Gold market analysis

2026-09-01

"Gold Volatility Narrows, Awaiting Breakout" – Completed on 1/9/2026 at 10:20   Yesterday's gold price showed unusually calm movement. Spot gold initially surged to $4,464.07 during early Asian trading, then quickly reversed, dipping as low as $4,415.74 before beginning a rebound. However, the day’s high and low were effectively established within this two-and-a-half-hour window. Gold failed to break out of this less-than-$49 range during both European and New York sessions. Markets appear temporarily confident in the Federal Reserve’s resolve under Powell to combat inflation, yet this contrasts sharply with the weak labor market. Gold briefly tested below the 20-period SMA on the daily chart ($4,447), suggesting that traders are awaiting a clearer breakout signal. On the same timeframe, my personal preference—or perhaps habit—is not to chase sell opportunities when prices reach major moving averages, nor do I buy aggressively upon reaching them; instead, I wait for new breakout signals from the market before acting. Currently, gold is hovering near the 20-period SMA on the daily chart, so if you're considering selling, it would be wise to look for confirmation from other timeframes. For example, on the hourly chart, the downtrend appears more evident—though stop-loss levels should also be determined based on this shorter-term view. Looking at the hourly chart, the first noticeable pattern is a descending flag formation. The rebound from yesterday’s low reached only about 23.6% of Friday’s New York high-to-low decline, placing the current level around $4,460, indicating relatively weak momentum. Measured by a 1:1 Fibonacci extension, gold could potentially fall further to $4,227. If a true downward breakout occurs, which price levels might offer significant support before reaching $4,227? From a Gann Square perspective, $4,310 lies along the 225-degree angle, representing weak support (or weak resistance). $4,210 sits at the 180-degree angle, marking strong support (or strong resistance). The projected downside target of $4,227 is close to this strong support zone at $4,210, suggesting that a bounce may be imminent once gold approaches $4,227. Meanwhile, $4,316.59 corresponds to the 61.8% Fibonacci extension, while $4,344.26 marks the 50% extension level. Therefore, the area between $4,344 and $4,316 could represent the first key support zone. Should gold break above $4,460, resistance is expected at $4,510—the Gann 315-degree angle. The above analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

2026-08-31

"Gold Price Supported Strongly at $4,410" – Completed on 31/8/2026 at 9:31 At the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Symposium, Federal Reserve Chair Waller delivered a firm stance on inflation and monetary policy—exactly as I anticipated. He emphasized that bringing the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation rate back to 2% is an "unwavering hard target." He noted that the Fed has failed to meet this goal for several consecutive months, and current inflation data remains concerning. Regarding the possibility of further rate hikes, he stated clearly that inflation is fundamentally a result of monetary policy choices. If core inflation does not decline toward the target quickly and with a clear direction, the central bank will not rule out additional tightening, adding that there is still work to be done. On financial conditions, he argued that current monetary policy and the overall financial environment are not yet contractionary, nor have they significantly suppressed economic activity, leaving room for further tightening by the Fed. His remarks were interpreted by markets as a highly hawkish stance. Interest rate futures reflected a sharp rise in expectations for a 25-basis-point hike in September, jumping from under 40% a week earlier to 59.7%, with further expectations of another 25-basis-point increase in December. U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar index both surged. However, the U.S. Department of Labor will release the August non-farm payroll report this Friday, with forecasts pointing to job gains of just 58,000—still a relatively low figure. With midterm elections approaching and tensions between the U.S. and Iran temporarily easing, it is unlikely the Fed will choose to raise rates at this moment. The spot gold price opened lower in today's Asian session, falling to a low of $4,442.21 before gradually recovering. However, after rebounding to $4,466.89, it turned lower again. On the daily chart, gold has approached the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) at $4,430. I believe this level offers short-term support; even if broken, a reversal pattern within a single day is likely. Using Fibonacci retracement on the move since June 30, a 38.2% correction would bring the price to $4,409.85. Given that Gann’s square vertical angle at 270 degrees lies at $4,410, this level is expected to remain a key short-term support. Cyclical analysis also suggests that gold may have bottomed out today, making further buying at these lows riskier. Therefore, I expect gold to trade within a range of $4,410 to $4,510 today. The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

