interest rate meeting and the Jackson Hole meeting at the weekend were the recent financial focus. After the last interest rate meeting, it was announced that the descriptive words of inflation and the labor market had been changed. This time, there must be a lot of information to lay out the interest rate reduction cycle. Although the Jackson Hole meeting started on Thursday, Powell was scheduled to give a speech on Friday, so there will be more information about the whereabouts of the Fed's interest rate before the weekend, which needs attention. For the market situation, please refer to each other.

2024-08-12

Gold continued to fluctuate violently, and Black Monday survived. Worried about the recession in the United States and the pressure to raise interest rates in Japan, the market broke out on Monday. Carry Trade opened its position and caused a global small stock market disaster. European and American stock markets plunged, and Japanese and Korean stocks rarely triggered the dissolution mechanism. The so-called Carry Trade means that some investors in the market used to borrow yen and buy stocks because of the low interest rate and low loan cost. When the market is booming, the profits earned by the stock market can repay the loan interest borrowed in yen. However, on that day, the principal and interest rate rose, the financing cost increased, or the market situation reversed, so investors' profits were not enough to repay the interest, so they needed to deleverage, that is, the so-called opening of positions. Once the opening tide started, it could even cause panic and people stepping on others. trader needed to sell shares in the market and buy back Japanese yen to pay off debts, which led to Black Monday, and the lack of liquidity also dragged down the performance of gold, and the price of gold fell below the previous week's low. Last week, there were not many economic data, and the market changes were mainly driven by the dismantling of positions. Later, in order to calm the market sentiment, the Bank of Japan's vice president Tian Zhen said that Japan would not raise interest rates when the market was unstable. The tide of opening positions immediately closed, and the gold stock market recovered the lost ground on Black Monday. The price of gold only fell by $13 for the whole week, but the fluctuation was nearly $100. The market began to focus on this week's inflation data. After the CPI was released in the past six months, gold climbed. The reason was that inflation was gradually under control, and the market began to boldly predict that inflation would no longer hinder the Fed's interest rate reduction process. The latest interest rate futures showed that the United States would definitely cut interest rates in September. The difference was whether to cut interest rates by half a percentage point or by a quarter. If inflation falls further this week, it is expected that the gold price will improve again without holding it. The market situation is a bit different, so let's refer to each other.

2024-08-05

Last week was a super economic week, with sharp fluctuations in the gold stock exchange market and sudden changes in the market trend. At the beginning of the week, investors were patiently waiting for the Federal Reserve to discuss interest rates and weekend non-agricultural data. However, recently, technology stocks retreated, and the market had already expected the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates, which caused the carry trade, which had been borrowing Japanese yen to buy US stocks, to open its positions, and the panic index soared, which made the market situation very volatile. The price of gold rose above 2,400 in the early stage, bearing the news that Hamas leader Chana was killed by the attack. After the Fed discussed the interest rate, it announced after the meeting that it revised the wording of inflation and the labor market, which meant that the interest rate had reached a critical point, the interest rate would change at the next meeting, and gold would hit upward again until the United States announced that the number of non-agricultural jobs only increased by 114,000, and the price of gold rose to a weekly high of 2,477.61, which was just one step away from the historical high. However, after the interest rate of gold was discussed, the high level was repeated. Although investors expected the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, they were also worried about the recession in the United States. Both the United States and the Nikkei index suffered a small stock market crash, and carry trade opened its position, and the panic index rose to 25, which made the market capital lack liquidity, and gold also quickly fell back from the high level. According to the experience of living, every time there is a small stock market crash and carry trade's opening, especially the retreat of technology stocks, the gold market will be under pressure first, because investors need to make a profit first and make up for the stock market, which leads to the pressure of closing gold. However, when the opening tide is completed every time, the price of gold can regain its momentum and hit a new high, so investors can also seize every opportunity of retreat to absorb it. After a week of heavy economic news, there are not many important economies this week. The more important thing is the PMI index on Monday. The market is betting that the Fed needs to cut interest rates more quickly. Interest rate futures show that the interest rate cut in September is as fast as half a percentage point to nearly 70%, which will support the gold to hit a high level again. However, it is believed that the CARRY TRADE opening tide will still bring violent fluctuations to the gold stock exchange market in the short term. The market situation is not good. Let's refer to each other.

