Gold market analysis

2021-10-12

On October 12th. Today's volatility range: Although the voice of the Federal Reserve's delisting sings loudly, the employment data of the United States has repeatedly performed month after month, adding uncertainties, and the market is waiting for the core consumer price index of the United States on Wednesday. Under the lack of direction, the gold market will continue to fluctuate. Today's suggested volatility is between $1748 and $1764, and $1746 should not fall below, otherwise, the support of $1722 may be retried. Under the influence of the epidemic, customs clearance between Hong Kong and the Mainland has been closed for many months, and many people are unable to complete normal business or family reunion because of the failure of customs clearance between the two places. Good news came from Zuori. Since yesterday, Guangdong Province, Will try to resume mainland residents to apply for business in Hong Kong; Business endorsement holders are required to apply to come to Hong Kong through the Hong Kong Easy Access Scheme and provide a valid nucleic acid negative test report before they can come to Hong Kong from Hong Kong port. Only the Guangdong government restricts people from areas with medium and high risk of epidemic and those who have been to areas with medium and high risk of epidemic within 14 days before application. I hope that after the easy arrival in Hong Kong goes smoothly, are there any checkpoints for Hong Kong people going north? It will be removed after a long time. The new economic stocks have been greatly adjusted after the supervision in the Mainland kept making moves. In terms of Alibaba Group, the stock price has almost halved in the past year, let alone compared with the historical high and low levels! Recently, however, ICBC and the mainland media. Without making negative comments on relevant industries, investors yearn that the mainland's crackdown on new economic stocks has come to an end. Technology stocks became the locomotive of yesterday's market rise, and the technology index closed up by more than 3%. At the same time, the Hang Seng Index rose nearly 500 points. On the level of 25,000, it closed up 487 points or 1.96%, and closed at 25,325 points. In Europe and Asia, due to the bottleneck of fuel supply, the power crisis is getting more and more severe, and countries in the oil group are unwilling to increase supply, and the market is expected to be in winter. In the future, when the temporary demand will continue to increase, the international oil price will continue to rise, and the closing price of new york oil futures will rise above US$ 80, the first time in nearly seven years! Rising energy prices and bottlenecks in supply have led to an intensification of the euro zone's trade. Market worries have increased the operating costs of enterprises. The three major European stock markets have developed individually. The German stock market, which relies more on heavy industry, has fallen, and the British and French stock markets have fallen. Then it rose, and the German DAX index fell by 0.09%; The CAC index in Paris, France rose by 0.68%; The FTSE 100 Index rose 0.16%. US stocks fell for two consecutive days. US stocks opened higher, but new york oil futures soared to a seven-year high. The market is worried about the possible persistence of high inflation. In addition, some well-known investment banks have lowered the economic growth forecasts of the United States this year and next year, and US stocks have turned down, with Dow Jones index and S&P 500 index both falling by 0.72%. Nasdaq The index fell by 0.64%. Yesterday, the performance of the gold market was lackluster. Most of the time, the volatility was only US$ 2 to US$ 3, and only during the opening hours of the US market, there were significant fluctuations. The US stock market opened higher, attracting foreign exchange funds, and the US dollar index fell nearly 94 points. Level, the price of gold was in a hurry, and the daily high and low levels were completed within two hours. After that, the Wall Street stock market turned down, and the price of gold also fell. The lowest price of gold yesterday was $1,750, and the highest price was $1,761, closing at $1,754, down $3. For detailed analysis and operational suggestions, please CLICK the following link to join the group and check with the administrator. https://t.me/mingtakchat

2021-10-11

On October 11th. Today's volatility range: The two largest economies in the world are in debt crisis, which can be said to be a side effect of unlimited quantitative easing. It is necessary for the Federal Reserve to withdraw from the market. However, the employment data of the United States is repeated month after month, which is extremely difficult to touch. Whether the Fed's delisting plan changes has become another focus of the market. Under the lack of direction, the gold market will continue to fluctuate this week. Today's suggested volatility is between $1742 and $1764. Mainland real estate debt defaults have exploded again. In addition, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has to supervise the algorithm of Internet information services, and technology stocks have fallen sharply. Last Monday, the Hong Kong stock market was shaken. At most, mainland real estate debt defaults have exploded again. After falling below 24,000 points, the Hang Seng Index finally fell by 540 points, a drop of 2.19%. Although it can close above 24,000 points, it is still crumbling! With the release of the last Policy Address of the current administration on Wednesday, The theme focused on the "Northern Metropolitan Area" project, which boosted Hong Kong's good infrastructure stocks and Hong Kong's real estate stocks. The market also sought after the banking stocks that were financed and invested. Although some foreign investors played down China's economic prospects, they won gold in China. At the end of the holiday, Beishui resumed to support Hong Kong stocks in the south. The Hang Seng Index opened 372 points higher on Thursday and rose more and more for two consecutive days. Last week, it closed up 262 points or 1.07% to close at 24,837 points. In Europe, the rise in energy prices and supply bottlenecks have led to the intensification of the euro zone's economy. The market is worried that the rise in economy will increase the operating costs of enterprises, but the job market is still poor, and all the increase cannot be passed on to consumers. Ultimately affecting profits, venture capitalists reduced their holdings of European stocks, and the three major European stock markets fell for three consecutive days at the beginning of the week. By Thursday, some members of the management Committee of the European Central Bank pointed out that the European Central Bank planned to withdraw from responding to the COVID-19 outbreak. During the emergency rescue plan, investors should not expect the central bank to raise interest rates too early. The news stimulated investors to chase the risky market step by step, and the three major European stock markets retaliated greatly, completely losing ground at the beginning of the week, and the whole line rose by more than 1%. In a week, Germany's DAX index rose by 0.33%; The CAC index in Paris, France rose by 0.65%; The FTSE 100 Index rose 0.97%. On Monday, the US stock market fell due to the impact of debt default. The market is worried not only about mainland enterprises, but also about the United States itself. U.S. President Biden said that Congress failed to raise or freeze the debt ceiling within two weeks. There may be a debt default in the United States. The yield of 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds has dropped by 1.5%, and the three major indexes of U.S. stocks have dropped by more than 1% to 2%. On Tuesday, the purchasing managers' index of non-manufacturing industries in the United States performed better than market expectations. The three major indexes on Wall Street began to rebound. Moody's, a rating agency, expected that the US Congress would pass the debt ceiling bill, maintaining the AAA rating of US Treasury bonds and the US Senate reached a short-term debt ceiling agreement on Thursday. Coupled with the easing of tension between China and the United States, U.S. stocks rose for three consecutive days, until Friday, when non-agricultural data hit a low level since December last year, and U.S. stocks retreated. In the summary week, the Dow Jones index rose by 0.98%, the biggest weekly increase since June. The S&P 500 index rose 0.82%; Nasdaq index rose 1.05%. Mainland real estate debt defaults have exploded again, and China's economy is in danger at all levels. However, US President Biden warned that the United States may default on its debt, and the two largest economies in the world are in debt crisis, which is affected by safe-haven demand. The gold market rose by up to US$ 20 on Monday, but the market waited for Friday's non-agricultural data. The performance of the gold market was uneven, and the daily rise and fall were limited to US$ 10. Until Friday, the US non-agricultural data was released, and the number only increased by 194,000. Employment, the smallest increase since December last year, was far lower than expected. The price of gold was immediately boosted by poor data, and the highest price of gold was $1,781. However, the unemployment rate in the United States announced later unexpectedly dropped more than expected. The lowest price of gold was $1,753, and it closed at $1,757, rising by $2 on Friday and falling by $3.7 in a week. For detailed analysis and operational suggestions, please CLICK the following link to join the group and check with the administrator. https://t.me/mingtakchat  