2026-08-28

Gold price expected to test 20-day moving average before rebounding   August 28, 2026, 11:14 AM   The U.S. July PCE data showed no signs of easing inflation, continuing to weigh on gold prices. Meanwhile, three Federal Reserve officials voiced hawkish stances. Kansas City Fed President Schmid indicated that current short-term interest rates may be at a relatively loose level; Cleveland Fed President Hammack stated that the present rate levels are insufficient to bring inflation down on their own and urged policymakers to act immediately; Boston Fed President Collins added that he would support a rate hike if there were no clear evidence of sustained inflation decline. Yesterday marked the opening of the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Symposium, where Federal Reserve Chair Waller will speak today. Markets expect him to maintain his typically cautious and reserved approach, with several institutions predicting he will not issue any clear signals regarding the future direction of interest rates. However, in my view, Waller is not avoiding communication with markets but rather reluctant to repeat unoriginal arguments. This year’s Jackson Hole theme is "Financial Innovation," focusing on its impact on payments and policy. Given this is a central bank symposium, the relevant "policy" naturally refers to monetary policy, while "payments" relate to money flows—factors influencing overall economic activity and price movements, thereby affecting inflation. Waller may use this opportunity to discuss how financial innovation impacts inflation and monetary policy, then explain these dynamics within the current economic context, subtly reflecting potential interest rate trends. The Fed's hawkish stance has become increasingly evident. The spot gold price peaked at $4,697.66 on Tuesday, approaching the 50% retracement level of the year's January high of $5,595.46 to the June-end low of $3,944.23, which stands at $4,769.84. On Wednesday, the market signaled another downturn, and the current rally has yet to close above $4,660. With $4,600 now breached, the next likely target is the daily chart’s 20-period SMA at $4,417. Only after testing this level could a recovery potentially resume. In the near term, $4,510 remains the immediate downside target, while resistance lies at $4,610. The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

2026-08-27

"Gold Needs to Fall to $4,510 for Support" – Completed on 27/8/2026 at 11:09 Yesterday's U.S. data showed that the core PCE inflation rate in July remained unchanged at an annual increase of 3.3%, marking the eighth consecutive month above 3%. The monthly rise also slightly expanded by 0.1 percentage point to 0.2%. Overall PCE inflation held steady at a year-on-year gain of 3.7%, the fifth consecutive month exceeding 3%. This figure appears clearly influenced by U.S. military actions against Iran, indicating no signs of cooling inflation. Interest rate futures suggest the market now expects a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Federal Reserve in December as the most likely outcome, with odds remaining around 45%. Meanwhile, the situation remains uncertain regarding how Powell will respond. Following the release of the data, gold prices plunged sharply, briefly falling below $4,600 before recovering. However, after reaching a high of $4,633.6, gold reversed again and closed the New York session near $4,583.28—close to yesterday’s first TD level target of $4,582. Nevertheless, this morning in Asian trading, gold opened higher and continued rising, reaching a temporary peak of $4,643.12. It remains clearly constrained by strong resistance at the Gann square angle level of $4,660. On the hourly chart, using TD analysis, if gold breaks below the TD ascending trendline at approximately $4,585, the next projected downside target would be around $4,462. Conversely, a breakout above the resistance line at about $4,246 could lead to a target of roughly $4,736. Technically, gold is currently positioned near the top of a balanced descending channel. Even if it manages to break upward, there is potential for a double-top formation with previous highs. Moreover, even if Powell does not deliver dovish remarks at the Jackson Hole central bank symposium (which is unlikely), gold lacks sufficient justification for a significant upward move. In the short term, gold is expected to remain capped by $4,660, with $4,510 still viewed as a key support level. The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

2026-08-26

"Gold Price Likely to Experience Repeated Short-Term Declines"   Completed on 26/8/2026 at 10:38   After reaching a high of $4,696.98 during early Asian trading yesterday, the spot gold price weakened and spent most of the European session consolidating around the hourly 50-period SMA (currently around $4,645). Following the opening of New York markets, it briefly plunged to $4,605.53 before recovering and gradually regaining ground. In today's early Asian session, it rose further to $4,673.83 but then declined again. On the hourly chart, gold may now be forming a descending wave pattern. Assuming that the fifth wave ended at yesterday’s high of $4,696.98, we are now likely in an abc corrective phase, with a breakdown below $4,450.82 being a key calculation point. From a technical perspective, a double-top formation is also possible, with $4,605.53 serving as the neckline. A break below this level would target approximately $4,514.08—a figure very close to the second-level TD line projection of about $4,513. Using the first-level TD count, the downside target would be around $4,582. Conversely, if gold breaks above the TD descending trendline, there is a high probability of a false breakout at this hour (10:00 AM), so any upward move should be measured based on the next hourly breakout. Under such a scenario, the upside target would be around $4,745. However, judging from short-term cyclical patterns, gold likely peaked yesterday, and prices are expected to decline repeatedly over the remainder of the week. The market’s reaction to tonight’s U.S. July PCE data will offer important clues, while the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Symposium opens on Thursday—making a further breakout higher uncertain. The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