2024-07-29

Following the performance that the price of gold fell after hitting a new high last week, the price of gold continued to be under pressure last week. At the beginning of the week, it was mainly suppressed by technical selling. The weekly chart broke through and brought technical adjustment pressure to the chart. The market was unwilling to continue to pursue it after hitting a new high, and the lack of acceptance led to the price of gold rebounding and unable to stabilize. It hovered around the psychological barrier of $2,400 many times before the middle of the week, but it also fell through after the middle of the week and fell below the support of 2,380, thus deepening the adjustment pressure. The market was worried about the economic performance of the United States, and the panic index rose, which caused the Nasdaq and Standard & Poor's to record the biggest one-day declines in the past two years. Asset prices fell, the market opened its positions, and the yen rose, which once affected the precious metal market. The lowest price of gold fell to 2,353.12 in the week, and it didn't rebound until the PCE data was released in the United States on Friday. Although PCE didn't fall further, it didn't deteriorate significantly, and it won't hinder the market's expectation of a rate cut in September, and it may even be expected within Every time the inflation data is released recently, the gold price shows a positive performance, which shows that the market has basically digested inflation and will not delay the interest rate cut. Looking forward to this week, gold will see initial support at the low level after the retreat, and a number of heavyweight data this week will further lead the direction of gold prices. In addition to ADP, ISM manufacturing PMI near the middle of the week, and the interest rate meeting between Japan and the Bank of England, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on Thursday morning and non-agriculture on Friday are the most important. Before the interest rate cut in September, a lot of information was bound to be released at the latest interest rate meeting. Last month, the Ministry of Labor revised the non-farm jobs in May and June, which greatly strengthened the market's confidence in reducing interest rates twice. If the labor market weakens again this time, the interest rate cut cycle will probably come faster and more urgent than expected two months earlier. The market situation is a bit different, so let's refer to each other.

2024-07-22

The market has confirmed that interest rate cuts will begin in September. Last week, gold caused all kinds of markets to surge. After the US presidential candidate Trump was shot, the market swept away different doubts one by one. In addition to confirming that Trump will be elected in November, it is believed that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates for the first time in September and sweep away all doubts. After that, funds poured into the market, and the gold and US stock markets reached new highs. In the early two weeks, the market experienced a decline in CPI and a slowdown in the labor market revision, which can be said to have pushed the Fed to the road of reducing interest rates. The Fed has two major responsibilities, one is to control inflation, and the other is to maintain economic growth. If inflation has been controlled, it is necessary to ensure that the economy is improving. However, the slowdown in the labor market is an important indicator. The US economy cannot maintain a high interest rate for a long time, which is difficult for enterprises to bear and hinders the development of the labor market. In the middle of the week, the gold price surged to 2483.68, a record high, and profit-taking occurred after the period. Trump said that the Fed should not cut interest rates before November, and the market took advantage of the situation to retreat. The price of gold fell further before the weekend, and fell below the 2400 mark on Friday night, with a high retreat of nearly $90. The weekly chart was broken and the technical trend was weak. Looking forward to this week, the United States will release the most tight PCE inflation data of the Federal Reserve on Friday. Recently, inflation has dropped. After each data release, the price of gold can rise due to boosting the expectation of interest rate reduction. If PCE falls again, it is also expected to boost the opportunity for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates three times at the end of the year. The market situation is a bit different, so let's refer to each other.

2024-07-15

At the beginning of last week, the price of gold did not accept the earlier uptrend, and some time ago, the price retreated and swallowed up all the gains brought by the non-agricultural night last week. However, the price of gold softened to 2350, which was supported. After the last breakthrough of 2357 at the top of swing, the resistance became supportive. After once falling below 2350, buying quickly emerged, which continued the good tone of the price of gold and made the uptrend healthier after the retreat. On the one hand, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that cutting interest rates too early would rekindle inflation, but on the other hand, he also said that keeping interest rates at this high level for a long time would hinder economic growth. It was confirmed that the interest rate reduction cycle was very close, and interest rates would be cut as soon as inflation began to fall. After the middle of the week, inflation really cooled down, and CPI was as low as 3%, which was lower than expected. In addition, the confusion of worrying about the rebound of inflation was cleared up in the middle of the year. The Federal Reserve's expectation to cut interest rates in September rose sharply to 75%, and some market participants expected to cut interest rates again in December. The price of gold surged forward, breaking through the 2400 mark and heading for a historical high again. Although the PPI rebounded on Friday night, the price of gold continued to stabilize at the 2400 mark, and each fall was limited to retreat and then stabilized again. Looking ahead to this week, there are not many economic data. The more important ones are the US retail sales and the European Central Bank's interest rate cut. The market is likely to continue to digest the US interest rate cut space in September and support the gold price to stabilize. However, whether it can break through the historical high of 2450 is the key to the continuation of the uptrend. The market situation is not good. Let's refer to each other.

