Gold market analysis

2025-08-27

"Gold prices are expected to remain in a range-bound pattern in the short term." 26/8/2025 9:32 Completed.  Yesterday, the gold price fluctuation narrowed significantly, with the high-low range being just over 16 dollars. As seen from the hourly chart, the gold price bottomed out at 3326 dollars in the early New York session and then rebounded. Before the New York midday, it reached a high of 3376 dollars. However, it failed to break through the high of last Friday and instead turned downward. In the early Asian session today, it dropped to 3354 dollars, slightly testing the 38.2% retracement level of the biggest increase since last Friday. Although the gold price later rose sharply to 3386 dollars, it soon returned below 3380 dollars.  Employment data influence monetary policy.  Even though the Federal Reserve is highly likely to cut interest rates in September, there are still more than three weeks until the interest rate meeting. During this period, the economic data released by the United States still leaves room for uncertainty at the end of the meeting next month. In particular, the August non-farm payroll report to be released on September 5 and the August CPI to be released on September 11 are both important considerations for the Fed's monetary policy decisions. However, the non-farm payroll report is more closely watched. If the number of new jobs remains below 100,000, it is almost certain that the Fed will cut interest rates in September.  Currently, interest rate futures suggest that the Federal Reserve is more likely to keep interest rates unchanged in October and cut them by 25 basis points in December. Additionally, the Federal Reserve will release its latest economic projections after the September interest rate meeting, including its views on the economy, inflation, and employment. The economic projections released by the Federal Reserve in June indicated that the median federal funds rate is expected to be 3.6% and 3.4% in the next two years, higher than the 3.4% and 3.1% projected in March, with a long-term target of 3%. In other words, regardless of when the Federal Reserve resumes cutting interest rates, under normal circumstances, there is only a maximum of 1.5% room for rate cuts. Due to the limited "ammunition", the Federal Reserve cannot significantly cut interest rates when the inflation rate has not reached the target, which may lead to the need for significant rate hikes in the future to suppress inflation. Therefore, even if there is a rate cut in September, it does not mean that there will definitely be further rate cuts at future meetings.  This week, it is expected to fluctuate between 3320 and 3380.  With expectations of a rate cut in September, gold prices lack a strong reason to fall sharply. Moreover, a significant decline would attract capital inflows, which is unfavorable for short sellers. Conversely, as the Federal Reserve will not hold its interest rate meeting until mid-September, even if gold prices rise sharply now to reflect the upcoming rate cut, it is difficult for them to remain at a high level. Therefore, in the short term, the key support levels for gold prices are $3,350 and $3,343. The broader range of fluctuation is expected to be between $3,320 and $3,380, and it is highly likely that the prices will fluctuate within this range this week.  The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.  MTF Special Analyst Zheng Guangfu

2025-08-26

"Gold Prices Expected to Consolidate After Sharp Rise" 25/8/2025 10:05 Completed  Federal Reserve Chair Powell delivered dovish remarks at the Jackson Hole symposium of global central banks. Powell said that the July jobs report was disappointing, and the number of new non-farm jobs in the previous two months was significantly revised downward, indicating that risks to the labor market are increasing, while inflation risks remain high, which makes the central bank's response balanced. However, he also pointed out that although the unemployment rate remains low, risks to the labor market are rising, and the policy remains "restrictive", so adjustments may be needed.  SPDR Gold ETF reduced its holdings at a high level.  Powell's remarks sent the three major U.S. stock indexes soaring, with the Dow and the Nasdaq Composite Index rising by more than 2.1% at their peak, and the S&P 500 climbing by over 1.7%. The U.S. dollar weakened against major currencies, and the spot gold price, after hitting a low of $3,321.5, rebounded sharply, approaching $3,379 before making a slight adjustment. In the early Asian session today, the gold price retreated to around $3,360. Despite the sharp rise in gold prices last Friday, SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased from 965.36 tons on August 16 to 956.77 tons from Wednesday to Friday, indicating that investors are still inclined to sell at higher prices. As for changes in open interest in gold futures, the long positions held by large funds in December gold futures decreased from 159,934 contracts on July 21 to 137,385 contracts on August 18, while the short positions held by retail investors decreased from 230,975 contracts to 209,960 contracts during the same period.  $3,350 is the first pullback support.  With expectations that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates in September, gold prices should perform relatively strongly. However, as there are still over three weeks until the September interest rate meeting, gold prices are expected to adjust first and consolidate at lower levels before climbing. In the short term, gold prices are likely to fluctuate above $3320. The first support level for a pullback today is $3350, and further adjustments are expected to hold above $3343. As gold prices are currently within a large narrowing triangle on the daily chart and last Friday saw a bullish engulfing candle with the high point very close to the downtrend line, even if today's prices break above last Friday's high and the downtrend line, it is highly likely to be a false breakout. At that time, the probability of a pullback is extremely high. For the time being, it is judged that the probability of a breakout today is not high, and gold prices are likely to adjust slowly downward.  The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.  MTF Special Analyst Zheng Guangfu