2026-08-25

Gold Price Short-Term Target Down to $4,510 – August 25, 2026, 10:59 AM   Although spot gold prices surged as high as $4,680.94 yesterday, they ultimately closed at $4,635.58, failing to hold above the strong resistance level of $4,660—the Gann square angle. On the daily chart, measured by Fibonacci extensions across three timeframes, selling pressure is mounting significantly above the $4,600 level. Since April 17, the price has advanced nearly 78.6% (reaching $4,687.37); since March 2, it has also approached the 50% extension level ($4,681.74). Measured from the January 29 historical high of $5,595.46, the rally has surpassed the 38.2% extension but still has over $100 of room to reach the 50% level at $4,769.84. Yesterday, we noted that gold may have completed its fifth wave and is now poised to enter a corrective ABC pattern—adjusting against the move since August 14. According to Elliott Wave theory, once the price breaks below the fourth-wave low, a higher-degree third wave will follow. Currently, the fourth-wave low stands at $4,450.84; therefore, after testing this level, traders should consider re-establishing long positions rather than chasing further declines. This morning, gold has already broken below the hourly 20-period SMA at $4,653, with lows approaching the 50-period SMA at $4,615.60—the closest pullback to this moving average since the upward breakout on August 19. While bullish investors might consider entering longs at this point, both higher time-frame analysis, short-term cyclical patterns, and fundamental and news-driven factors strongly suggest a high probability of breaking below the 50-period SMA. A break below this level could trigger additional stop-loss sell orders, further pressuring prices downward. Conservatively, gold is expected to stabilize only around $4,510. Therefore, it is advisable to establish short positions between the hourly 20- and 50-period SMAs, with partial profit targets set at $4,510 and $4,450. The above information is for reference purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

2026-08-24

"Gold Price Correction Wave May Test 4,450 USD" – Completed on August 24, 2026, 11:11 AM The impact of the U.S. Treasury's announcement to increase the purchase of long-term government bonds continues to unfold, pushing gold prices higher. As expected, gold rose to $4,600 last Friday and has shown no signs of slowing down. After closing in London at $4,632.24, spot gold continued to climb following a brief dip to $4,595.95 during early Asian trading today, before reaching a fresh recent high of $4,656.44. In the short term, selling pressure on gold is likely to gradually intensify. Technically, the first key resistance level lies at $4,660, aligned with the Gann square angle; beyond that, the Fibonacci 100% extension target from March 23 stands at $4,735.06. On the data front, this Tuesday will bring the latest ADP employment change figures, while Wednesday’s release of July PCE inflation data is expected to draw extra market attention. Current forecasts anticipate year-on-year growth remaining steady at 3.3%. Additionally, the preliminary Q2 GDP reading will be released on the same day, along with a host of other economic data. At this sensitive moment, any single figure could easily become a catalyst for market speculation. The most anticipated event remains the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Symposium from August 27 to 29. Since new Federal Reserve Chair Waller has broken with past Fed chairmen by refraining from commenting on U.S. economic outlooks after policy meetings and omitting forward guidance in post-meeting statements, and given that U.S. inflation remained above 3% between March and July, market concerns over persistent inflation have led to a weaker dollar and rising bond yields. However, it is certain that Waller will signal a firm commitment to curbing inflation and bringing it back to 2% at the symposium. Judging by his words and actions, I expect him to hint at a possible rate hike in September—only then can long-term interest rates potentially ease after their recent surge. Therefore, from a timing perspective, the current upward momentum in gold is unlikely to extend into next week. First, the two major technical resistances mentioned above pose challenges. Second, analyzing the price action since August 14, the third wave of the rally has already exceeded 2.618 times the length of the first wave, possibly even completing a five-wave structure and entering an ABC corrective phase. Conservatively speaking, gold may retreat to $4,494.13, with further declines potentially breaching $4,450. Nevertheless, support is expected to hold above $4,410, allowing for consolidation before resuming an upward trend. The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

2026-08-21

Gold price could test $4,600 intraday   August 21, 2026, 10:36 AM   Stimulated by the U.S. Treasury's announcement to increase the purchase of long-term government bonds, the dollar weakened broadly, pushing gold prices higher. Yesterday, spot gold hit a high of $4,540.73 ahead of London's close, then consolidated at elevated levels. In early Asian trading today, it advanced further to $4,543.56 before facing selling pressure, potentially forming a double top on the hourly chart. On the other hand, if the weak resistance at the Gann 315-degree angle level of $4,510 is confirmed broken, the next target for gold would be the horizontal angle level at $4,610—a strong resistance zone—where a deeper pullback is expected. The price range is likely to shift upward to between $4,410 and $4,610. On the hourly chart, gold rebounded sharply after testing support around the previous consolidation peak at approximately $4,450 yesterday, suggesting this level as a robust short-term support. Meanwhile, $4,510 is expected to be the first key support during today’s intraday correction. From the daily chart perspective, measuring the move since March 23 using Fibonacci extensions, the 100% extension suggests gold could rise to $4,735.06, indicating a potential breakout above the strong resistance at $4,660. However, even after surpassing $4,660, stronger resistance is anticipated. Currently, gold is hovering near the 61.8% retracement level from June 30 ($4,528.53), which represents the final defense line for bears. A break below this level is expected to trigger a rapid rally, with gold possibly challenging $4,600 intraday. The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