2024-07-08

After gold held steady at 2280key level in the first week, buying emerged one after another, and the chart also broke through the downward track of wave after wave, which enhanced the confidence of buyers. Therefore, the upward trend before the weekend was out of control, and it broke through and closed at a high level in the week. At the beginning of the week, the PMI released by the United States generally weakened, and it was difficult for the dollar to regain its strength, paving the way for gold to stop falling and rebound. The ADP in the middle of the week was slightly lower than expected, which paved the way for the upward trend on Friday. After the US Independence Day holiday was closed, the price of gold stabilized more and more on Friday. The focus of the market was whether the non-agricultural sector would slow down. The US market released data. Although the non-agricultural sector was slightly better than expected in June, the unemployment rate rose by 4.1%. Coupled with the sharp downward revision of the non-agricultural sector figures in April and May, the confidence of the labor market that had been supporting the US economy was greatly reduced. The price of gold fell sharply at the moment when the data was released. The market highly expects that the Fed will have a good chance to cut interest rates and start to reduce its worries about the resurgence of inflation. Looking forward to this week, the chairman of the Federal Reserve has made speeches one after another. If interest rates really start to be cut in September, Powell will have a good chance to start flying pigeons, and more inflation data such as CPI will be available at the weekend, which will confirm whether inflation will slow down. The market situation is a bit different, so let's refer to each other.

2024-07-01

The price of gold once fell below the 2300 mark last week, but it climbed repeatedly after the period. The market is digesting the space for the US to cut interest rates in September, which supported the price of gold to stabilize, but the upward trend was not enough, and it failed to get rid of the recent trend of ups and downs. At the beginning of the week, the market released good data, and the US dollar strengthened. In response to the fact that the Federal Reserve did not cut interest rates, and many countries cut interest rates one after another, the weighted index of the US dollar rose to a two-month high, thus suppressing the trend of gold prices, and only after falling below the psychological barrier of 2300 in the middle of the week could it rebound. Still holding the support position of 2280 below, the selling pressure did not dare to be too presumptuous, waiting for PCE inflation data. As other recent inflation data also showed that the price index did not deteriorate, investors digested it in advance, helping the gold price rebound above 2330. On Friday night, PCE reported 2.6%, the lowest increase since March 2021, which increased the bargaining chip of the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, and the gold price also rushed to the weekly high of 2339.77. Unfortunately, the upward trend is unsustainable, and it is still trapped in the shock range of the chart, and continues to develop in the market. Looking forward to this week, the United States will release labor market data, and the minutes of the June meeting on interest rates will be released in the middle of the week. If it is disclosed that Fed officials are more worried about inflation and postpone the interest rate reduction cycle, it may be detrimental to the price of gold. The market situation is a bit different, so let's refer to each other.

2024-06-24

Although the Fed's bitmap shows that the United States has a good chance to cut interest rates only once during the year, the market bet that there is still a chance to cut interest rates twice throughout the year, totaling half a percentage point, which supports the development of the early golden period. Last week's economic data became a market indicator, and investors hoped to get some enlightenment from the current economic situation in the United States. Retail sales at the beginning of the week were still lower than expected, and the market continued to expect to cut interest rates more than once, thus supporting the trend at the beginning of the Golden Week. Most of the time, gold prices stabilized, but there was a big reversal on Friday night. After reaching the weekly high of 2,368.72, it was unsustainable. At night, the PMI index released by the United States was better than expected, and both manufacturing and service industries were above the rising and falling boundary of 50. If the American economy did not land, there would be less interest rate cuts. Continued high interest rates for a long time increased the cost of gold holders, and the price of gold plummeted, falling below the opening price at the beginning of the week and falling by $11.64 for the whole week. On the chart, the price of gold once formed a double peak near 2440, while the two peaks were located at 2387 and 2368 respectively, showing a trend that one wave was lower than the other. To reverse the weakness, it is necessary to break the top. This week, the United States will announce the PCE price index. If the inflation data improves, the Fed is expected to have more chips to start cutting interest rates. Otherwise, high inflation will definitely continue to raise interest rates, which is not good for gold. The market situation is a bit different, so let's refer to each other.

2024-06-17

After the price of gold fell sharply last week, there was no selling pressure to follow last week, and two major changes in the market made investors wait with peace of mind. The successive inflation data in the middle of the week and the Fed's interest rate meeting are the focus of the public. Although the gold price fell below the 2300 mark last week, it stabilized above 2300 for most of last week. Inflation in the United States showed signs of slowing down. The CPI and PPI on Wednesday and Thursday did not deteriorate, which supported the conditions for reducing interest rates in the United States. However, the Fed kept the interest rate unchanged after the interest rate meeting. The bitmap showed that there was a greater chance to reduce interest rates only once at the end of the year, which was three times more than expected at the beginning of the year, which made the gold price rebound weak and held the psychological barrier of 2,300, but it was also unable to go up. Although inflation has not worsened, the Fed is cautious and still needs to control inflation with a high interest rate environment. Coupled with the booming job market, it has indeed reserved a bargaining chip for the United States to reduce interest rates, which has caused the gold price to be stuck in a state of ups and downs, making it more suitable for short-term operation. There are not many important data this week. What is more important is the retail sales of the United States on Tuesday and the PMI data on Friday. In addition, Wednesday is the June holiday in the United States, and the US market will take a day off. The market situation is a bit different, so let's refer to each other.