Gold market analysis

2026-08-04

"Higher Chance of Gold Price Breaking Above 4,120" – Completed on April 8, 2026, 11:02   With Trump postponing a new attack on Iran, market expectations have shifted toward the possibility of renewed negotiations between the two sides. As a result, international oil prices declined and gold prices rose. On Monday, New York crude futures opened lower with a gap down, falling below $80 at one point to hit a low of $78.46 before hovering around $81 currently. Meanwhile, spot gold initially dipped to $4,019.2 in early trading in New York yesterday, then stabilized and rebounded during the midday session after consolidating at lower levels.  Overall, gold prices continue to fluctuate around the 20SMA on the daily chart (currently at approximately 4059). This morning, they reached a high of $4069.45 in early Tokyo trading and once again broke above the 50SMA on the hourly chart (currently at around 4057), suggesting a potential strong rebound. According to TD count analysis, if gold confirms a breakout above the descending trendline resistance on the hourly chart, the next target would be around $4124—slightly above the resistance level of $4120, which marks the upper boundary of the main price range since July 24 on the hourly chart.  Observing the price range, gold is currently near the midpoint of the aforementioned sideways zone (4058.06). Although theoretically the chances of moving up or down are equal, the hourly chart shows that three recent lows are extremely close together, suggesting a sense of hesitation—either falling further or rebounding. Therefore, it is more likely that prices will continue to rise. In the short term, the key resistance level is at $4,120. However, once this level is breached, a significant number of stop-loss orders are expected to trigger, further pushing prices higher. As such, we anticipate stronger resistance at the Gann square's 180-degree angle at $4,210. For intraday trading, buying on dips remains the primary strategy.  The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

2026-08-03

Gold prices show short-term tendency toward volatile gains   March 8, 2026, 11:04 AM   The situation between the U.S. and Iran remains deadlocked, with both sides issuing conflicting statements. Iran insists that the Strait of Hormuz will not return to its pre-war state, while Trump claims there is already an agreement regarding the strait. The large-scale attack on Iran originally planned for last night has been canceled at the request of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and Iran. He further believes that an agreement on denuclearization will also be reached.  Gold prices have entered a sideways consolidation phase. Since falling below $4,120 on July 23, spot gold has remained within a range of $3,995 to $4,120. Although this morning's price surged higher following Trump's renewed "TACO" move, the market reaction differed significantly from previous instances. After briefly reaching $4,083.77, gold quickly reversed and dipped as low as $4,047.56 before stabilizing. On the hourly chart, there are signs that gold is holding above the 20-period SMA (currently around $4,054). On the five-minute chart, a cluster has formed above the 20-period SMA ($4,055), suggesting potential for an upward breakout.  However, the short-term resistance remains at $4,120; only a breakout and sustained hold above $4,110 would open the door for further advancement toward $4,210. Currently, the daily chart of spot gold still shows a narrowing triangle pattern. If today's price can break above $4,143 (without needing to close), it could signal an upward breakout, with a projected target around $4,356 based on the TD line measurement. On the intraday level, the 20-period SMA on the hourly chart serves as the primary support. Should the price fall below $4,043, it would be advisable to cut losses or set stop-loss orders accordingly. The short-term strategy should focus mainly on buying on pullbacks, with expectations of continued sideways-to-upward movement in the near term.  The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

2026-07-31

Gold price likely to test lower levels intraday 31/7/2026 11:17 Completed   Yesterday, the U.S. released its second-quarter GDP preliminary estimate, showing a year-on-year quarterly growth of 1.5%, down from 2.1% in the first quarter. Non-residential investment growth slowed from 10.6% in Q1 to 8.4%, while AI-related industry growth decelerated from 13.8% to 8.8%. Exports declined from 10.9% to 4.5%, whereas consumer spending increased more sharply, expanding from 0.5% to 3.2%. Nevertheless, overall data indicates a slowdown in economic growth.  Data briefly boosted gold prices, with spot gold reaching $4,120.16 early in New York trading—slightly surpassing the high set after the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. However, amid rising expectations of a rate hike, gold maintained its upward momentum and held firm at higher levels before declining again this morning in Asian markets, falling back below $4,100. As seen on the hourly chart, since the start of this week, gold has attempted three times to break above $4,110 but failed each time, indicating that it will likely remain stuck in a sideways consolidation pattern in the short term.  Tonight, the U.S. will release the July University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, expected to rise from 49.5 to 54.4, moving back above the neutral threshold. If the data indicates stronger consumer confidence and subsequent inflationary pressure, the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike would increase, further weighing on gold prices. Gold is expected to remain under pressure today, testing lower intraday levels, with the hourly 50SMA (4061.34) likely serving as the first major support.  The gold price is currently testing the upper trendline on the hourly chart. Although a false breakout is more likely, if the price closes below the 50SMA on the hourly chart over time, the downside target measured by the TD count would be $3,968, and a new TD demand line would need to be calculated only upon its formation. Even from the 5-minute chart perspective, gold remains constrained by the 20SMA, and a reversal of the downtrend seems unlikely before the price breaks above the 50SMA (currently around $4,091). The key resistance level for the day remains at $4,110.  The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