2026-08-20

"Gold Price at $4,510 Likely to Act as Intraday Resistance" – Completed on 8/20/2026 at 10:52 Yesterday, gold prices surged sharply, with spot gold reaching a high of $4,524.32. This morning, after opening in Asia, the price hit a peak of $4,527.67 within the first five minutes but then declined steadily, falling as low as $4,484.67 before rebounding. However, it failed to regain the $4,500 level. Yesterday’s daily range exceeded $200—the second time since August 5—and formed a bullish candlestick pattern similar to that seen on August 5. Could this signal a repeat of the subsequent trend—further gains followed by consolidation at higher levels? The sharp rise in gold was primarily driven by the U.S. Treasury's announcement that it would increase its bond buyback program for 10- to 30-year maturities from the current $2 billion to a minimum of $4 billion, aimed at supporting market liquidity and easing pressure caused by rising bond yields. The Treasury’s move effectively increases the supply of dollars while reducing the supply of U.S. Treasuries, thereby putting downward pressure on both the dollar and bond yields. Indeed, net inflows into U.S. equities have surged dramatically this year—from $92 billion in January to between $535 billion and $594 billion in July—significantly tightening dollar liquidity. As a result, gold prices were naturally stimulated to climb rapidly. On the daily chart, yesterday’s rally brought gold close to the 61.8% retracement level of the largest decline since April 17, at $4,528.53. Additionally, the $4,510 level lies along Gann’s square at the 315-degree angle, marking a weak resistance (or support) zone, increasing the likelihood of short-term consolidation. For now, the initial correction target is around $4,450, with $4,410 shifting from strong resistance to strong support, and $4,300 forming the next stronger support level. Following a significant advance, gold typically experiences a meaningful pullback, and today’s rebound is expected to be capped by the $4,510 level. The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

2026-08-19

Gold Price May Bottom Out and Rebound This Friday   August 19, 2026, 10:48 AM   The gold price continues to adjust. Yesterday's volatility exceeded $103, yet it still closed down by over $83, marking the second time since August 13 that a "head-and-shoulders" pattern has formed on the daily chart—indicating strong selling pressure remains. On the daily chart, the 20-period SMA (4219) has further diverged upward from the 50-period SMA (4155), suggesting that the support level for any pullback is steadily rising. Based on gains since June 30, gold may stabilize at either the 38.2% retracement level (4256.62) or at the Gann Square 180-degree angle of $4,210 before launching a new upward wave. In the short term, after touching a low of $4,324.3 in this morning’s Asian session, gold formed a bullish engulfing candlestick on the hourly chart, indicating some support around the Gann Square 225-degree angle at $4,310. Currently, prices have rebounded to near $4,360—the midpoint between the weak support at $4,310 and the strong resistance at $4,410. Whether gold can climb further depends on whether it breaks above the hourly 20-SMA at $4,368. Even then, a close above yesterday’s high of $4,436.39 would be required to signal a reversal of the downtrend. On the hourly chart, gold remains range-bound with slightly narrowing volatility. The sharp rebound this morning from $4,324.3 was technically driven by the 9-RSI dropping as low as 12, signaling extreme oversold conditions; currently, the 9-RSI has risen to 47. Judging by short-term cyclical patterns, gold is likely to continue fluctuating downward before bottoming out this Friday, followed by a strong recovery. If the lows reach the daily 20-SMA or $4,210 at that point, the likelihood of an upward rally increases significantly. The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

2026-08-18

"Gold Price Retracement: Still Primarily Buy on Dips" – Completed on 18/8/2026 at 11:03 In the blink of an eye, the 60-day temporary ceasefire and negotiation deadline between the U.S. and Iran expired yesterday. Not only has no nuclear deal been reached, but passage through the Strait of Hormuz remains partially restricted. U.S. President Trump is expected to abandon further negotiations with Iran, and foreign media report that the U.S. will reimpose oil sanctions and maritime blockades against Iran. Last week, U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen stated that unprecedented financial sanctions against Iran are imminent. Yesterday, Brent crude futures rose back above $90 per barrel, while New York's front-month crude held steady around $84. Spot gold prices fluctuated upward yesterday, reaching a high of $4,436.15 in early Asian trading this morning before retreating. On the hourly chart, a strong bearish "head-and-shoulders" reversal pattern emerged. Although gold did not follow the balanced downward channel as previously indicated, it now appears more likely to have formed a double-top pattern on the hourly chart—suggesting a short-term trend toward continued correction. The neckline is seen at $4,311.22, with a simple measured target for the decline at $4,186.29. From a Gann square perspective, if gold confirms a break below $4,410 (a vertical angle at 270 degrees), it could test the double-top measured target of $4,186.29, meaning the 180-degree angle level at $4,210 would come under pressure. Even if we interpret the current movement as sideways rather than a double top on the hourly chart, a breakout above $4,449.71 would be required to break the stalemate. However, the daily chart outlook is less pessimistic. Recent price declines merely reflect a pullback after reaching the 50% retracement level from the largest drop since April 17, initiating a corrective wave. Moreover, gold has significantly pulled away from both the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, creating ample room for a pullback. Therefore, investors may consider establishing long positions during this short-term correction. Taking June 30’s low as the start of the recent rally, potential entry points could include the 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels at $4,256.62, $4,196.97, and $4,137.32 respectively. In summary, until gold clearly breaks below the 50-day SMA on the daily chart, waiting for lower levels to buy remains the primary strategy. The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