2025-08-26

"Gold Prices Expected to Consolidate After Sharp Rise" 25/8/2025 10:05 Completed  Federal Reserve Chair Powell delivered dovish remarks at the Jackson Hole symposium of global central banks. Powell said that the July jobs report was disappointing, and the number of new non-farm jobs in the previous two months was significantly revised downward, indicating that risks to the labor market are increasing, while inflation risks remain high, which makes the central bank's response balanced. However, he also pointed out that although the unemployment rate remains low, risks to the labor market are rising, and the policy remains "restrictive", so adjustments may be needed.  SPDR Gold ETF reduced its holdings at a high level.  Powell's remarks sent the three major U.S. stock indexes soaring, with the Dow and the Nasdaq Composite Index rising by more than 2.1% at their peak, and the S&P 500 climbing by over 1.7%. The U.S. dollar weakened against major currencies, and the spot gold price, after hitting a low of $3,321.5, rebounded sharply, approaching $3,379 before making a slight adjustment. In the early Asian session today, the gold price retreated to around $3,360. Despite the sharp rise in gold prices last Friday, SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased from 965.36 tons on August 16 to 956.77 tons from Wednesday to Friday, indicating that investors are still inclined to sell at higher prices. As for changes in open interest in gold futures, the long positions held by large funds in December gold futures decreased from 159,934 contracts on July 21 to 137,385 contracts on August 18, while the short positions held by retail investors decreased from 230,975 contracts to 209,960 contracts during the same period.  $3,350 is the first pullback support.  With expectations that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates in September, gold prices should perform relatively strongly. However, as there are still over three weeks until the September interest rate meeting, gold prices are expected to adjust first and consolidate at lower levels before climbing. In the short term, gold prices are likely to fluctuate above $3320. The first support level for a pullback today is $3350, and further adjustments are expected to hold above $3343. As gold prices are currently within a large narrowing triangle on the daily chart and last Friday saw a bullish engulfing candle with the high point very close to the downtrend line, even if today's prices break above last Friday's high and the downtrend line, it is highly likely to be a false breakout. At that time, the probability of a pullback is extremely high. For the time being, it is judged that the probability of a breakout today is not high, and gold prices are likely to adjust slowly downward.  The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.  MTF Special Analyst Zheng Guangfu

2025-08-26

"Gold Prices Expected to Consolidate After Sharp Rise" 25/8/2025 10:05 Completed  Federal Reserve Chair Powell delivered dovish remarks at the Jackson Hole symposium of global central banks. Powell said that the July jobs report was disappointing, and the number of new non-farm jobs in the previous two months was significantly revised downward, indicating that risks to the labor market are increasing, while inflation risks remain high, which makes the central bank's response balanced. However, he also pointed out that although the unemployment rate remains low, risks to the labor market are rising, and the policy remains "restrictive", so adjustments may be needed.  SPDR Gold ETF reduced its holdings at a high level.  Powell's remarks sent the three major U.S. stock indexes soaring, with the Dow and the Nasdaq Composite Index rising by more than 2.1% at their peak, and the S&P 500 climbing by over 1.7%. The U.S. dollar weakened against major currencies, and the spot gold price, after hitting a low of $3,321.5, rebounded sharply, approaching $3,379 before making a slight adjustment. In the early Asian session today, the gold price retreated to around $3,360. Despite the sharp rise in gold prices last Friday, SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased from 965.36 tons on August 16 to 956.77 tons from Wednesday to Friday, indicating that investors are still inclined to sell at higher prices. As for changes in open interest in gold futures, the long positions held by large funds in December gold futures decreased from 159,934 contracts on July 21 to 137,385 contracts on August 18, while the short positions held by retail investors decreased from 230,975 contracts to 209,960 contracts during the same period.  $3,350 is the first pullback support.  With expectations that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates in September, gold prices should perform relatively strongly. However, as there are still over three weeks until the September interest rate meeting, gold prices are expected to adjust first and consolidate at lower levels before climbing. In the short term, gold prices are likely to fluctuate above $3320. The first support level for a pullback today is $3350, and further adjustments are expected to hold above $3343. As gold prices are currently within a large narrowing triangle on the daily chart and last Friday saw a bullish engulfing candle with the high point very close to the downtrend line, even if today's prices break above last Friday's high and the downtrend line, it is highly likely to be a false breakout. At that time, the probability of a pullback is extremely high. For the time being, it is judged that the probability of a breakout today is not high, and gold prices are likely to adjust slowly downward.  The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.  MTF Special Analyst Zheng Guangfu

2025-08-25

"Gold Price Awaits Powell's Speech for a Breakthrough" 22/8/2025 10:16 Completed  Yesterday, the gold price plunged sharply to a low of $3,325 during the European midday session, but then rebounded continuously to a high of $3,348. The reason for this might be related to remarks made by Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov. Lavrov stated that Russia supports the security guarantee concept for Ukraine proposed at the 2022 Istanbul talks and said that Russia has always been ready for candid dialogue on Ukraine's security guarantee issue. He also pointed out that Putin has repeatedly expressed his readiness to meet with Zelensky. However, he emphasized that Russia will not accept foreign troops stationed in Ukraine.  US August PMI beats expectations  On the other hand, the latest preliminary S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for the US jumped sharply from 49.8 in July to 53.3, the highest since May 2022, and was better than the market expectation of further contraction. The Services PMI, however, edged down slightly from 55.7 to 55.4, remaining in expansion territory. These data deprived gold of an excuse to break through upward. However, gold remained in a narrow range around $3,340 in the New York afternoon session yesterday, and most of the hourly bars closed below $3,340. It seems that gold is waiting for Powell's speech tonight to make a breakthrough.  The gold price is likely to fluctuate between $3,330 and $3,345.  This morning, the gold price remained below $3,340, showing a slightly weak performance. From the hourly chart, the gold price is at the end of a narrowing triangle, with a breakout imminent. Currently, it is closer to the ascending trend line of the triangle. If it breaks down, the measured decline target is approximately $3,308. Conversely, if it breaks up the descending trend line, the upward target is $3,368. From the daily chart, the gold price is still fluctuating within the range of Wednesday's trading. Even if it drops to $3,308, it is only slightly lower than Wednesday's low by $3.6. On the contrary, if it breaks up, it will be nearly $17 higher than Wednesday's high. Therefore, an upward breakout of the gold price is more significant. For the time being, it is judged that the gold price is likely to fluctuate between $3,330 and $3,345 for most of the day, and it is unlikely to have a major breakthrough before Powell's speech.  The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.  MTF Special Analyst Zheng Guangfu