2026-07-30

Gold price likely to test $4,000 level again – July 30, 2026, 11:12 AM   As expected, gold prices rebounded sharply. Following the Federal Reserve's FOMC interest rate decision yesterday, spot gold surged to a high of $4,109.26, then further climbed to $4,116.44 before sharply correcting and erasing all gains made after the rate announcement. As of early Asian trading today, the price has formed a narrowing triangle pattern awaiting a breakout.  It should be noted that the FOMC decided by a 9-to-3 vote to keep the federal funds rate between 3.5% and 3.75%, with three members supporting a 25-basis-point hike—the highest number of votes in favor of a rate increase since September 2016. Yet, gold prices rose instead of falling, which I believe was due to profit-taking and short covering. Typically, investors seeing three votes in favor of a rate hike would anticipate the Fed's earliest possible tightening in September, prompting them to buy dollars and sell foreign currencies and gold.  However, gold prices had already been declining for some time before the interest rate decision was announced. The spot price dropped as low as $3,995.96 in early trading in New York. Since the start of this week, gold reached a high of $4,116.16 on Monday during Asian morning sessions, marking a cumulative drop of $120.2 so far this week. In other words, after returning to its previous level yesterday, gold has resumed its downward trajectory. With the price forming a narrowing triangle pattern and the rate decision increasing the likelihood of a September rate hike, the chances of breaking above $4,110 have diminished, while the probability of testing below $4,000 again has risen.  Currently, only if the U.S. inflation rate drops below 3% will the FOMC members be likely to reconsider the timing of interest rate hikes or whether to maintain rates unchanged. Based on this, gold prices are expected to fluctuate between $4,000 and $4,110 throughout August, with significantly increased volatility. As seen on the 5-minute chart, gold has broken below the ascending trendline of a narrowing triangle, suggesting further downside pressure during the day. The first key support level is at $4,043, and there remains a high probability of another test of the psychological $4,000 level.  The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

2026-07-29

Gold price expected to bottom out and rebound today   July 29, 2026, 11:12 AM   Gold prices were under pressure for most of yesterday. After falling to a low of $4,011.92 during early trading in New York, spot gold recovered slightly, rising to $4,047.16 before encountering resistance at the 20-day moving average (currently around $4,030), which triggered another decline. This morning, prices tested below yesterday's low, dropping to $4,010.42 before recovering again. Currently, gold is trading above the 20-day SMA. The U.S. Federal Reserve will release its interest rate decision tonight, with expectations that the federal funds rate target range will remain unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%. Gold prices are likely already priced in this outcome, and the accompanying statement will influence short-term market movements.  From the Gann Square perspective, the low level touched by gold this morning coincides precisely with a strong support (or strong resistance) at the 90-degree angle. Therefore, a powerful rebound after gold fell to the $4,010 level was almost inevitable—provided we rule out the possibility of a major downward breakout. In practical trading, there is only one scenario where a counter-trend position can be taken before a reversal signal appears in the candlestick pattern: when price has already reached a strong support level. However, I must emphasize that under no circumstances should investors enter the market without setting a stop-loss order beforehand, or immediately upon entry. Assuming gold remains above $4,010, the first resistance level for the rebound would likely be $4,110 (Gann's 135-degree angle), followed by the next strong resistance at $4,210.  Judging from short-term cyclical trends, the weakest scenario for gold prices is a bottom forming by Friday this week before rebounding, while the best-case scenario would be a bottom today followed by an immediate recovery—this likely relates to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. Assuming a bottom has already formed today, a daily rebound target could be set at $4,063.29. Since the previous upward move slightly exceeded 61.8%, indicating strengthening upward momentum, if this current rally also reaches the 61.8% level, gold could climb to $4,075.77. On the other hand, if prices continue to decline, a potential downside target or endpoint could be $3,972.24, at which point a low-buy strategy may be considered.  The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