2021-10-08

On October 8th.   Today's volatility range: China and the United States are expected to ease, and the U.S. Senate has won enough votes to pass the short-term debt ceiling agreement. With both financial and political stability, the yield of U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds has risen to the high level in mid-June, and the price of gold is under pressure. Yesterday, the United States announced that the number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time last week was better than the market expectation. Is it a prelude to the official non-agricultural employment data released tonight? It is expected that today's Eurasian period will fluctuate within a narrow range, ranging from 1750 to 1760. Speculation volatility, if the non-agricultural data is preferred tonight, you can chase the empty space at $1,748, and stop the corrosion with 3 mosquito gold, and try to see $1,735. Continuing the rising trend of US stocks every other night, Hong Kong stocks rebounded strongly yesterday! The market hopes that the two parties in the United States will reach an agreement on the debt ceiling, eliminating the crisis of US debt default, enhancing investors' confidence in the risky market and driving the Asia-Pacific region. Major stock markets rose. Hang Seng Index opened 372 points higher yesterday, and rose more and more, and finally closed up 735 points or 3.07%, closing at 24,701 points, returning to the level of 24,000. To sum up, yesterday's market rise, except that technology stocks followed the rise of the US market, Hong Kong real estate stocks should also take credit; Yesterday, when Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor attended the Legislative Council's Q&A meeting after the Policy Address, some Members questioned that the implementation of the "Northern Metropolitan Area" took too long, and the Chief Executive answered on the spot, saying that he could consider streamlining the planning process. Accelerate completion; The development of the northern part of Hong Kong is already beneficial to the real estate industry. Driven by the government's accelerated policy, the leading stocks of Hong Kong's four major real estates rose by 1-7%. The banking stocks also performed well and got rid of the haze brought by Evergrande's bankruptcy. In addition, Beishui reopened today after experiencing the Golden Week holiday. Yesterday, the turnover of Hong Kong stocks exceeded 100 billion yuan, and it was obvious that there were funds to sneak into the market to welcome Hong Kong stocks to the south.   Europe opened higher and closed higher yesterday. Some members of the management committee of the European Central Bank pointed out that investors should not expect the central bank to raise interest rates too early when the European Central Bank plans to withdraw from the emergency assistance plan for responding to the COVID-19 outbreak. The news stimulates investors to chase quickly. Risk, the three major European stock markets retaliated and completely recovered the lost ground every other day, with the whole line rising by more than 1% and Germany DAX index rising by 1.84%; The CAC index in Paris, France rose by 1.65%; The FTSE 100 Index rose 1.20%. The U.S. Senate reached a short-term debt ceiling agreement this morning, which lifted the risk of U.S. government debt default. Besides, U.S. White House national security adviser Sullivan said yesterday that he had met with Yang Jiechi, director of the Office of the Foreign Affairs Working Committee of the CPC Central Committee. The achievements will help ease the violent conflict between the United States and China, and understand each other's viewpoints, and create a good atmosphere for the meeting between the top leaders of the two countries, thus resolving the contradictions between the two sides. Under the condition of financial and political stability, the market atmosphere is optimistic, with all three Wall Street indexes recording gains, Dow Jones index rising 0.98% and S&P 500 index closing 0.82%. Nasdaq index rose 1.05%. China and the United States are expected to ease, and the U.S. Senate has won enough votes to pass the short-term debt ceiling agreement. With both financial and political stability, the yield of U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds reached 1.57%, which returned to the high level in mid-June, and the price of gold fell under pressure. The gold price was as low as $1,752 and as high as $1,767, and closed at $1,755, down $7. For detailed analysis and operational suggestions, please CLICK the following link to join the group and check with the administrator. https://t.me/mingtakchat