2025-08-25

"Gold Price Awaits Powell's Speech for a Breakthrough" 22/8/2025 10:16 Completed  Yesterday, the gold price plunged sharply to a low of $3,325 during the European midday session, but then rebounded continuously to a high of $3,348. The reason for this might be related to remarks made by Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov. Lavrov stated that Russia supports the security guarantee concept for Ukraine proposed at the 2022 Istanbul talks and said that Russia has always been ready for candid dialogue on Ukraine's security guarantee issue. He also pointed out that Putin has repeatedly expressed his readiness to meet with Zelensky. However, he emphasized that Russia will not accept foreign troops stationed in Ukraine.  US August PMI beats expectations  On the other hand, the latest preliminary S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for the US jumped sharply from 49.8 in July to 53.3, the highest since May 2022, and was better than the market expectation of further contraction. The Services PMI, however, edged down slightly from 55.7 to 55.4, remaining in expansion territory. These data deprived gold of an excuse to break through upward. However, gold remained in a narrow range around $3,340 in the New York afternoon session yesterday, and most of the hourly bars closed below $3,340. It seems that gold is waiting for Powell's speech tonight to make a breakthrough.  The gold price is likely to fluctuate between $3,330 and $3,345.  This morning, the gold price remained below $3,340, showing a slightly weak performance. From the hourly chart, the gold price is at the end of a narrowing triangle, with a breakout imminent. Currently, it is closer to the ascending trend line of the triangle. If it breaks down, the measured decline target is approximately $3,308. Conversely, if it breaks up the descending trend line, the upward target is $3,368. From the daily chart, the gold price is still fluctuating within the range of Wednesday's trading. Even if it drops to $3,308, it is only slightly lower than Wednesday's low by $3.6. On the contrary, if it breaks up, it will be nearly $17 higher than Wednesday's high. Therefore, an upward breakout of the gold price is more significant. For the time being, it is judged that the gold price is likely to fluctuate between $3,330 and $3,345 for most of the day, and it is unlikely to have a major breakthrough before Powell's speech.  The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.  MTF Special Analyst Zheng Guangfu

2025-08-25

"Gold Price Awaits Powell's Speech for a Breakthrough" 22/8/2025 10:16 Completed  Yesterday, the gold price plunged sharply to a low of $3,325 during the European midday session, but then rebounded continuously to a high of $3,348. The reason for this might be related to remarks made by Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov. Lavrov stated that Russia supports the security guarantee concept for Ukraine proposed at the 2022 Istanbul talks and said that Russia has always been ready for candid dialogue on Ukraine's security guarantee issue. He also pointed out that Putin has repeatedly expressed his readiness to meet with Zelensky. However, he emphasized that Russia will not accept foreign troops stationed in Ukraine.  US August PMI beats expectations  On the other hand, the latest preliminary S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for the US jumped sharply from 49.8 in July to 53.3, the highest since May 2022, and was better than the market expectation of further contraction. The Services PMI, however, edged down slightly from 55.7 to 55.4, remaining in expansion territory. These data deprived gold of an excuse to break through upward. However, gold remained in a narrow range around $3,340 in the New York afternoon session yesterday, and most of the hourly bars closed below $3,340. It seems that gold is waiting for Powell's speech tonight to make a breakthrough.  The gold price is likely to fluctuate between $3,330 and $3,345.  This morning, the gold price remained below $3,340, showing a slightly weak performance. From the hourly chart, the gold price is at the end of a narrowing triangle, with a breakout imminent. Currently, it is closer to the ascending trend line of the triangle. If it breaks down, the measured decline target is approximately $3,308. Conversely, if it breaks up the descending trend line, the upward target is $3,368. From the daily chart, the gold price is still fluctuating within the range of Wednesday's trading. Even if it drops to $3,308, it is only slightly lower than Wednesday's low by $3.6. On the contrary, if it breaks up, it will be nearly $17 higher than Wednesday's high. Therefore, an upward breakout of the gold price is more significant. For the time being, it is judged that the gold price is likely to fluctuate between $3,330 and $3,345 for most of the day, and it is unlikely to have a major breakthrough before Powell's speech.  The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.  MTF Special Analyst Zheng Guangfu