2026-07-28

Gold price expected to fluctuate above $4,000   July 28, 2026, 11:13 AM (completed)   Yesterday, the spot gold price failed to hold above $4,110. As seen on the hourly chart, after reaching a high of $4,116.16 during early Asian trading, the price lost momentum and subsequently formed a large bearish candle, breaking below $4,100. It then developed a descending flag pattern ahead of New York market open, falling further below the 20-period SMA (currently around $4,085) shortly after the New York session began, with prices dropping as low as $4,065.42. However, by the close of the New York session, the price remained below the 20-period SMA, forming a small rounded top pattern amid sideways fluctuations.  In today's early Asian session, gold prices continued to decline, with the 50-period SMA on the hourly chart (currently around 4094) also broken, temporarily reaching a low of $4042.7. However, since July 17, gold has formed a narrowing triangle, and is currently positioned right at the extended support level of its ascending trendline. On a larger time frame—since June 30—gold has similarly been consolidating within a narrowing triangle. Of course, it could also evolve into a balanced descending channel pattern; using a Fibonacci extension of 100% from the recent drop, gold could potentially fall to $3972.24.  The sudden drop in gold prices does not appear to be related to the U.S.-Iran situation, as oil prices are also falling. Therefore, the only plausible explanation is the upcoming Federal Reserve FOMC monetary policy meeting. The market remains uncertain about the stance of the new Fed chair, but one thing is certain: even though the latest U.S. inflation rate has declined from 4.2% in May to 3.5% in June, it still exceeds the upper threshold. Thus, even if the Fed does not raise interest rates, it would be unlikely to issue a dovish statement. It is therefore no surprise that gold prices retreated ahead of the rate decision.  However, there is still room for gold prices to rebound. As long as the Federal Reserve maintains interest rates unchanged at this meeting and does not clearly signal a potential rate hike in the next one or two meetings—instead opting to monitor developments in the Middle East and their impact on oil prices and inflation—gold prices are likely to remain stable above $4,000 with fluctuations. For short-term bearish trades, it's advisable to set relatively tight stop-loss levels, such as just above the day's high or above the highest point of the past hour. Conversely, for bullish entries, investors should wait for clear upward signals before entering, or place stop-loss orders below the lowest level of the most recent hour. Currently, tensions between the U.S. and Iran remain volatile, while the Fed continues to adopt a cautious stance on monetary policy. Therefore, $4,000 remains a strong support level for gold, making a sharp breakdown below this level unlikely in the near term.  The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

2026-07-27

Gold price holds steady at 4,110 as upward trend continues   July 27, 2026, 11:07 AM (completed)   The United States began pausing its attacks on Iran late last Friday, and Iranian military officials also announced a halt to retaliatory operations. However, Yemen's Houthi rebels claimed they attacked Saudi Aramco facilities in the Red Sea port cities of Jizan and Yanbu on Saturday, though Riyadh and Saudi Aramco have not confirmed these reports. Iran's Foreign Ministry stated that communication between the two sides remains ongoing. The news triggered a sharp drop in Brent crude oil prices, which opened lower in today's Asian session with a gap down, briefly testing below $87 before recovering slightly to around $88.  On Thursday, spot gold closed below the 20-day moving average (currently around 4073) on the daily chart. It further declined to a low of $4021.56 on Friday before recovering and closing at $4053.17. Stimulated by the aforementioned news, gold opened higher this morning in Asian trading with a gap up, rising above the 20-day moving average on the daily chart and reaching a high of $4116.16. Similarly, if gold closes above the 20-day moving average for three consecutive trading days, the credibility of an upward trend will increase.  On the other hand, measured by the TD line, if gold prices rise above $4,157 today, even without a closing break, the projected upward target would be around $4,373. Therefore, maintaining a strategy of buying on dips remains the primary approach. The first key support level for the day is the hourly 50 SMA (currently around $4,071), and a short-term reversal point is expected this Wednesday (based on New York close). Coincidentally, that day also marks the release of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision—caution is advised against a rapid drop in gold prices. Additionally, if gold manages to hold steady above $4,110 in the near term, attention should also be paid to whether a minor double top could form at $4,166.  The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