2026-08-17

Gold Price Poised for a New Uptrend   Completed on 17/8/2026 at 11:00   U.S. retail sales unexpectedly declined in July, falling by 0.6% month-on-month—below the expected gain of 0.1% and June’s 0.2% increase—and marking the first drop since October 2025. Core retail sales also fell by 0.3% month-on-month, underperforming both the forecasted 0.2% rise and June’s 0.2% decline. Year-on-year growth slowed from 6.75% to 5.01%. The main driver behind the July decline was a 2.2% monthly drop in non-store sales, likely reflecting Amazon's shift of its member-exclusive discount day from July to June. Therefore, the unexpected fall in U.S. retail sales does not necessarily indicate a weakening market. Speculators seized the opportunity, capitalizing on expectations of lower interest rates. Gold prices surged immediately after the retail data release, climbing to $4,386.91, then retraced to a low of $4,370.09 within the following half-hour before recovering sharply to reach a high of $4,396.88. Subsequently, prices pulled back again. At London’s close, gold peaked at $4,396.67 before forming a double top on the five-minute chart and declining. This morning, spot gold briefly hit $4,416.49 but later retreated below $4,400, indicating that the 50% retracement level of the largest decline since April 17—$4,416.97—remains a key resistance. However, on the hourly chart, gold broke above the 50-period SMA (currently around $4,371.6) early Friday in New York trading and has clearly held above this line since. This morning, after briefly testing the 50SMA, it closed with a strong bullish candlestick, surpassing last Friday’s high. Meanwhile, the 20SMA is now beginning to cross above the 50SMA, suggesting that after consolidation, gold may retest the $4,416 resistance level today. Notably, if gold holds firmly above the Gann 270-degree vertical angle at $4,410, it would signal readiness for a new upward move, targeting $4,510 and $4,660. Thus, the 50SMA on the hourly chart and today’s bullish candle’s low at $4,368.32 should be viewed as critical support levels, implying a strong rebound if prices fall to those levels. From a more conservative perspective, gold could potentially form a balanced descending channel on the hourly chart. If so, the key support would be the Fibonacci 100% extension target from August 13 at $4,278. However, any short position would require confirmation that gold closes significantly below $4,368.32 on the hourly chart without generating strong reversal signals such as a double K-line pattern. The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

2026-08-14

"Gold Price in Technical Correction" – Completed on 14/8/2026 at 11:26 The U.S. July PPI rose 4.7% year-on-year, below the expected 4.9% and June's 5.5%. Core PPI increased 4.2% annually, matching expectations but still lower than June’s 4.7%. The data indicates that inflationary pressures driven by soaring oil prices are easing. Markets no longer expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this year, yet gold prices fell instead of rising. One possible reason is profit-taking by investors; another is that although the annual PPI growth has moderated, it remains elevated—likely prompting the Fed to maintain current interest rates rather than cut them. Cleveland Fed President Harker reiterated the need for immediate rate hikes to bring inflation back to the 2% target. Richmond Fed President Barkin stated it was unclear whether further tightening would be needed to meet inflation goals. Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee expects inflation caused by tariffs and oil prices to be temporary, with a gradual return to stability. However, during the July monetary policy meeting, three members—including Harker—supported a rate hike, highlighting internal divisions within the Fed. Given the current Middle East tensions, slow inflation decline, and weakening labor market, it is likely that interest rates will remain unchanged in September. Although gold prices continue to fall, the decline appears to be a technical correction, as prices have retraced about 50% from their peak drop since April 17. On the daily chart, gold broke above the 50SMA (currently around 4146) on August 5, crossing the 20SMA (currently around 4172). After reaching a high of $4,450.23 yesterday, gold closed in a bearish engulfing pattern, indicating ongoing short-term selling pressure. A rebound may not occur until early next week. The 20SMA and 50SMA are seen as strong medium-term supports. For most of the day, prices are likely to remain constrained by the hourly 20SMA (currently around 4361), continuing to trend downward along this line. Additionally, tonight’s release of U.S. July retail sales data should be closely watched—if retail activity remains robust, renewed concerns over rate hikes could trigger a sharp drop in gold prices! The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