2025-08-22

"Gold Price Short-Term Tendency: Narrow Range Fluctuation" 21/8/2025 10:13 Completed  Gold prices continued to rebound after hitting a low of $3,311 in the early Asian session yesterday. From the hourly chart, it can be seen that the first target of $3,350 was reached in the early New York session, followed by a long negative candle. However, it climbed again and approached $3,352 in the early Asian session this morning before retreating. Currently, there is support at $3,340.  Although the minutes of the Federal Reserve's July interest rate meeting released yesterday showed that only two committee members suggested a 25 basis point rate cut at that meeting, the majority supported keeping the rate unchanged. The minutes indicated that Fed committee members were divided on when to confirm that the increase in import costs would not trigger broader and sustained price increases. Some members said that a large amount of information would be available in the coming months, but some believed that it was not appropriate to adjust the monetary policy stance until the impact of tariffs on inflation was fully clear. Although some members were concerned that the job market might deteriorate, the majority believed that the rise in the inflation rate was the greater risk of the two.  The US July interest rate meeting is delayed.  However, as the July employment report was released after that meeting, the July interest rate meeting is somewhat out of step with the current situation. Moreover, the number of new non-farm jobs in July dropped sharply, and the number of new jobs in May and June was significantly revised down. The July CPI also did not reflect the significant increase in inflation due to tariffs, or it can be regarded as the transmission speed of tariffs to consumer prices being slower than expected, which helps ease market concerns about a new round of inflation driven by rising import costs. Recently, a few committee members have expressed support for Waller and Bowman's stance on interest rate cuts, suggesting that they may support a rate cut at the September meeting.  The gold price is expected to fluctuate between 3,330 and 3,350.  The annual global central bank symposium will be held from today until Saturday. Fed Chair Powell will speak on Friday. It is believed that he is well aware that the market is waiting for his views on the recent employment and inflation data, especially whether he is open to a rate cut in September. Gold prices pulled back to the $3,340 level this morning and found support. With the global central bank symposium approaching and the US set to release the August S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMI tonight, which is expected to slow down, if gold prices show strength, they are likely to fluctuate above $3,340 today, with a possibility of breaking above $3,350 again. If there are many short-term profit-taking orders, gold prices may fall back to the $3,335 level. Overall, it is expected that gold prices will fluctuate between $3,330 and $3,350 today.  The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.  MTF Special Analyst Zheng Guangfu

2025-08-22

"Gold Price Short-Term Tendency: Narrow Range Fluctuation" 21/8/2025 10:13 Completed  Gold prices continued to rebound after hitting a low of $3,311 in the early Asian session yesterday. From the hourly chart, it can be seen that the first target of $3,350 was reached in the early New York session, followed by a long negative candle. However, it climbed again and approached $3,352 in the early Asian session this morning before retreating. Currently, there is support at $3,340.  Although the minutes of the Federal Reserve's July interest rate meeting released yesterday showed that only two committee members suggested a 25 basis point rate cut at that meeting, the majority supported keeping the rate unchanged. The minutes indicated that Fed committee members were divided on when to confirm that the increase in import costs would not trigger broader and sustained price increases. Some members said that a large amount of information would be available in the coming months, but some believed that it was not appropriate to adjust the monetary policy stance until the impact of tariffs on inflation was fully clear. Although some members were concerned that the job market might deteriorate, the majority believed that the rise in the inflation rate was the greater risk of the two.  The US July interest rate meeting is delayed.  However, as the July employment report was released after that meeting, the July interest rate meeting is somewhat out of step with the current situation. Moreover, the number of new non-farm jobs in July dropped sharply, and the number of new jobs in May and June was significantly revised down. The July CPI also did not reflect the significant increase in inflation due to tariffs, or it can be regarded as the transmission speed of tariffs to consumer prices being slower than expected, which helps ease market concerns about a new round of inflation driven by rising import costs. Recently, a few committee members have expressed support for Waller and Bowman's stance on interest rate cuts, suggesting that they may support a rate cut at the September meeting.  The gold price is expected to fluctuate between 3,330 and 3,350.  The annual global central bank symposium will be held from today until Saturday. Fed Chair Powell will speak on Friday. It is believed that he is well aware that the market is waiting for his views on the recent employment and inflation data, especially whether he is open to a rate cut in September. Gold prices pulled back to the $3,340 level this morning and found support. With the global central bank symposium approaching and the US set to release the August S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMI tonight, which is expected to slow down, if gold prices show strength, they are likely to fluctuate above $3,340 today, with a possibility of breaking above $3,350 again. If there are many short-term profit-taking orders, gold prices may fall back to the $3,335 level. Overall, it is expected that gold prices will fluctuate between $3,330 and $3,350 today.  The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.  MTF Special Analyst Zheng Guangfu

2025-08-22

"Gold Price Short-Term Tendency: Narrow Range Fluctuation" 21/8/2025 10:13 Completed  Gold prices continued to rebound after hitting a low of $3,311 in the early Asian session yesterday. From the hourly chart, it can be seen that the first target of $3,350 was reached in the early New York session, followed by a long negative candle. However, it climbed again and approached $3,352 in the early Asian session this morning before retreating. Currently, there is support at $3,340.  Although the minutes of the Federal Reserve's July interest rate meeting released yesterday showed that only two committee members suggested a 25 basis point rate cut at that meeting, the majority supported keeping the rate unchanged. The minutes indicated that Fed committee members were divided on when to confirm that the increase in import costs would not trigger broader and sustained price increases. Some members said that a large amount of information would be available in the coming months, but some believed that it was not appropriate to adjust the monetary policy stance until the impact of tariffs on inflation was fully clear. Although some members were concerned that the job market might deteriorate, the majority believed that the rise in the inflation rate was the greater risk of the two.  The US July interest rate meeting is delayed.  However, as the July employment report was released after that meeting, the July interest rate meeting is somewhat out of step with the current situation. Moreover, the number of new non-farm jobs in July dropped sharply, and the number of new jobs in May and June was significantly revised down. The July CPI also did not reflect the significant increase in inflation due to tariffs, or it can be regarded as the transmission speed of tariffs to consumer prices being slower than expected, which helps ease market concerns about a new round of inflation driven by rising import costs. Recently, a few committee members have expressed support for Waller and Bowman's stance on interest rate cuts, suggesting that they may support a rate cut at the September meeting.  The gold price is expected to fluctuate between 3,330 and 3,350.  The annual global central bank symposium will be held from today until Saturday. Fed Chair Powell will speak on Friday. It is believed that he is well aware that the market is waiting for his views on the recent employment and inflation data, especially whether he is open to a rate cut in September. Gold prices pulled back to the $3,340 level this morning and found support. With the global central bank symposium approaching and the US set to release the August S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMI tonight, which is expected to slow down, if gold prices show strength, they are likely to fluctuate above $3,340 today, with a possibility of breaking above $3,350 again. If there are many short-term profit-taking orders, gold prices may fall back to the $3,335 level. Overall, it is expected that gold prices will fluctuate between $3,330 and $3,350 today.  The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.  MTF Special Analyst Zheng Guangfu