2021-10-07

October 7(th) Today's volatility range: Yesterday, the U.S. released small non-agricultural data, which rose for three consecutive months and beat expectations. The yield of U.S. 10-year treasury bonds dropped, which stimulated the gold price to rebound from a low level. However, the rise of the U.S. dollar suppressed the upward trend of gold price. In addition, the market is still waiting for the official non-agricultural employment data released on Friday, so the gold price only rose slightly to close yesterday. Today, it is still long and short. Today, the suggested volatility is between 1750-1771 US dollars. Chief Executive Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor announced the last Policy Address in his term of office yesterday, proposing to set up a "Northern Metropolitan Area" in Yuen Long and North District, covering an area of about 300 square kilometers, which will provide 926,000 residential units and accommodate 2.5 million people in the future. She suggested loosening ancestral halls in the New Territories, considering amending the New Territories Ordinance to relax restrictions on the sale of ancestral halls, and increasing opportunities for land supply. The Chief Executive also pointed out that in order to tie in with the connection between the "Northern Metropolitan Area" and the Mainland, the Hong Kong-Shenzhen Western Railway, which connects Hongshuiqiao to Qianhai, Shenzhen, will be connected in terms of transportation facilities. The policy address also mentioned the reorganization of the Housing Transport Bureau in order to speed up the land approval process. On the financial side, Lin Zheng didn't write much, but only mentioned measures such as further expanding the two-way circulation channel of cross-border RMB funds, and allowing the stocks traded in the southbound direction of Hong Kong Stock Connect to be denominated in RMB. The focus seems to be trying to integrate Hong Kong into the Mainland, which is more than pushing up Hong Kong's international financial status. The new Policy Address of the Chief Executive will benefit infrastructure stocks and some Hong Kong real estate stocks, and HSBC, which is determined to develop the Mainland, will also benefit. However, the performance of Hong Kong stocks was not as good as that of foreign investors yesterday. The Hang Seng Index rose first and then fell, closing down 137 points or 0.57% to 23,966 points, falling 24,000 points and hitting a new low for one year. The soaring energy prices have aggravated inflation in Europe, and investors are once again worried that inflation will continue to rise, which will hit the speed of economic recovery in Europe. The three major European stock markets fell by more than 1% across the board, while the DAX index in Germany rose by 1.46%. The CAC index in Paris, France rose by 1.27%; The FTSE 100 Index rose 1.15%. The small non-agricultural data released yesterday was better than the market expectation, and investors worried that the Federal Reserve would speed up the contraction, and US stocks rose early. Later, the market spread that the Democratic Party and the Party reached a plan to end the deadlock of the debt ceiling and avoid the US government's debt default. The market sentiment immediately turned into optimism, with Dow Jones index falling by 400 points at most, rising by 102 points and closing by 0.3%, and S&P 500 index rising by 0.41%. Nasdaq index rose 0.47%. Gold fell in Eurasia, and then the United States released small non-agricultural data, which rose for three consecutive months and beat expectations. The yield of US 10-year Treasury bonds dropped, which stimulated the gold price to rebound from a low level. In addition, the market was still waiting for the official non-agricultural employment figures on Friday, and the gold price rose slightly to close yesterday. The lowest price of gold was $1,746, and the highest price was $1,765, which closed at $1,762, up $3. For detailed analysis and operational suggestions, please CLICK the following link to join the group and check with the administrator. https://t.me/mingtakchat

2021-10-06

October 6(th) Today's volatility range: The U.S. economic data is improving, and Dee expects the U.S. Congress to pass the debt ceiling bill to maintain the AAA rating of U.S. Treasury bonds, which has stabilized the stability of the US dollar in the foreign exchange market. The US dollar index has returned to the 94-point level to suppress the price of gold. Yesterday, the price of gold retreated from Monday's increase in the direction of deficiency. Small non-agricultural data came out tonight, and the market expects about 428,000 jobs to increase. Since April this year, the published figures are all worse than expected. If this is the case in the future, it will help the gold price to break through the level of $1,770. Today's suggested volatility is between $1750 and $1774. Today, the current government announced its last Policy Address, and Chief Executive Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor will read the full text in the Legislative Council later today. However, when she was interviewed by the media yesterday, she took the lead in revealing some key points, saying that the policy address would focus on the housing and land supply that the public cares about, but she said that the relief measures had already been released, so the new policy address would not mention the support measures under the epidemic. Some experts pointed out that the government will reorganize the Housing Transport Bureau in order to speed up the land examination and approval procedures. In terms of land supply, attention will be paid to the development of New Territories North and the links with Shenzhen will be strengthened. Suggestions such as loosening ancestral halls and forcing the auction threshold will also be put forward in this policy address. Back to yesterday's performance of Hong Kong stocks, technology stocks are still under pressure. The Hang Seng Science and Technology Index started from the algorithm that the Bureau of Industry and Information Technology wanted to supervise Internet information services, and has fallen for four consecutive days, with a cumulative decline of 4%. Yesterday, Alibaba hit a new low in listing in Hong Kong. Together with Tencent Holdings and Meituan, it fell by more than 1%, and the Hang Seng Index fell by nearly 350 points at most. However, financial stocks and resource stocks did well to make up for the losses caused by technology stocks, and 24,000 shares of Hang Seng Index were recovered. In the absence of Beishui, the turnover of Hong Kong stocks was less than 100 billion yuan, which eventually rose by 67 points or 0.28%. Three major European stock markets rebounded after falling for three days. European economic data is going forward, and European Central Bank President Lagarde expects the European economy to continue to recover, indicating that although the virus still plagues Europe, she expects the economy to return to the level before the virus pandemic before the end of the year! The three major European stock markets rose across the board, and the German DAX index rose by 1.05%; The CAC index in Paris, France rose by 1.54%; The FTSE 100 Index rose 0.92%. The institute for supply management non-manufacturing purchasing managers' index released yesterday performed better than the market expectation, and the market was optimistic about the economic prospects of the United States, benefiting the investment atmosphere. The three major indexes on Wall Street rebounded after falling for three consecutive days, and the Dow Jones index rose by 0.92%. The S&P 500 Index rose by 1.01%; Nasdaq index rose 1.25%. Moody's, the rating agency, expects the US Congress to pass the debt ceiling bill to maintain the AAA rating of US Treasury bonds, reflecting that the US will be able to fulfill its debt service obligations on time. Moody's expectations promoted the stability of the US dollar in the foreign exchange market, and the US dollar index returned to the 94-point level. The rising US dollar suppressed the safe-haven demand for gold, and with the announcement of small non-agricultural enterprises coming soon, the gold market completely retreated its gains on Monday. The lowest price of gold was once at $1,749, and the highest price was at $1,770, closing at $1,760, down $10. For detailed analysis and operational suggestions, please CLICK the following link to join the group and check with the administrator. https://t.me/mingtakchat