2026-08-13

"Gold Price Awaits Breakout with Cautious Optimism" – Completed on 13/8/2026 at 11:06 Yesterday, the U.S. Department of Labor released July CPI data, showing an annual increase of 3.4%, down from June's 3.5%. The core CPI also slowed slightly to 2.5% year-on-year from 2.6%. However, these figures are insufficient to ease the Federal Reserve’s vigilance on inflation or prompt any rate cuts. Yet gold prices surged sharply. I find it highly勉强 to explain this move solely by CPI data; instead, oil-related developments appear to be the primary driver behind gold’s rapid rise. Yesterday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that crude oil inventories increased by 17.423 million barrels in the week ending August 7, reaching 424.4 million barrels—the highest level since 2023. Additionally, EIA’s monthly report released on the same day projected that natural gas production—accounting for 40% of the U.S.’s primary electricity generation—will hit a new record this year. Production in the first half of 2026 was already up 4% compared to the same period last year. The United States has been the world’s largest natural gas producer from 2009 through 2024. Based on this, investors likely believe that U.S. inflation will decline as a result, reducing the risk of sustained upward pressure and thereby lowering the likelihood of further Fed rate hikes. For gold, spot prices have clearly stabilized above $4,000. However, they remain near the 50% retracement level of the largest drop since April 17, meaning technical correction risks remain high. That said, if even such inflation data fails to push gold lower, investors should watch closely: once gold firmly reclaims above $4,410, there is a strong chance it could test the Gann 180-degree angle at $4,210, potentially triggering a larger corrective wave. On the other hand, the hourly chart of spot gold suggests significant downside potential. If prices close below the 50SMA ($4,398), they may test $4,285 or even $4,234—or possibly $4,183—before regaining momentum. Meanwhile, on the daily chart, the 20SMA ($4,159.7) has already crossed above the 50SMA ($4,147.2), so around $4,163 can be considered a key medium-term support level. The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

2026-08-12

"Gold Price Likely to Remain Range-Bound in the Short Term"   Completed on 12/8/2026 at 11:54   Yesterday, gold prices surged early in Asian trading to a high of $4,435.33 before retracing sharply and fluctuating significantly. The price action formed a narrowing triangle pattern, with the day's low hitting $4,356.87 during the initial phase of European trading, while the rebound peak reached $4,404.43 shortly after New York opened. However, today in early Asian trading, gold regained momentum, breaking above yesterday’s New York rebound high to reach $4,415.71. The earlier forecast for gold movement was fairly accurate. Although prices broke through the $4,410 level—the Gann 270-degree vertical angle—and the 50% retracement level of the recent mid-term downtrend at $4,416.97, they did not advance far beyond. The lows remained only about $6 below yesterday’s indicated support level of $4,362.12. On the 5-minute chart, gold briefly dipped to $4,360.42 this morning before recovering. It has since pulled back from $4,415.71 and is currently testing the 20SMA (currently around $4,405), likely to next test the 50SMA (around $4,391). Moreover, since yesterday’s European session, gold has generally moved within a balanced ascending channel, ranging between approximately $4,360 and $4,410. Tonight, the U.S. Department of Labor will release July CPI data, expected to show an annual increase of 3.4%. As long as inflation does not drop significantly toward 3%, $4,410 will remain the key resistance level. I anticipate that if gold remains strong, it will continue to trade above $4,360, with the $4,410–$4,460 zone acting as resistance, while the $4,360–$4,310 range will serve as support. Gold is expected to continue moving within this short-term range-bound pattern. The release of tonight’s July CPI data increases the likelihood of further pullbacks! The above information is for reference purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