2025-08-21

Gold prices are expected to rebound strongly within the day. 20/8/2025 10:08 Finalized.  Gold prices closed with a bearish engulfing candle on two of the past four trading days. Such a strong reversal signal appearing twice in such a short period indicates that the short-term trend remains weak. Assuming that the current downtrend, which began on August 8th, has the same magnitude as the decline from July 23rd to 30th, gold prices are likely to fall to around $3,237.89 before a strong rebound. Of course, gold prices could continue to decline, with potential declines reaching 1.382, 1.5, and 1.618 times the Fibonacci extension, or even greater multiples. However, based on my experience, a decline of the same magnitude is sufficient to trigger a strong rebound. Therefore, I temporarily set $3,238 as the medium-term target for gold prices to fall to.  Powell May Be the Driving Force Behind the Gold Price Rebound  As for the short-term trend, from the hourly chart, it is clear that gold prices have formed a downward trend. However, investors should note that there is a possibility of a strong rebound in gold prices today. If one were to link it to event factors, it is likely to be the minutes of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting released tonight, which may reflect that many FOMC decision-makers support rate cuts or are open to rate cuts in September. This will make investors more optimistic that Powell will deliver dovish monetary policy remarks at the three-day Jackson Hole central bank symposium starting tomorrow.  $3,300 serves as a significant psychological support.  From the four-hour chart, gold prices have been continuously falling since reaching a high of $3,345 during the European midday session yesterday. Measured by the Fibonacci extension line from the movement since August 8th, the ultimate target for the decline is a 100% drop to around $3,238. However, $3,300 is also a significant psychological support level. After hitting a low of $3,311.62 in the Asian session this morning, gold prices have slightly stabilized. Investors should note that if gold prices close with a bullish candlestick pattern of a piercing line on the hourly chart, the low may have been formed. The first target for a rebound within the day would be $3,350. If Powell delivers dovish remarks as expected, gold prices are likely to gradually test higher levels over the next two trading days, with the next upward targets being $3,360 and $3,370.  The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.  MTF Special Analyst Zheng Guangfu

2025-08-21

Gold prices are expected to rebound strongly within the day. 20/8/2025 10:08 Finalized.  Gold prices closed with a bearish engulfing candle on two of the past four trading days. Such a strong reversal signal appearing twice in such a short period indicates that the short-term trend remains weak. Assuming that the current downtrend, which began on August 8th, has the same magnitude as the decline from July 23rd to 30th, gold prices are likely to fall to around $3,237.89 before a strong rebound. Of course, gold prices could continue to decline, with potential declines reaching 1.382, 1.5, and 1.618 times the Fibonacci extension, or even greater multiples. However, based on my experience, a decline of the same magnitude is sufficient to trigger a strong rebound. Therefore, I temporarily set $3,238 as the medium-term target for gold prices to fall to.  Powell May Be the Driving Force Behind the Gold Price Rebound  As for the short-term trend, from the hourly chart, it is clear that gold prices have formed a downward trend. However, investors should note that there is a possibility of a strong rebound in gold prices today. If one were to link it to event factors, it is likely to be the minutes of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting released tonight, which may reflect that many FOMC decision-makers support rate cuts or are open to rate cuts in September. This will make investors more optimistic that Powell will deliver dovish monetary policy remarks at the three-day Jackson Hole central bank symposium starting tomorrow.  $3,300 serves as a significant psychological support.  From the four-hour chart, gold prices have been continuously falling since reaching a high of $3,345 during the European midday session yesterday. Measured by the Fibonacci extension line from the movement since August 8th, the ultimate target for the decline is a 100% drop to around $3,238. However, $3,300 is also a significant psychological support level. After hitting a low of $3,311.62 in the Asian session this morning, gold prices have slightly stabilized. Investors should note that if gold prices close with a bullish candlestick pattern of a piercing line on the hourly chart, the low may have been formed. The first target for a rebound within the day would be $3,350. If Powell delivers dovish remarks as expected, gold prices are likely to gradually test higher levels over the next two trading days, with the next upward targets being $3,360 and $3,370.  The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.  MTF Special Analyst Zheng Guangfu