2021-10-05

October 5(th) Today's volatility range: The default of real estate debt in the Mainland has exploded again, and China's economy is in danger at all levels. However, US President Biden warned that the United States may default on its debt, and the two largest economies in the world are in debt crisis, which can be said to be brought about by unlimited quantitative easing. It is necessary for the Federal Reserve to withdraw from the market, and once the Fed starts to shrink its table, it will be detrimental to the future trend of the gold market. Tomorrow's focus will be on non-agricultural data in the United States, but today it may lack direction, so it is better to speculate on volatility. Today's suggested volatility is between $1758 and $1772. According to the market, Hesheng created and acquired Evergrande Property Management, which was split from Evergrande Real Estate. However, even if the transaction is successful, the proceeds can only be said to be a drop in the bucket for the total debts of Evergrande Group. Evergrande's debt default has already made investors feel the crisis brought by the high leverage of mainland real estate. Yesterday, another real estate Hesheng Company, Fantasia Nian, issued an announcement, saying that it failed to repay the priority notes with the original due principal totaling US$ 500 million, and the remaining outstanding principal amount was nearly US$ 200 million. According to the company, affected by repeated epidemics, industrial policies, macroeconomics and other factors, the liquidity of the company has become tense. The company is liaising with local governments, financial institutions and financial advisors to set up an emergency team, hoping to resolve the staged difficulties as soon as possible. The mainland real estate debt defaulted again, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology had to supervise the algorithm of Internet information service, so the technology stocks fell again. Yesterday, the stock market was shattered. At most, the mainland real estate debt defaulted again and fell below 24,000 points. The Hang Seng Index finally fell by 540 points, with a drop of 2.19%. Although it could close at more than 24,000 points, it was still crumbling! Three major European stock markets fell for three consecutive days. Guindos, deputy governor of the European Central Bank, said that inflation is expected to continue to rise in the next two to three months. The market is worried that the operating costs of enterprises will affect profits. In addition, the real estate debt default in the Mainland has once again exploded, and technology stocks have been sold off. The three major European stock markets have fallen across the board, and the German DAX index has fallen by 0.79%. France Paris CAC index fell 0.61%; Britain's FTSE 100 index fell 0.23%. The US stock market also fell due to the impact of debt default. The market is worried not only about mainland enterprises, but also about the United States itself. U.S. President Biden said that if Congress fails to raise or freeze the debt ceiling within two weeks, the U.S. may default on its debt. The yield of U.S. 10-year treasury bonds once fell by 1.5%, while interest-sensitive technology stocks led the decline. Nasdaq index and Dow Jones index both fell by more than 300 points. The three major indexes on Wall Street fell across the board yesterday, with Dow Jones index falling by 0.94% and S&P 500 index falling by 1.3%. Nasdaq index closed down 2.14%. Yesterday, the gold market fell first and then rose, and the price of gold fell in Eurasia. When it entered the US market, the US stock market fell, and US President Biden warned that the US might default on its debt. The market demand for safe haven increased, which stimulated the price of gold to rise by 20 dollars. The gold price was as low as $1,748 and as high as $1,771, and closed at $1,770, up $9.  

2021-10-04

October 4(th) Today's volatility range: China is facing an economic crisis, and the poor employment data of the United States have become good news for the gold market. The risk is that the Fed will withdraw from the market soon, and once the Fed starts to shrink its table, it will be detrimental to the future trend of the gold market. However, the news of the Fed's water collection has spread for too long and should have been digested by the market. Last week, the price of gold got rid of the trend of falling for three consecutive weeks, and it is expected that the price of gold will continue to rise this week. Wednesday focused on non-agricultural data of the United States, which may fluctuate greatly. Today, it is suggested that the amplitude is between 1755-1766 US dollars, the upper break can chase more, and the erosion can be stopped at 1764 US dollars, and the stroke can be seen at 1730 US dollars. Two mosquitoes beat four mosquitoes, with a worthwhile stroke rate. Last Friday was China Goodsky Day, and the Hong Kong stock market was closed. In the past week, the Hang Seng Index rebounded by 385 points or rose by 1.59%. However, to sum up, in September, under the policy of "common prosperity" put forward by Chairman Ji, many mainland sectors were hit. In addition, the debt default of Evergrande Real Estate caused poor performance of Chinese stocks. The Hang Seng Index dropped by more than 1,300 points, a drop of 5.3%, and fell for four consecutive months, underperforming the world stock markets. Rising energy prices and supply bottlenecks have led to an intensification of the economy in the euro zone, and the market is worried that the rising economy will increase the operating costs of enterprises. However, the job market is still poor, and all the increase cannot be passed on to consumers, which will eventually affect the profits. Venture investors reduced their holdings of European stocks. In addition, Bank of England Governor Bailey said last week that "if the policy is changed, his preferred tool is interest rate adjustment", and the market expects that the UK will speed up the adjustment of the current interest rate. The three major European stock markets fell across the board, and the German DAX index fell 2.42%; France Paris CAC index fell 1.82%; Britain's FTSE 100 index fell 0.35%. Members of the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives approved the short-term appropriation bill before the death line until the end of the year, which successfully avoided the shutdown of the U.S. federal government and stopped the operation of the federal government due to the emptiness of the treasury. In addition, with the coming out of oral drugs to treat COVID-19, U.S. stocks rebounded on Friday. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell spoke last week, saying that the United States is still far from full employment, while inflation is much higher than the target. The news that the Federal Reserve proposed to reduce its debt purchase in October was sung into the clouds, and the market generally believed that the Fed would speed up its interest rate hike. To sum up the week, the three major Wall Street indexes fell across the board yesterday, with Dow Jones index falling 1.4% and S&P 500 index falling 2.2%. Nasdaq index closed down 3.2%. Powell's speech yesterday also pointed out the pain point of the American economy, that is, the employment situation is "contrary to inflation". The number of people who applied for unemployment benefits for the first time in the United States last week was announced, and the number rose again to 362,000, which has risen for three consecutive weeks. After the figures were released, the risk market was flooded. The three major indexes on Wall Street fell across the board yesterday, with Dow Jones index falling 1.59% and S&P 500 index falling 1.25%. Nasdaq index closed down 0.44%. Last week, the gold market was low and then high. The market expected the Fed to raise interest rates faster, and the price of gold fell on Tuesday and Wednesday. However, Powell said in his speech that the pain point of the US economy was that the employment situation was "contrary to inflation". The US dollar index dropped from a high level, and the bulls made counter-attacks. The gold market once rose sharply by more than 40 dollars. On Friday, the gold price still went up, rising by 4 dollars. Last week, the highest price of gold was $1,764, and the lowest price was $1,722. It closed at $1,761 and rose by $10 in a week. For detailed analysis and operational suggestions, please CLICK the following link to join the group and check with the administrator. https://t.me/mingtakchat  