2026-08-11

"High Chance of Gold Reaching a Peak Today" – Completed on 11/8/2026 at 11:12 The weakening U.S. labor market has provided investors with a reason to sell the dollar. On August 5, following weaker-than-expected July ADP private employment data, gold prices broke above the daily chart's 50-period SMA (currently around 4,150), gaining momentum. This morning during early Asian trading, gold surged as high as $4,435.33—breaching both the Gann square’s 270-degree vertical angle at $4,410 and the 50% retracement level of the largest drop since April 17 at $4,416.97. However, it subsequently pulled back repeatedly and remains temporarily above $4,410. Nevertheless, attention should be paid to tonight’s release of the U.S. July CPI data. Market expectations are for the year-on-year increase to decline from 3.5% to 3.4%. Even so, inflation would still remain above the 3% threshold, leaving little justification for rate cuts. Moreover, the Federal Reserve does not base its monetary policy solely on one month’s employment data. Additionally, tensions between the U.S. and Iran could worsen again, as both sides demand compensation for losses and casualties caused by military actions. This has pushed New York crude oil prices back above $80. If the Strait of Hormuz continues to face prolonged disruptions in shipping capacity, oil prices could rise further, which would likely push gold prices lower. Looking at the 5-minute chart, gold is currently testing the 50SMA (currently around $4,411) for the second time this morning in Asian markets. A confirmed close below this line would likely trigger a rapid decline. If the correction reaches 61.8% of yesterday’s overnight rally in New York, gold could fall to $4,362.12—roughly within the range between the strong resistance at $4,410 and weak support at $4,310. Judging by short-term cyclical patterns, gold appears to have peaked today, and is expected to trend downward over the remainder of the week. Even if it holds steady above $4,410 in the near term, a challenge toward $4,460 remains possible only if U.S. inflation drops sharply below 3%. Otherwise, the likelihood of reaching the 61.8% retracement level of the largest drop since April 17—$4,528.53—is slim. The above information is for reference purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

2026-08-10

"50-Day Moving Average of Gold Price Provides Strong Medium-Term Support"   Completed on October 8, 2026, at 11:10 AM Last Friday's U.S. July employment data came as a disappointment. Nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000, sharply diverging from the market's expectation of an increase of 88,000. This marked the second consecutive month of job losses this year, following a downward revision in June’s job gains—from 57,000 to just 20,000. Additionally, private-sector job growth added only 30,000 positions, well below the expected 78,000. As a result, the overall decline in employment was driven by government sector cuts of 53,000 jobs—the fourth consecutive month of reductions in public-sector employment. Although the unemployment rate dropped by 0.1 percentage point to 4.1%, the unexpected decline in nonfarm payrolls left markets deeply disappointed. The drop in jobs was unforeseen and thus not previously priced in, triggering significant volatility across financial assets. Investors who had been bullish on the dollar naturally cut their positions to manage risk, while traders who had held back before the release seized the opportunity to sell aggressively. Consequently, the U.S. dollar plummeted, gold prices surged, and U.S. equities rallied sharply. However, based on personal experience, the short-term market impact of U.S. employment data—whether strong or weak—is typically absorbed within half an hour. Indeed, after the spot gold price jumped from $4,309 to $4,371.89, it began to retreat, reaching its intraday high just 15 minutes after the data release, followed by a gradual pullback. In New York afternoon trading, prices traded sideways above $4,327. The dollar did not collapse significantly, which I believe is due to two main factors: first, the nonfarm payroll change exceeded expectations by over 100,000, possibly influenced by special circumstances; second, although government jobs declined, private-sector employment still increased. Moreover, markets will now closely watch the Federal Reserve’s stance—whether it shifts focus from inflation to the labor market, or continues prioritizing inflation control. From a technical perspective, examining the daily chart, last Friday’s sharp rise in gold reversed more than 38.2% of the decline since April 17, bringing prices closer to the 50% retracement level at $4,416.97, which acts as a major resistance zone. From Gann Square analysis, $4,410 lies at the 270-degree vertical angle, making it highly likely that gold will face strong resistance between $4,410 and $4,416, potentially triggering another substantial pullback. Nevertheless, gold has clearly broken above the 50-day SMA (at $4,150), indicating a clear medium-term upward trend. This moving average will now serve as a robust support level during any short-term correction. Therefore, traders should consider selling gold around $4,410–$4,416, while buying near the 50-day SMA. More advanced traders may engage in high-selling and low-buying strategies between these levels, but overall, a strategy of buying on dips remains advisable. The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

2026-08-07

Non-Farm Data May Further Boost Gold Prices   July 8, 2026, 10:38 AM   Gold has clearly broken above the 50-day SMA on the daily chart (currently around $4,151), signaling a mid-term upward trend. The next potential targets are $4,417 and $4,528, while the 50-day SMA may act as a key support level during short-term corrections. In the near term, after a sharp rise, gold experienced a pullback—yesterday, spot gold dipped to $4,223.46 in mid-New York trading, down more than $80 from its earlier high.  On the hourly chart, gold prices broke below the 20-period SMA (currently around 4254) near yesterday's New York midday session, then traded in a narrow range. This morning, during early Asian trading, prices rebounded to $4253.35 and moved above the 20-period SMA. Although gold has been declining from yesterday's high, forming a short-term bearish pattern, examining the trend since August 3 reveals an ascending flag formation. Notably, the cumulative decline from the peak is just slightly more than 23.6% of the prior upward move, falling short even of the 38.2% level. Therefore, this correction is likely only a short-term adjustment rather than a significant weakening trend.  Tonight, the U.S. Department of Labor will release the July non-farm payroll report, with expectations of 88,000 new jobs, an unemployment rate steady at 4.2%, and average hourly earnings rising by 0.3% month-on-month. Only a significant increase in employment—such as 150,000 or more—combined with a further decline in the unemployment rate, could reignite market expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes and put downward pressure on gold prices. Conversely, if job growth remains below 100,000, the unemployment rate stays unchanged or even rises, and interest rates are expected to remain stable or gradually trend lower, gold is likely to strengthen steadily. Under such conditions, gold could rise toward $4,365 and $4,400, with a potential pullback expected if it reaches $4,508.  The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