2026-07-24

"Gold Price Reverses Sharply, But Double Bottom Pattern Unchanged" Completed on 24/7/2026 at 10:21   Yesterday, oil prices surged while gold prices sharply declined. The main reason was that Houthi rebels in Yemen, backed by Iran, used drones and missiles to attack two Saudi Arabian oil tankers in the Red Sea and simultaneously blockaded the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. This waterway is a crucial passage linking the Gulf of Aden to the Red Sea, through which 12% of global crude oil exports transit via the Suez Canal. With the strait now blocked by Houthi forces, crude oil supply has been disrupted.  New York crude oil surged, reaching a high of $94, as concerns over inflation reignited worries about interest rate hikes, weighing on gold prices throughout the day. Spot gold fell below $4,120 early in yesterday's European session, and the decline intensified, dropping to a low of $4,041 during New York midday trading before stabilizing. However, there was no strong rebound, and in this morning's early Asian session, it peaked at only $4,050.75.  Yesterday's sharp drop in gold prices prevented it from closing above the 20SMA (currently around $4,068) for three consecutive trading days, but did not break the double-bottom pattern on the daily chart. Now we need to watch whether Trump responds with strong measures—I believe that either the U.S. or Israel may launch a military strike against the Houthi forces, reopening the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. This would likely cause oil prices to decline and gold to rebound again. I still expect $4,000 to remain a strong support level for gold, and in the short term, prices are likely to fluctuate between $4,000 and $4,210.  The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

2026-07-23

Gold Price Expected to Continue Rising—Buy Bias Recommended   July 23, 2026, 9:29 AM   As expected, gold prices have maintained an upward trend. From the daily chart perspective, spot gold has closed above the 20-day SMA (currently around 4075) for two consecutive trading days. Although it had previously closed above this level for two days in early July, only to fall back below on the third day and resume its downward momentum, today's close above the 20-day SMA strengthens the likelihood of a strong rebound. However, the next key resistance remains at the 50-day SMA (currently around 4243). A breakout above this level could signal a reversal of the downtrend that began in early March this year.  Moreover, gold prices on July 17 showed a relatively high low (not below the June 30 low). According to wave theory, waves 1 and 2 have already formed, and we are now entering a strong upward third wave. If the rise in wave 3 equals 1.618 times the gain of wave 1, gold could climb to $4,379.47, with wave 5 potentially testing $4,500. Using a simple double-bottom measurement method, gold could also rise to $4,460.  From the hourly chart, if measured by Fibonacci extension levels, gold could rise to $4,219.22 if the upward move since July 17 reaches 100% of the gain from June 30 to July 6. If the current price action is considered to be in Wave 3, any pullback should be viewed as a buying opportunity. Whether investors choose to capture potential profits during these corrections depends on their risk appetite and market responsiveness. Otherwise, it may be wiser to focus on following the broader trend with lower risk, as trading both sides could lead to losses outweighing gains.  The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

2026-07-22

Gold Price Likely to Have Formed an Upward Trend   July 22, 2026, 9:22 AM   U.S. President Trump suggested that Iran may have transferred key components needed for nuclear weapons production to Qom, and indicated that the U.S. would soon launch a major strike on the region. In response to recent developments in U.S.-Iran relations, the foreign exchange market reacted sharply, with non-U.S. currencies continuing to decline. The euro fell back toward 1.14 against the dollar, while the pound dropped below 1.34 against the dollar, and the dollar surged to around 163 against the yen. Conversely, both oil and gold prices rose simultaneously—crude oil rebounded above $85, and spot gold prices jumped sharply in early Asian trading today, surpassing the $4,100 level.  As seen on the daily chart, New York crude oil broke above the 50SMA (currently around 83.5) yesterday, with significant resistance expected near $88.26. Spot gold, as anticipated, successfully challenged $4,110, rising as high as $4,115.84. On the daily chart, gold also broke above the 20SMA (currently around $4,069) yesterday. Earlier it was noted that gold had been closely tracking the 20SMA downward recently, indicating its readiness for an upward breakout—exactly as expected.  The key issue currently is how oil and gold prices would react if the U.S. military launched a larger-scale attack on Iran. In theory, if the U.S. attacks Iran again, it could eventually reopen the Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes, leading to a drop in oil prices. Meanwhile, gold prices would likely continue rising due to persistently high global inflation rates. Ultimately, the outcome will depend on whether the Federal Reserve shifts toward a more hawkish monetary policy—should it tighten policy to combat inflation (via interest rate hikes), gold prices would face downward pressure.  As seen on the daily chart, gold has formed a higher bottom, signaling the end of the downtrend since mid-April this year. The market is now likely to move in a sideways-upward direction, with an upward trend already established. Gold is expected to further test the Gann 90-degree angle at $4,210, with the next target being the 50SMA (currently around $4,253). Ultimately, resistance may emerge only when prices reach $4,417, as $4,410 lies at the Gann 270-degree vertical angle.  The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