2021-10-01

10月1日   今日波幅區間: 一如市場預期，美國參、眾兩院在死綫前通過債務上限法案申請，成功避免美國聯邦政府停擺。更大的流動性將推使美國通脹加據，但就業數據遜預期，美元指數從高位回落。金價昨日重臨早日低位於的1722美元而不穿，1720美元仍是近期支撐所在，1760美元則是壓力所在。今日建議波幅在1743-1762美元之間。   國慶前夕，政府統計署發布本港零售銷售連升七個月，8月同比升11.9%，升幅比市場預期為好。政府表示8月升幅之所以擴大，是由於在8月開始發放首輪電子消費券，刺激市長消費意欲，並表示第二輪電子消費券會進一步改善零售銷售貨值，並加快零售業復甦。不過業界人士認為本港零售市道仍未出現復甦，表示對比疫情前的8月分，仍然跌近25%，縱使有電子消費券推動消費行為，但從實質數字顯示，零售業仍處於寒冬之中。   本港股市於9月最後一個交易日向下，內地進入黃金周，北水暫停流港，而內地又再打擊新經濟股；工信局指「現時互聯網信息服務演算法有不合理地被應用」，提出意見，要用三年時間，逐步建立監管體系。有在香港上市的各大科技龍頭公司跌1%至4%不等。恒生指數昨日下跌88點或0.36%。總結9月，「共同富裕」之下，恒指挫逾1300點，跌幅達5.3%，並連跌4個月。   歐洲股市先升後跌。歐洲經濟數據表現理想，包括英國第二季度經濟增長勝預期法國消費者支出月環比從負數轉正數、興及德國失業人數經季節性調整後有所減少，帶動大市向上，但市場傳英倫銀行將在下年加息3 次，而正在早一天之前，英國央行行長貝利表示「若改變政策，他首選的工具是利率調整」，暗示英國將加快調整現行利率。市場出現恐慌而掉頭，歐洲三大股市全綫下跌，德國DAX指數跌0.68%；法國巴黎CAC指數跌0.62%；英國富時100指數跌0.31%。   聯儲局主席鮑威爾表又再發揮語言藝術，表示美國距離充分就業還很遙遠，而通脹卻遠高於目標，但仍然預計通脹會減弱，一反早前「通脹將較預期更長」的說法！他並重申國會不批准提高債務上限，將形成災難性後果。美國財長耶倫更表示，希望永久取消「債務上限」的緊箍罩。美國參、眾兩院的議員當然沒那麼傻，只批准該法案至明年年底，成功避免美國聯邦政府停擺。   鮑威爾昨日的講話同時說出美國經濟的痛點，就是就業情況與通脹「背道而馳」。美國公布上星期首度申領失業金人數，數字再度上升至36.2萬人，已連續3周上升。數字開出後，風險市場出現散水現象，華爾街三大指數昨日全綫下挫，道瓊斯指數跌1.59%，標普500指數跌1.25%；納斯達克指數跌0.44%收市。   就業數據遜預期成多頭反攻藉口，金市曾急升超過40美元，金價昨日最低見1722美元，金價最高見1764美元，以1757美元收市，升30美元。   如欲了解詳細分析及操作建議，歡迎CLICK以下連結入群及向管理員查詢 https://t.me/mingtakchat [https://t.me/mingtakchat?fbclid=IwAR33zO2jB5CFF6fT7KDn-usSy1Ol74EPNavHNYI6AVbSx8iBWwYCaSTJ-Mo]

2021-09-30

9月30日 今日波幅區間: 市場預期美國國會一定會讓提高債務上限的申請得以通過，更大的流動性將推使美國通脹加據，預期美聯儲在11月開始閂水喉的聲音高唱人雲，美元持續走強打壓金市。金價昨日考驗1720的支持，今日建議波幅在1720-1735美元之間，跌穿1720美元追沽，1723止蝕，搏見1711美元。 恒大公布出售所持有的盛京銀行股份套現接近100億人民幣，買家為有國企背景的瀋陽盛京金控投資集團，在出售約兩成股權後，恒大仍持有盛京銀行約14.57%股權。恒大系股票昨日反彈。新一份施政佈告即將出爐，政府先行放風，針對土地供應問題，將下調強拍機制，從現行的8 成減至7成，地產股因而受惠。恒生指數升163點或0.67%。 英國央行行長貝利表示若會改變政策時，他首選的工具是利率調整，暗示英國將加快調整現行利率。市場解讀經濟向好，歐洲股市昨日反彈，歐洲三大股市全綫上升，德國DAX指數升0.77%；法國巴黎CAC指數升0.84%；英國富時100指數升1.14%。   聯儲局主席鮑威爾早前出席國會見證會，表示美國高通脹將持續更長時間，並作出預警，表示若國會不批准提高債務上限，將嚴重打擊美國經濟，會形成災難性後果！市場預期美國國會一定會讓提高債務上限的申請得以通過，更大的流動性將推使美國通脹加據，預期美聯儲在11月開始閂水喉的聲音高唱人雲，雖然美國十年期國債孳息率昨日略為回調至1.52%，但仍挨近半年以來高位，但美元仍然受追捧，美元指數升近一年以來高位94.43水平。   美國十年期國債孳息回調，刺激美國股市開市上升，然而對息口敏感的科技股依然受壓，華爾街三大指數昨日個別發展，道瓊斯指數升0.27%，標普500指數升0.17%；納斯達克指數跌0.24%收市。   美元指數升至近一年以來高位，金市承壓，金價最高見1746美元，最低見1722美元，昨日以1727美元收市，跌7美元。 如欲了解詳細分析及操作建議，歡迎CLICK以下連結入群及向管理員查詢 https://t.me/mingtakchat  