2025-08-21

Gold prices are expected to rebound strongly within the day. 20/8/2025 10:08 Finalized.  Gold prices closed with a bearish engulfing candle on two of the past four trading days. Such a strong reversal signal appearing twice in such a short period indicates that the short-term trend remains weak. Assuming that the current downtrend, which began on August 8th, has the same magnitude as the decline from July 23rd to 30th, gold prices are likely to fall to around $3,237.89 before a strong rebound. Of course, gold prices could continue to decline, with potential declines reaching 1.382, 1.5, and 1.618 times the Fibonacci extension, or even greater multiples. However, based on my experience, a decline of the same magnitude is sufficient to trigger a strong rebound. Therefore, I temporarily set $3,238 as the medium-term target for gold prices to fall to.  Powell May Be the Driving Force Behind the Gold Price Rebound  As for the short-term trend, from the hourly chart, it is clear that gold prices have formed a downward trend. However, investors should note that there is a possibility of a strong rebound in gold prices today. If one were to link it to event factors, it is likely to be the minutes of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting released tonight, which may reflect that many FOMC decision-makers support rate cuts or are open to rate cuts in September. This will make investors more optimistic that Powell will deliver dovish monetary policy remarks at the three-day Jackson Hole central bank symposium starting tomorrow.  $3,300 serves as a significant psychological support.  From the four-hour chart, gold prices have been continuously falling since reaching a high of $3,345 during the European midday session yesterday. Measured by the Fibonacci extension line from the movement since August 8th, the ultimate target for the decline is a 100% drop to around $3,238. However, $3,300 is also a significant psychological support level. After hitting a low of $3,311.62 in the Asian session this morning, gold prices have slightly stabilized. Investors should note that if gold prices close with a bullish candlestick pattern of a piercing line on the hourly chart, the low may have been formed. The first target for a rebound within the day would be $3,350. If Powell delivers dovish remarks as expected, gold prices are likely to gradually test higher levels over the next two trading days, with the next upward targets being $3,360 and $3,370.  The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.  MTF Special Analyst Zheng Guangfu

2025-08-20

"Gold Prices Consolidate in a Narrow Range, Awaiting a Breakout" 19/8/2025 10:06 Completed  Yesterday, the gold price's performance was a "reversal of the Eiffel Tower pattern", with its maximum rebound being just over 38.2% of the largest increase since August 8th. It rose to nearly $3,358.5 in the Tokyo midday session before sharply retreating. It then continued to decline, reaching a new intraday low of around $3,331 after the London close. As there were no significant economic data releases in the US yesterday, the gold price gave up all of Monday's gains after surging. This suggests that gold market investors may have begun to prepare for the release of the minutes of the July interest rate meeting by the Federal Reserve at 2:00 am on Wednesday and the three-day Jackson Hole central bank symposium starting on Thursday.  The market's interpretation of the weakening gold price is that Trump is preparing to hold talks with Zelensky, followed by the participation of EU leaders, and then arrange a meeting between the US, Russia, and Ukraine, which has slightly reduced the risk-averse sentiment. However, it is obvious that Putin and Zelensky each hold a tough stance. Zelensky has proposed to purchase $100 billion worth of weapons from the US to build a security guarantee, reflecting that Ukraine does not accept the so-called "land partition" proposal. The risk aversion triggered by the Russia-Ukraine conflict has not yet reached its final chapter!  At present, the gold price is closely responding to various developments. I believe that investors have shifted their focus to the central bank's annual meeting. As for the meetings arranged by Trump, unless the positions of Putin and Zelensky change, even if Trump boasts of his success, investors do not need to pay too much attention. However, if the gold price shows a strong reaction, risk management must be done well. In the short term, from the hourly chart, the gold price is consolidating in a narrow range and seeking a breakthrough. The previous TD line's measured decline target of $3,328 has been reached. The gold price showed a bullish candle with a higher high and lower low in the Asian session this morning. Measured by the current TD line, if it breaks down, the target is $3,292, and if it breaks up, it will aim for $3,352.  The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.  MTF Special Analyst Zheng Guangfu

2025-08-20

"Gold Prices Consolidate in a Narrow Range, Awaiting a Breakout" 19/8/2025 10:06 Completed  Yesterday, the gold price's performance was a "reversal of the Eiffel Tower pattern", with its maximum rebound being just over 38.2% of the largest increase since August 8th. It rose to nearly $3,358.5 in the Tokyo midday session before sharply retreating. It then continued to decline, reaching a new intraday low of around $3,331 after the London close. As there were no significant economic data releases in the US yesterday, the gold price gave up all of Monday's gains after surging. This suggests that gold market investors may have begun to prepare for the release of the minutes of the July interest rate meeting by the Federal Reserve at 2:00 am on Wednesday and the three-day Jackson Hole central bank symposium starting on Thursday.  The market's interpretation of the weakening gold price is that Trump is preparing to hold talks with Zelensky, followed by the participation of EU leaders, and then arrange a meeting between the US, Russia, and Ukraine, which has slightly reduced the risk-averse sentiment. However, it is obvious that Putin and Zelensky each hold a tough stance. Zelensky has proposed to purchase $100 billion worth of weapons from the US to build a security guarantee, reflecting that Ukraine does not accept the so-called "land partition" proposal. The risk aversion triggered by the Russia-Ukraine conflict has not yet reached its final chapter!  At present, the gold price is closely responding to various developments. I believe that investors have shifted their focus to the central bank's annual meeting. As for the meetings arranged by Trump, unless the positions of Putin and Zelensky change, even if Trump boasts of his success, investors do not need to pay too much attention. However, if the gold price shows a strong reaction, risk management must be done well. In the short term, from the hourly chart, the gold price is consolidating in a narrow range and seeking a breakthrough. The previous TD line's measured decline target of $3,328 has been reached. The gold price showed a bullish candle with a higher high and lower low in the Asian session this morning. Measured by the current TD line, if it breaks down, the target is $3,292, and if it breaks up, it will aim for $3,352.  The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.  MTF Special Analyst Zheng Guangfu