2026-07-21

"Gold Price: Intraday Strategy Suggests Buying on Dips" – Completed on 21/7/2026 at 11:13   The situation between the U.S. and Iran has seen another shift. According to Fox News, citing senior U.S. officials, President Trump will decide in the coming days whether to escalate military operations against Iran and resume full-scale combat. Officials stated that if a full-scale military campaign resumes, its scale and intensity would far exceed the nine-night airstrikes that began on July 7. On the other hand, an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson confirmed receiving proposals from multiple mediators suggesting a 10-day ceasefire, aimed at finding ways to revive the temporary agreement between the U.S. and Iran.  Gold prices rose steadily as expected, breaking above the 50-period SMA on the hourly chart (currently around $4,006) yesterday and reaching a high of $4,040 ahead of New York's open. Although it quickly pulled back afterward, it held firm above the 50-period SMA in a narrow consolidation range during New York trading hours. Today, although gold briefly tested below $4,000 at Asian market open, it swiftly recovered and surged higher, surpassing yesterday’s high to reach $4,043.65. If Trump signals a pause in further military actions against Iran, a significant rise in gold prices is expected, with $4,110 becoming the first major target. A break above this level would likely push prices toward $4,210.  Gold prices are expected to continue rising intraday along the 20-period SMA on the 5-minute chart (currently around 4030), with the 50-period SMA (currently around 4021) serving as a key support level. My trading strategy suggests buying on pullbacks, entering when prices retrace to the 20SMA. If gold breaks below this line and tests the 50SMA, I would consider exiting on a rebound to the 20SMA, or even switch to a reversal short position. There are already signs that gold is entering a trending phase; investors should patiently wait for optimal entry and exit points. Without clear reversal signals, avoid making speculative moves or acting out of fear by entering too early or taking profits prematurely.  The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

2026-07-20

Gold prices expected to stage a short-term rebound wave   Completed on 20/7/2026 at 11:15   Following the temporary suspension of the ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran, military clashes have resumed. The U.S. launched a new round of airstrikes, while Iran targeted multiple U.S. bases in the Middle East. Reports indicate that three American soldiers were killed within two days. In response, U.S. forces carried out another airstrike against Iran late at night—marking the ninth consecutive nighttime attack by the U.S. on Iran. Meanwhile, Iranian media, citing sources from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, reported that no vessels are currently allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and any ship attempting to cross will face Iranian strikes. They further stated that as long as the U.S. continues hostile and provocative actions, the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed, and Iran will not issue passage permits to any vessel.  Oil prices surged in today's Asian session, with New York crude futures briefly reaching $84.6 before slightly retreating to around $83. Gold reacted differently this time; although it opened lower and continued to decline early in the morning, spot gold rebounded after dropping to $3,983.04. On the hourly chart, gold broke above the $4,000 level with a bullish engulfing pattern, followed by further gains, temporarily reaching a high of $4,028.72. In fact, after hitting a low of $3,959.91 in early Friday trading in New York, gold had already staged a strong recovery on the hourly chart with another engulfing pattern, closing at $3,997.47 and briefly surpassing the $4,000 mark. Gold is likely to see further short-term upside momentum.  From the hourly chart, gold remains in a downward trend since July 6, although there have been several rebounds during this period. The rebound from the lows on July 8 and 14 reached approximately $116 to $117. Based on yesterday's low of $3,959.91, gold should be able to rise to around $4,076—approaching the 50% retracement level of the entire downtrend at $4,081.20. From a Gann square perspective, gold has now re-entered above the 90-degree angle at $4,010. If it can hold steady above this level, it may further challenge the 135-degree resistance at $4,110 in the short term. However, this resistance is relatively light, and gold could potentially advance toward the 180-degree level near $4,210 before encountering significant resistance. For today, key support levels are expected at $4,005 and $4,000.  The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