2021-09-29

9月29日   今日波幅區間: 美國通脹升溫，支持鷹派收水的方向，連聯儲局主席鮑威爾昨日出席國會見證會時亦表示，通脹將較預期更長，一改以往通脹是臨時性的態度。而美國一旦開始縮表，將不利金市後市走勢。金市因美國十年期國債孳息率上升而持續受壓，將考驗1720的支持硬度，今日建議波幅在1728-1745美元之間。   中國近期嚴格執行限電政策，除了限制工廠開工時間，一般工廠只能在一星期中獲批開工三日，並禁止民眾不能在用電高峰期開熱水器及微波爐等高耗電產品，也指示各地商場使用冷氣的準則及要求商場提早關門。探究其原因，是因為中國是全球首個走出疫情陰霾的國家，訂單從其他競爭對手中流入內地，中國上半年工業生產整體上升，能源消耗強勁，而內地電力有一半來自燒煤所推動，但今年開始，商品價格不斷飊升，煤炭價格也不例外，而內地發電廠全是有背景公司，加上中國特有的政策文化，難以將成本轉嫁與使用者，電價無法彌補煤炭成本，導致每多發一度電，就越虧損的情況，唯有限量提供電力供應。   限電政策除了是經濟問題，也關乎國家面子問題，國家主席習近平於上年年尾在聯合國氣候峰會上承諾，到 2030 年，中國的二氧化碳排放量將比 2005 年下降 65% 以上，但第一年減碳成績就見紅，要習主席的面子往那裡放？   期指結算前夕，本港股市連續兩日反彈，為了避開國家工信用部早前提出的防止壟斷政策，阿里巴巴旗下多個應用程式已接入微信支付，阿里昨日升逾6%，帶領整體大市上揚，恒生指數升至24,500點收市，升291點或1.2%。   能源價格上漲，也令投資者擔憂能源危機可能衝擊經濟復甦，歐洲股票唯獨石油和天然氣類股份做好，其餘大部分板塊下跌，尤其是科技股因國債孳息率上升而急挫。歐元區主要股票市場跌超過2%，其中德國DAX指數跌2.09%；法國巴黎CAC指數跌2.17%；英國富時100指數跌0.50%。   聯儲局主席鮑威爾昨日出席國會作證詞，指因供應斷缺，美國高通脹可能比預期持續更長時間，同場的美國財長耶倫則預計美國通脹率將於是今年年底將接近4%，兩人均作出警告，若國會不批准提高債務上限，將嚴重打擊美國經濟，會形成災難性後果！市場對美國通脹不斷加劇作反應，推高美國十年期國債孳息率至1.56%；美元因而亦受追捧，美元指數升至93.8水平。   通脹持續增長，引發投資者轉向債市，十年期國債孳息上升打壓對息口敏感的科技股，加上內地限電令，勢將打擊有在中國生產的蘋果手機與及特斯拉等一眾企業的出貨量，納斯達克指數跌2.83%收市，創半年以來最大的單日跌幅，道瓊斯指數結束四連升，跌1.63%，標普500指數則跌2.04%。   十年期國債孳息率及美元指數上升，對金市造成衝擊，金價最高見1755美元，最低見1728美元，昨日以1734美元收市，跌16美元。 如欲了解詳細分析及操作建議，歡迎CLICK以下連結入群及向管理員查詢 https://t.me/mingtakchat  

2021-09-28

September 28th.   Today's volatility range: Another Fed official spoke. It is expected that the US economy will soon reach the threshold of delisting, and the Fed will soon withdraw from the market. Once the Fed starts to shrink its table, it will be detrimental to the trend of the gold market. But the American economy is still threatened by the mutant virus, Affect the pace of recovery, especially in terms of employment data, which makes Fed officials in a dilemma, and the road to raising interest rates may be even further away. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen will speak tonight, but it is not expected that there will be any substantive disclosure on delisting. Yesterday, it was said that the gold market will be heated up by the debt crisis of Evergrande Group, and the demand for hedging will increase, which will benefit the gold price. The risk is that the yield of US debt will rise, and it will be reconciled yesterday. It is expected that gold prices will still fluctuate within a narrow range, maintaining the suggested volatility yesterday. That is, between $1742 and $1755.   Following Fed President Powell's comments on Evergrande Group, yesterday, European Central Bank President Lagarde made a speech yesterday, which also mentioned this interior housing company facing huge debt default, saying that the company will only directly affect the economy of the euro zone, so the European Institute. The risks are limited, but Lagarde added that how the Chinese government handles the Evergrande crisis will affect the Chinese economy and the local real estate market, and will have ripple effects on the economies of other parts of the world. Her remarks are obviously directed to. In the way to remind. However, it is an ominous sign that Evergrande has not heard any news about debts due recently. Yesterday, after the Hang Seng Index opened lower, it rose more than 300 points, but then its trend weakened, and it closed up slightly by 16 points or 0.07%. President of the European Central Bank Lagarde spoke yesterday, saying that the current inflation rise in the euro zone is only temporary. She said that she has reason to believe that the two factors driving up inflation in the euro zone, including energy prices and supply bottlenecks, will be resolved next year. European Banking Unit and Energy Unit. Driven by the rising market, the three major European stock markets rose across the board, and the German DAX index rose by 0.27%; The CAC index in Paris, France rose by 0.19%; The FTSE 100 Index rose 0.17%.   Another Fed official spoke. It is expected that the US economy will soon reach the delisting threshold, the yield of 10-year US bonds will rise, and US stock investors will turn to bank stocks that are more sensitive to interest rates. On the contrary, rising interest rates will hit the performance of technology stocks. Yesterday, the three major indexes on Wall Street. Individual development, Dow Jones index rose 0.21%; The S&P 500 index fell 0.26%; The Nasdaq index closed down 0.52%. The gold market opened higher in the early period, and Evergrande's default affected the market risk aversion. The highest price of gold was once US$ 1,761, but the European stock markets made good progress. In addition, the yield of US 10-year bonds once rose above 1.51%, and the gold market began to fall, reaching a minimum of US$ 1,745, and closed at US$ 1,750 yesterday, with no increase or decrease. For detailed analysis and operational suggestions, please CLICK the following link to join the group and check with the administrator. https://t.me/mingtakchat