2025-08-20

"Gold Prices Consolidate in a Narrow Range, Awaiting a Breakout" 19/8/2025 10:06 Completed  Yesterday, the gold price's performance was a "reversal of the Eiffel Tower pattern", with its maximum rebound being just over 38.2% of the largest increase since August 8th. It rose to nearly $3,358.5 in the Tokyo midday session before sharply retreating. It then continued to decline, reaching a new intraday low of around $3,331 after the London close. As there were no significant economic data releases in the US yesterday, the gold price gave up all of Monday's gains after surging. This suggests that gold market investors may have begun to prepare for the release of the minutes of the July interest rate meeting by the Federal Reserve at 2:00 am on Wednesday and the three-day Jackson Hole central bank symposium starting on Thursday.  The market's interpretation of the weakening gold price is that Trump is preparing to hold talks with Zelensky, followed by the participation of EU leaders, and then arrange a meeting between the US, Russia, and Ukraine, which has slightly reduced the risk-averse sentiment. However, it is obvious that Putin and Zelensky each hold a tough stance. Zelensky has proposed to purchase $100 billion worth of weapons from the US to build a security guarantee, reflecting that Ukraine does not accept the so-called "land partition" proposal. The risk aversion triggered by the Russia-Ukraine conflict has not yet reached its final chapter!  At present, the gold price is closely responding to various developments. I believe that investors have shifted their focus to the central bank's annual meeting. As for the meetings arranged by Trump, unless the positions of Putin and Zelensky change, even if Trump boasts of his success, investors do not need to pay too much attention. However, if the gold price shows a strong reaction, risk management must be done well. In the short term, from the hourly chart, the gold price is consolidating in a narrow range and seeking a breakthrough. The previous TD line's measured decline target of $3,328 has been reached. The gold price showed a bullish candle with a higher high and lower low in the Asian session this morning. Measured by the current TD line, if it breaks down, the target is $3,292, and if it breaks up, it will aim for $3,352.  The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.  MTF Special Analyst Zheng Guangfu

2025-08-19

"Gold Price Short-Term Rebound Still Halted at 3400" 18/8/2025 10:01 Completed Last Friday, the spot gold price slightly declined and closed at the level of $3335. August gold futures rose by $0.80 to $3336 per ounce, but still fell by $103.1 for the entire week. Both spot and futures silver prices dropped. Spot silver narrowly held above $38 per ounce at the close, while August silver futures fell by $0.08 to $37.89 per ounce, down $0.52 for the week.  There is no hope for a short-term ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine.  Although Trump's invitation to Putin to meet in Alaska to discuss ending the Russia-Ukraine conflict was the market focus last weekend, it is believed that no one expected an immediate solution acceptable to all parties to be found. However, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has lasted for three years, and investors seeking to avoid risks have already taken action. According to people familiar with the negotiations, as an exchange for the Donbas region, Putin said he would freeze the front lines in southern regions such as Kherson and Zaporizhzhia and would not launch new attacks to seize more territory. In addition, the West must recognize Crimea as belonging to Russia. This is in conflict with Zelensky's refusal to give up territorial sovereignty.  Gold prices are expected to remain supported in the short term as a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict seems unlikely in the near future. This week's focus is likely to shift to the Jackson Hole symposium in Wyoming from Thursday to Saturday, where market participants hope to glean information on a potential rate cut in September from the speech of US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. After hitting a low of $3,323.6 in the Asian session this morning, spot gold has risen by more than $20. Even though a daily low has been formed, $3,375 is still expected to be a key resistance level in the short term. Moreover, on the daily chart, gold remains within a narrowing triangle and a broader sideways range.  Gold price at 3,327 is expected to be a strong support within the day.  Using the Fibonacci extension lines to measure the movement since July 30th, if gold prices rebound further intraday, the 38.2% increase level at $3,380.5 is seen as the first resistance, followed by the 50% increase level at $3,397. As gold prices fell sharply on August 11th, the high of that day at $3,405 is still a strong resistance and is difficult to break through for now. Gold prices are expected to fluctuate below $3,400 in the short term, with $3,327 serving as a strong intraday support.  The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.  MTF Special Analyst Zheng Guangfu