2026-07-17

Gold price expected to hit bottom at $3,800 in the medium term   July 17, 2026, 11:08 AM   As expected, gold prices broke below $4,000 and reached the measured downside target of $3,987 based on the TD line. After testing $3,974 early in New York trading yesterday, spot gold rebounded to a high of $4,016.64 before declining again. It later made a new intraday low at $3,969.78. Although it briefly rose to $3,996.06 this morning in Asian markets, it clearly faced resistance from the 20-period SMA on the hourly chart (currently around $4,003), prompting another decline. The price stabilized temporarily after touching the $3,970 level.  For now, the decline in gold prices is primarily driven by the high likelihood of a new U.S. military attack on Iran in the near term. It would be inaccurate to attribute the price drop solely to profit-taking, as gold has shown a volatile downward trend since Tuesday, following a noticeable rise on Monday—indicating fresh selling pressure from new funds entering the market. In terms of short-term trends, gold may only find a bottom and rebound next Monday. However, if Trump decides to launch an attack on Iran this weekend, the chances of a sharp drop in gold prices on Monday are very high, potentially pushing prices down to the Gann square level at $3,810 before stabilizing.  The monthly chart of gold shows that the 20SMA currently stands at approximately $3,820. Since gold broke above this level in October 2022, it has only closed below it once—specifically in September 2023. Therefore, the 20SMA on the monthly chart can be regarded as a key long-term support level for gold prices. Based on this, strong support is expected around $3,800, which should be sufficient to trigger a significant mid-term rebound. If the rebound targets 50% of the decline from the historical high, gold could rise to $4,777.78. Additionally, considering the largest upward move since the November 2022 low, gold has now retraced over 38.2% from its peak (to $4,075.37). A 50% correction would bring prices down to $3,605.82, but this scenario appears unlikely at present. Instead, gold is more likely poised to initiate a strong mid-term recovery rally.  The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

2026-07-16

"High Chance of Gold Price Breaking Below $4,000 in the Short Term" – Completed on 16/7/2026 at 10:54   The U.S. plans to intensify its military actions against Iran, including expanding airstrikes to target the "Koh-e-Sar" tunnel complex linked to Iran's nuclear program, as well as seizing Kish Island and other Iranian islands along the Strait of Hormuz. This indicates that Trump aims to achieve two objectives: first, to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities; second, to secure the Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes so that vessels passing through are no longer vulnerable to Iranian attacks. Controlling Iranian islands along the strait would enable this goal, while capturing Kish Island would effectively grasp Iran's strategic lifeline, thereby forcing Iran into a nuclear deal with the United States.  Tensions between the U.S. and Iran have intensified, fueling market risk aversion. Gold prices, which had recently risen on the back of easing U.S. inflation, are now seeing profit-taking. After reaching a high of $4,080 during New York's midday trading yesterday, gold weakened and continued to decline in early Asian trading today, currently trading at a low of $4,026.16. It should be noted that markets have already begun pricing in an increased likelihood of U.S. military action against Iran. If such actions materialize, gold is expected to fall below the $4,000 level, with higher chances of testing $3,910, and potentially even dropping further toward the Gann square angle level at $3,810 before finding support.  On the 5-minute chart, gold prices experienced a strong rebound after yesterday's London close. The subsequent pullback from the high of $4,080.19 was nearly 61.8% of the rebound wave, and the following rally only reached about 50% of the prior decline, indicating weak momentum in the price movement. Currently, gold appears to have formed a minor double bottom around the $4,026–$4,027 level. However, on the hourly chart, gold has already broken below the TD ascending trendline, with a projected downside target at approximately $3,987—close to the July 14 low of $3,985. It is expected that gold will find stronger support only when it approaches this level over the next two days. Nevertheless, given the possibility of U.S. military action against Iran this weekend, gold could gap lower on Monday, potentially falling near $3,910 before stabilizing.  The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

2026-07-15

"Gold Price Forms a Short-Term Rising Flag Pattern" Completed on 15/7/2026 at 9:43   In response to events and data over the past two days, gold prices indicate that the market's main driver remains the U.S. interest rate trend, while the conflict between the U.S. and Iran in the Middle East only occasionally exerts temporary effects on gold. Yesterday, the U.S. released its June CPI data, showing that year-on-year inflation dropped sharply from 4.2% to 3.5%, while core CPI fell from 2.9% to 2.6%. On a month-on-month basis, overall inflation declined by 0.4%, whereas core inflation remained unchanged. All figures came in below expectations, prompting the market to reassess the likelihood of further Federal Reserve rate hikes this year.  CME's FedWatch predicts that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged on July 29 has sharply risen from 58.3% to 84.5%, while the chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike in September has slightly declined from 51.2% to 50%. Meanwhile, the likelihood of maintaining current rates has significantly increased from 24.9% to 42.2%. This makes sense, as inflation at 3.5% remains above the Fed's 3% upper threshold. However, if crude oil prices remain below $80 per barrel in July, year-on-year oil price gains would further moderate, potentially bringing inflation down to 3% or lower. In such a scenario, the possibility of a rate hike this year would be eliminated, which could support gold prices.  After the release of U.S. inflation data, gold prices surged sharply, with spot gold rising from $4,028 to $4,089.75, then further climbing to $4,102.72 before retracing. It found support at around $4,069 and strengthened again, forming a double top after reaching as high as $4,100 ahead of London's close, which led to increased selling pressure. Prices later stabilized after dropping to a low of $4,043.2 in late New York trading, subsequently fluctuating within a range of approximately $4,048 to $4,060.  As seen on the hourly chart, gold remains in a downward trend over the past 76 days. However, since yesterday's New York session, the price has formed an ascending flag pattern. Measured by a 100% Fibonacci extension, gold is expected to rise toward $4,157.16 before facing resistance and potentially retracing. On a larger time frame, there is potential for gold to form a double-bottom reversal with the June 30 low, with the July 6 high of $4,202.49 acting as the neckline and serving as the next target for future price action.  The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