2021-09-27

September 27th.   Today's volatility range: It fell for three consecutive weeks. The Fed will withdraw from the market soon, and once the Fed starts to shrink its table, it will be unfavorable to the future trend of the gold market. However, the U.S. economy is still threatened by the mutant virus, which affects the pace of recovery, especially in terms of employment data. This puts Fed officials in a dilemma, and the road to raising interest rates may be even further away. On the other hand, the debt crisis of Evergrande Group is heating up, and the demand for safe haven is increasing, which is beneficial to the price of gold. The risk is that the yield of US debt will rise. Gold price is expected to fluctuate next week, But it rose slightly. Today's suggested volatility is between $1742 and $1755.   China's real estate giant Evergrande Group defaulted on its debt, which caused the global stock market to fall on Monday. At least three investors said that they had not received the repayment of the $83 million debt due on Thursday. Evergrande didn't take the initiative to contact them either, which means Evergrande didn't pay on schedule. Although it has always been the market practice to set a 30-day tolerance period, and the debt will be deemed as default after it is overdue, it depends on the attitude of Beijing government and Evergrande's financial situation. It's a run, a run, a run. On Friday, Evergrande even warned that its future will be full of uncertainties unless it gets cash injection quickly. Hang Seng Index fell for two weeks in a row and closed down 2.92% last week. Affected by the explosion of Evergrande, European stocks plummeted on Monday, but Universal Music Group was listed on the Dutch Stock Exchange on its first day, becoming the largest market capitalization company in 2021, rushing to the three major European stock markets, and the Bank of England announced that it would maintain interest rates. At 0.1%, it also maintained its bond buying scale, and the central bank announced that it would raise its forecast to 4%. The Bank of England explained that since the meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee last month, the recovery rate of global activities has shown signs of slowing down, and commodities. Against the background of strong demand and continued tight supply, global inflationary pressure remains strong, and there are signs that cost pressure may continue for some time. Finally, the three major European stock indexes developed individually last week and closed in Germany. DAX index fell 0.27%; The CAC index in Paris, France rose by 1.04%; The FTSE 100 Index rose 1.26%.   China Evergrande's debt crisis hit the financial market, and U.S. stocks also fell sharply at the beginning of this week. But before Wednesday's public report by the Federal Open Market Committee, the three major indexes on Wall Street jumped, and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell was more open-minded. Describing the debt problem of Evergrande Group seems to be unique to mainland China, and the risk of direct impact on the United States is very small, which may only affect the global financial market, especially the confidence of investors. The three major indexes on Wall Street all rose in one week, Dow Jones. The index rose by 0.62%; The S&P 500 Index rose 0.51%; Nasdaq index rose 0.02% to close. The explosion of Evergrande caused the global stock market to fall, and the VIX index, which reflected the panic in the market, once rose sharply, and investors pulled out of the global stock market. With the capital flowing into the bond market, the price of 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose, and the yield of 10-year Treasury bonds fell, thus boosting the gold price. On Wednesday, the U.S. Open Market Committee did not mention the schedule of debt reduction, but the bitmap showed that the pace of interest rate increase was also accelerating. The price of gold turned down. Last week, the highest price of gold was $1,787, and the lowest price was $1,741. It closed at $1,750 on Friday, and fell by $4 a week. For detailed analysis and operational suggestions, please CLICK the following link to join the group and check with the administrator. https://t.me/mingtakchat