2025-08-19

"Gold Price Short-Term Rebound Still Halted at 3400" 18/8/2025 10:01 Completed Last Friday, the spot gold price slightly declined and closed at the level of $3335. August gold futures rose by $0.80 to $3336 per ounce, but still fell by $103.1 for the entire week. Both spot and futures silver prices dropped. Spot silver narrowly held above $38 per ounce at the close, while August silver futures fell by $0.08 to $37.89 per ounce, down $0.52 for the week.  There is no hope for a short-term ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine.  Although Trump's invitation to Putin to meet in Alaska to discuss ending the Russia-Ukraine conflict was the market focus last weekend, it is believed that no one expected an immediate solution acceptable to all parties to be found. However, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has lasted for three years, and investors seeking to avoid risks have already taken action. According to people familiar with the negotiations, as an exchange for the Donbas region, Putin said he would freeze the front lines in southern regions such as Kherson and Zaporizhzhia and would not launch new attacks to seize more territory. In addition, the West must recognize Crimea as belonging to Russia. This is in conflict with Zelensky's refusal to give up territorial sovereignty.  Gold prices are expected to remain supported in the short term as a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict seems unlikely in the near future. This week's focus is likely to shift to the Jackson Hole symposium in Wyoming from Thursday to Saturday, where market participants hope to glean information on a potential rate cut in September from the speech of US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. After hitting a low of $3,323.6 in the Asian session this morning, spot gold has risen by more than $20. Even though a daily low has been formed, $3,375 is still expected to be a key resistance level in the short term. Moreover, on the daily chart, gold remains within a narrowing triangle and a broader sideways range.  Gold price at 3,327 is expected to be a strong support within the day.  Using the Fibonacci extension lines to measure the movement since July 30th, if gold prices rebound further intraday, the 38.2% increase level at $3,380.5 is seen as the first resistance, followed by the 50% increase level at $3,397. As gold prices fell sharply on August 11th, the high of that day at $3,405 is still a strong resistance and is difficult to break through for now. Gold prices are expected to fluctuate below $3,400 in the short term, with $3,327 serving as a strong intraday support.  The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.  MTF Special Analyst Zheng Guangfu

2025-08-19

"Gold Price Short-Term Rebound Still Halted at 3400" 18/8/2025 10:01 Completed Last Friday, the spot gold price slightly declined and closed at the level of $3335. August gold futures rose by $0.80 to $3336 per ounce, but still fell by $103.1 for the entire week. Both spot and futures silver prices dropped. Spot silver narrowly held above $38 per ounce at the close, while August silver futures fell by $0.08 to $37.89 per ounce, down $0.52 for the week.  There is no hope for a short-term ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine.  Although Trump's invitation to Putin to meet in Alaska to discuss ending the Russia-Ukraine conflict was the market focus last weekend, it is believed that no one expected an immediate solution acceptable to all parties to be found. However, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has lasted for three years, and investors seeking to avoid risks have already taken action. According to people familiar with the negotiations, as an exchange for the Donbas region, Putin said he would freeze the front lines in southern regions such as Kherson and Zaporizhzhia and would not launch new attacks to seize more territory. In addition, the West must recognize Crimea as belonging to Russia. This is in conflict with Zelensky's refusal to give up territorial sovereignty.  Gold prices are expected to remain supported in the short term as a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict seems unlikely in the near future. This week's focus is likely to shift to the Jackson Hole symposium in Wyoming from Thursday to Saturday, where market participants hope to glean information on a potential rate cut in September from the speech of US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. After hitting a low of $3,323.6 in the Asian session this morning, spot gold has risen by more than $20. Even though a daily low has been formed, $3,375 is still expected to be a key resistance level in the short term. Moreover, on the daily chart, gold remains within a narrowing triangle and a broader sideways range.  Gold price at 3,327 is expected to be a strong support within the day.  Using the Fibonacci extension lines to measure the movement since July 30th, if gold prices rebound further intraday, the 38.2% increase level at $3,380.5 is seen as the first resistance, followed by the 50% increase level at $3,397. As gold prices fell sharply on August 11th, the high of that day at $3,405 is still a strong resistance and is difficult to break through for now. Gold prices are expected to fluctuate below $3,400 in the short term, with $3,327 serving as a strong intraday support.  The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.  MTF Special Analyst Zheng Guangfu

2025-08-18

"Gold Weakness Expected to Persist Through Next Week" 15/8/2025 9:53 Completed Yesterday, the US Department of Labor released the Producer Price Index (PPI) for July. Both the overall and core PPI rose by 3.3% and 3.7% year-on-year, significantly higher than the 2.4% and 2.6% increases in June. The monthly increase was 0.9% for both, compared to no change in June. The data dampened investors' expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, but interest rate futures indicate that the probability of a rate cut still exceeds 90%, suggesting that the chance of a rate cut in September remains high. San Francisco Fed President Daly stated that he opposes a 50 basis point rate cut in September, arguing that it would send an emergency signal and show a lack of confidence in the strength of the labor market. From another perspective, he has not changed his stance in support of a rate cut in September.  The chances of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September remain high.  Although PPI is regarded as a leading indicator of inflation, there are certain differences between PPI and CPI in terms of the categories of prices collected and the collection time. Therefore, it is not surprising to see a deviation between the two. Of course, it is normal for the market to have a strong reaction to effectively manage risks. As a result, US stocks fell, the US dollar exchange rate and US bond yields rose. However, as the market still expects a 90% probability of a rate cut in September, the data did not change the market's view on a rate cut in September.  The intraday decline target is $3,297.  Gold prices were under pressure. By the end of the New York midday session yesterday, the spot gold price had once dropped below $3,330, further confirming that $3,370 has become a short-term resistance level. Yesterday, the gold price again presented a piercing pattern on the daily chart, indicating that the top near $3,375 yesterday has become a new resistance level. If the closing price today is below $3,345, the gold price will show a bearish signal on the weekly chart, and in the worst case, the weakness will continue for most of next week. This morning, the gold price hit a low of $3,332 before rebounding and once again rose above $3,340. In the short term, using the Fibonacci extension line to measure the movement since August 8th, if it reaches 100%, the gold price will fall to $3,297, which is also today's downside target. A rebound within the day is expected to face significant resistance at $3,352.  The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.  MTF Special Analyst Zheng Guangfu