2026-07-14

Gold prices are expected to fluctuate around the $4,000 level.   July 14, 2026, 11:07 AM – Finalized   Gold's performance has largely met expectations. Although spot gold dipped below the July 8 low of $4,022 and even tested the psychological $4,000 level, it did not see a further sharp decline. After hitting a low of $3,986.71 at London's close yesterday, prices stabilized immediately, and bearish momentum failed to gain traction in New York trading. Although gold briefly fell to $3,985.76 during early Asian trading today—testing yesterday’s low—the hourly chart shows that prices ultimately reversed course within an hour, rising back above $4,000.  Measuring the hourly chart's movement since July 6 using Fibonacci extension levels, gold has already declined by slightly more than 78.6% from its peak on July 10. If the decline reaches 100%, gold could fall to $3,958.11. On the hourly chart, gold's rebound since yesterday has been capped by the 20SMA at 4,027, suggesting that as expected, a recovery wave may not occur until this Thursday.  Since $4,010 lies at the 90-degree angle of Gann's square, it serves as a key support (or resistance) level for gold prices. A break below this level is expected to intensify the downward trend. Tonight, Federal Reserve Chair Wash will testify before the House committee, and the U.S. Department of Labor will release June's CPI data today. Gold prices are likely to fluctuate around the $4,000 level. However, if prices drop near $3,958.11, bearish positions should consider taking profits. This is because the decline has already reached a 100% Fibonacci extension, and the price is approaching the lowest point since the peak in January—$3,944.23. A break below that level would create a triple bottom divergence between the daily chart and the 9RSI, potentially triggering a stronger rebound in the future.  The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

2026-07-13

"Gold Price Under Short-Term Pressure, May Form Double Bottom Rebound" 13/7/2026 11:16 Completed   Military conflict between the U.S. and Iran has reignited in the Middle East, with an explosion occurring near a U.S. military base in Bahrain. The U.S. Central Command stated it had destroyed dozens of Iranian targets, aiming to weaken Iran's ability to continue attacking international shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil prices opened higher in Asian markets, rising as high as $74.64, while gold opened lower, breaking below $4,100 again. Gold prices subsequently continued to decline, falling to a low of $4,061 before briefly rebounding to $4,077.50, only to drop back below $4,070 later.  Federal Reserve Chair Wash will testify before the House committee tomorrow, on the same day that the U.S. releases its June CPI data. Core CPI is expected to remain up 2.9% year-on-year, while overall CPI is projected to rise slightly less than 4.2% year-on-year due to a sharp drop in oil prices. Nevertheless, inflation remains significantly above the target level. Markets anticipate that Wash may hint at the possibility of a rate hike during the hearing, and if this signals a shift in monetary policy, gold prices could face downward pressure.  From the daily chart, although gold prices broke above the 20SMA (currently around 4109) earlier this month, they failed to close above this level for three consecutive trading days and have since retreated below it. At the start of this week, prices are likely to face pressure due to these factors. However, last week gold repeatedly approached the 50SMA (currently around 4146), differing from previous trends, indicating a potential upward breakout. Once short-term influences subside, gold is still expected to rebound significantly. In the short term, prices may test the prior low of $4022 as support, but there is a chance of forming a double bottom. If gold continues to decline, a bottom could be reached by Thursday with a subsequent rebound. Unless the Federal Reserve's monetary policy changes noticeably, $4000 will remain a strong psychological support level, while the 50SMA on the daily chart acts as the primary resistance for any bounce.  The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