2026-08-06

"Gold Prices Surge Sharply—Beware of Correction" 6/8/2026 10:44 Completed   After months of turmoil, the market has chosen to accept the easing of tensions between the U.S. and Iran—or perhaps Trump's desire to avoid letting Middle Eastern geopolitical developments affect the midterm elections—leading him to halt further military action against Iran. Moreover, there remains strong domestic opposition in the U.S. to military strikes on Iran. With less than three months remaining before the midterms, it is believed that the U.S. will temporarily accept Iran and Oman each controlling the northern and southern passages of the Strait of Hormuz, aiming to prevent escalating U.S.-Iran tensions from dragging down Republican prospects in the midterm elections. Trump has consistently opposed imposing fees on vessels using the Strait of Hormuz, so whether the situation truly stabilizes will ultimately depend on the outcome of the U.S. midterm elections.  If Republicans retain control of both the Senate and House after the midterm elections, it is almost certain that the U.S. will continue to take a firm stance toward Iran. Should Iran and Oman announce tolls for vessels using the Strait of Hormuz, this would likely provoke a strong military response from the United States. For now, markets can only hope that the 60-day temporary agreement will bring a period of calm to financial markets. Although free passage through the Strait of Hormuz may not resume immediately, shipping routes are expected to be restored soon. Once data shows a significant increase in crude oil shipments via this route, oil prices are likely to face further downward pressure, while gold prices will rise further.  Yesterday, spot gold prices unusually showed a one-sided upward trend throughout the day, rising steadily from an Asian market low of $4,065.54 to reach a high of $4,267.71 during New York midday trading. It failed to pull back significantly afterward and further advanced this morning in Asian markets to hit $4,304.15. From a Gann square perspective, gold has broken through the strong 180-degree resistance at $4,210 and is now approaching the weaker resistance at $4,310. Therefore, it can be temporarily concluded that gold has stabilized above $4,210 and is likely to target the strong 270-degree vertical angle resistance at $4,410. However, caution is advised: gold is expected to briefly peak tomorrow. If the current upward momentum continues, early next week may bring significant downward pressure, with prices potentially falling near $4,120 before resuming their upward movement.  On the daily chart, gold has broken above the 50SMA (currently around 4159), suggesting a new upward wave is expected. However, there may still be a short-term pullback to consolidate first. Buyers could consider entering once the price retraces to the 50SMA. The first intermediate target would be approximately $4,417, which corresponds to a 50% retracement of the decline that began on April 17. The second and third targets are seen at $4,575 and $4,770, respectively.  The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

2026-08-05

Gold Price Rally Expected to Continue   May 8, 2026, 11:11 AM   According to foreign media citing two sources and a U.S. official, the United States, Iran, and Oman are close to reaching a temporary agreement aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with the U.S. expected to announce the deal today. The preliminary agreement reportedly grants Iran certain control over traffic in the Strait of Hormuz before any potential conflict breaks out. However, the temporary accord is valid for only 60 days, though this period may be extended.  Under the interim agreement, all vessels entering the Gulf via the Strait will pass through Iranian waters along the northern route, while vessels departing from the Strait into the Arabian Sea will travel along the southern route through Omani waters after coordination with Iran, without having to pay any fees during this 60-day period. Additionally, both sides will clear mines from the central channel of the Strait within 30 days; once completed, this route will serve as the designated shipping lane according to a permanent agreement soon to be negotiated between Oman and Iran.  Stimulated by news developments, gold prices rose repeatedly yesterday in New York, with spot gold reaching a high of $4,105.8. As seen on the hourly chart, prices subsequently pulled back from their peak and dipped as low as $4,065.54 during this morning's Asian session. However, they quickly rebounded, not only achieving yesterday’s projected target of $4,124 but also breaking through the upper resistance of the recent sideways range, hovering around $4,130. On the daily chart, gold has approached the extended resistance line of the downward trend since July 6. With tensions between the U.S. and Iran gradually easing, oil prices are expected to decline further, alleviating inflationary pressures and reducing the likelihood of global central banks raising interest rates. This could support further upside for gold. In the short term, the next key target is the 50-period SMA on the daily chart (currently around $4,159). If gold breaks above and holds above $4,210, it could open up even greater room for further gains.  The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.