2026-07-10

Gold Prices Expected to Launch a Major Rebound Wave   October 7, 2026, 11:07 AM   Gold prices continue to rise, reflecting a gradual easing of market concerns over the U.S.-Iran situation. Investors are once again positioning themselves according to their own needs. Trump's inconsistent stance also makes investors hesitant to get too close—particularly since he believes that a large-scale, prolonged war between the U.S. and Iran is unlikely, implying that Middle East tensions will not severely impact financial markets. Moreover, as we move into the second half of the year, Trump must begin preparing for the midterm elections. Although I believe he no longer cares about winning or losing, successfully brokering a nuclear deal with Iran would greatly help Republicans maintain control of Congress.  Gold prices have shown stronger performance than expected. After breaking above $4,110 during yesterday's early New York session, spot gold has held firmly above that level. This morning in the early Asian trading session, it briefly dipped to $4,109 before quickly recovering and returning above $4,110. On the hourly chart, gold reached a high of $4,138.38 last night—representing a rebound from Wednesday evening’s low of $4,022, which already exceeds 61.8% of Monday’s maximum decline ($4,133.63). Following yesterday’s retest above $4,110, gold spent most of the day consolidating, suggesting it is now poised for a further upward breakout.  From the daily chart, gold prices have begun to form a wave pattern with each successive wave higher than the previous. Recently, gold has been fluctuating around the 20SMA (currently at approximately 4132), marking the first time since breaking below this level on March 12th that it has consistently tested the 20SMA. Currently, it appears that a major rebound is imminent, with the 50SMA (currently at around 4353) as the next key target. A breakout above this level is highly likely, with the initial upside target at $4,417. Once gold stabilizes above $4,410, the next targets will be $4,660 and $4,735. Investors should therefore pay close attention—once gold breaks above the 20SMA with a strong bullish candlestick, it will signal the start of a significant upward rally.  The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

2026-07-09

Gold price hits $4,110 as key intraday resistance level   September 7, 2026, 11:14 AM   Iran attacked vessels navigating in Omani waters, and U.S. forces also carried out strikes against several Iranian targets. The United States stated that Iran had recently launched unjustified attacks on ships transiting this international waterway, and the U.S. will hold those responsible accountable. Foreign media reported that U.S. officials revealed the duration and intensity of America's new actions would depend on Tehran's next move.  Amid renewed tensions between the U.S. and Iran, oil prices surged while gold prices sharply declined. Crude oil reached as high as $76 yesterday, while spot gold fell below $4,100, hitting a low of $4,022.22. Although it later rebounded, it remained clearly constrained by the psychological resistance level at $4,100. With the U.S.-Iran situation unlikely to ease in the short term, gold is expected to remain under pressure but may still hold steady above the $4,000 mark.  Technically, gold is currently drifting lower along the 20-period SMA on the hourly chart (4068). A further decline could form a double bottom with yesterday's low, and a break below that level would likely create a bullish divergence with the 9RSI. Support at $4,010—aligned with Gann's square at a 90-degree angle—is expected to trigger a strong rebound. Market reaction to escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran has been relatively muted, so gold is likely to remain within its familiar trading range. However, if the $4,944 level is breached, long positions should consider taking profits. For now, $4,105 to $4,110 remains the key resistance zone for intraday rebounds.  The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

2026-07-08

Gold prices still have a high chance of short-term recovery   Completed on 8/7/2026 at 10:51   Yesterday, gold prices fluctuated. After touching a low of $4,117 near the start of European trading, spot gold rebounded and briefly rose to $4,180 in early New York trading. However, it subsequently declined steadily, breaching the $4,100 level and falling as low as $4,092. Although prices recovered later, they faced resistance after reaching a high of $4,126.6 this morning. Technically, gold remains clearly constrained by yesterday's low point before European market opening.  As seen on the hourly chart, gold's cumulative decline since July 6 has exceeded 38.2% of its maximum gain since July 1, and is just about $11 away from a 50% retracement level. Therefore, a strong rebound is expected today, with gold likely to retest the $4,200 level in the remainder of this week. Conversely, if gold continues its sideways downtrend, it may briefly find support and rebound near $4,080 or $4,050. For now, gold is expected to remain above $4,100 in short-term fluctuations.  On the daily chart, gold closed below the 20SMA (4143) yesterday, failing to remain above this level for three consecutive trading days. A move above $4202.67 would be required to confirm an upward reversal. In the short term, prices are expected to fluctuate around the 20SMA, awaiting a breakout opportunity. Additionally, with the daily chart showing divergence as the 9RSI has declined into severely oversold territory, the likelihood of a bullish turn is relatively high. If gold tests but holds above the June 30 low of $3944 in the near term and shows strong reversal signals, a short-term recovery can be anticipated. This could lead to further upward momentum, with resistance likely emerging around $4410.  The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.