2021-09-24

September 24th.   Today's volatility range: The virus still threatens the global economy, and the performance of employment data in the United States is still uneven. The Open Market Committee of the United States reported that the Federal Reserve did not propose a timetable for reducing debt purchases after Thursday's meeting, but Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. He said that if the economy continues to grow, the Fed Committee can make decisions more easily at the next meeting. From the bitmap, it can be seen that more members have turned into hawks, and the pace of raising interest rates in the market will be accelerated, which is not conducive to the trend of the gold market. The gold market will hold a weak position, or try again yesterday's low of 1,738. If you wear it, you will have the opportunity to meet 1,720 US dollars. Today, the suggested volatility is between 1,738 and 1,755 US dollars.   Evergrande's debt default continued to cool down, and the Beijing Central Government finally voiced its voice, asking local governments to make preparations for Evergrande's collapse. It is understood that the central government requires the state and county governments to complete the package for Evergrande real estate with local enterprise resources. Prevent uncompleted residential flats from causing public grievances. Evergrande said before that it had used off-site negotiation to solve the interest due yesterday, which also helped to alleviate the market's concerns about Evergrande's debt crisis. Evergrande Group rose by more than 17% yesterday, with two Hang Seng indices in succession. The trading day rebounded and then rose 1.19% to close. Although Evergrande's share price rebounded yesterday, the debt it owed was too large, and Beijing's statement seemed to imply that it would not rescue Evergrande. And the central government's instructions to the state and county governments are only. To maintain social stability. Therefore, it is the best policy for investors to buy fewer shares of Evergrande or uncompleted flats in Evergrande with low price.   Bank of England announced yesterday that it would keep the interest rate unchanged at 0.1% and maintain its bond buying scale. The central bank also announced that it would raise its forecast to 4%. The central bank explained that since the meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee last month, the recovery rate of global activities has been seen. There are signs of slowing down, and under the background of strong commodity demand and continuous tight supply, the global inflationary pressure is still strong, and there are signs that the cost pressure may continue for some time. Influenced by the speech of the central bank's monetary committee, the British stock market. After rising first and then falling, the FTSE 100 index in the UK closed down by 0.07%, while the stock markets in the Eurozone continued to do well. The DAX index in Germany rose by 0.88%, and the CAC index in Paris, France rose by 0.98%. After the public report of the Federal Open Market Committee, there were more members. Turning to hawks, investors interpret it as a view that the economic outlook is continuously optimistic. The three major indexes on Wall Street rose by more than 1% yesterday, and the Dow Jones index rose by 1.48%. The S&P 500 index rose 1.19%; Nasdaq index rose 1.04% to close.   It is expected that the US will raise interest rates early, the yield of US ten-year treasury bonds will rise to 1.43%, and the US dollar index will also rise above the 93-point position. The price of gold was completely under pressure yesterday. The highest price of gold in the early period was $1,777, but then it went up and down. The lowest price was $1738, and it closed at $1742, down $26. For detailed analysis and operational suggestions, please CLICK the following link to join the group and check with the administrator. https://t.me/mingtakchat

2021-09-23

9月23日   今日波幅區間： 變種病毒仍然威脅著全球經濟，美國就業數據表現仍然參差，今早2時美國公開市場委員會報告，一如所料，局方沒有在今次會議後提出減少買債，但聯儲局主席鮑威爾發言時表示，若經濟持續增長，美聯儲委員會在下次會議中能更輕鬆作決定，加上點陣圖顯示加息步伐也在加快，市場普遍認為美聯儲將在11月宣佈縮減，12月開始執行，並在明年加息1次，美國縮債及加息藍圖已畫好，只是未施工，到時美元將持續走強，將更不利金市走勢。   金市勢弱，今日建議波幅在1748-1770美元之間。   香港股票市場昨日假期休市。恆大集團董事局主席許家印在中秋節向旗下員工發家書，坦言公司正遇到前所未有的巨大困難，感謝員工的忠誠支持，並表示會盡快走出黑暗時刻。恆大汽車亦同時向新能源汽車的重要員工發認股權，包括公司三名董事與集團約3千多名科研人員，以穩定軍心，但恆大汽車已從歷史高位下跌9成六，跌至早日收市2.9港元，認股權行使價為3.9港元，最遲有效期為2023年第3季，現認股權內在值為零。另一方面，恆大向外發報，關於一筆價值8300萬美元的今日到期的利息會如期支付，表示已與相關債權人通過場外方式協商付息方法；字裏行間是暗示可能會找數，不過要拖或要求折扣？令人莫名其妙！   恆大債務違約降溫，風險市場反映正面，歐洲三大股市連續兩日升超過1%，德國DAX指數升1.03%，法國巴黎CAC指數升1.29%；英國富時100指數則升1.47%。   在美國聯邦公開市場委員會公開報告前，華爾街三大指數跳漲，中國恆大爆發的債務危機降溫，聯儲局主席鮑威爾認為恆大集團債務問題似乎只是中國內地獨有，直接衝擊美國的風險很少，但可能會影響環球金融市場，尤其投資者的信心。華爾街三大指數全數報升，道瓊斯指數升1%；標普500指數升0.93%；納斯達克指數則升1.02%收市。   美國昨日公佈維持在近零水平，符合市場預期。公開市場委員會議程中提及如果進展與預期大致一致，資產購買步伐可能很快就會放緩；而聯儲局主席鮑威爾發言時表示，若經濟持續增長，美聯儲委員會在下次會議中能更輕鬆作決定，鮑威爾同時也再次強調縮表不等同加息，但從點陣圖觀察，有一半委員預計美聯儲將在2022年開始加息，鷹鴿兩派勢力看似勢均力敵，但實質是預期加息的速度正在加快，市場普遍認為美聯儲將在11月宣佈縮減，12月開始執行，並在明年加息1次。   金市昨日下跌，美國公開市場委員會未曾提及縮債時間表，一度令市場出現亢奮，最高曾見1787美元，但很快市場認出事實，金價快速向下調整，金價昨日最低見1765美元，收市報1768美元，跌6美元。   如欲了解詳細分析及操作建議,歡迎点击以下連結入群及向管理員查詢 https://t.me/mingtakchat

2021-09-22

9月22日   今日波幅區間： 變種病毒仍然威脅著全球經濟，美國就業數據表現參差，市場在觀察美聯儲週四零晨的議息結果及政策委員會會議報告，美聯儲主席鮑威爾在議息之後的講話也是投資者所關心的，希望能從其講話用詞中獲得更多有關美聯儲縮債的信息，特別是何時會縮減購債規模。雖然局方未必會在今次會議後提出減少買債，但大方向仍是在今年將出現。而一旦美聯儲開始縮表，將不利金市走勢。   美元指數下跌，金市在避險情緒下受惠，但向上壓力仍大，昨日嘗試衝擊1780上方，預料金市今日仍將震盪，波幅增闊，今日建議波幅在1762-1790美元之間。   昨日全球市場企穩，市場傳中央政府對經濟管治之手已伸至香港的地產股，要求香港地產商人協助香港政府解決香港的房屋問題，香港地產建設商會執委會主席梁志堅發言，不清楚有沒有個別發展商曾與中央官員會面，但商會會在週五為這緊張事件召開會議，並強調在房屋供應上，一路有與政府保持溝通。林鄭月娥昨日透露發展商比過往更願意配合港府政策，除了撐土地共享計劃，亦有地產商無償借地給政府去興建過渡性房屋，料將有助紓緩香港房屋短缺問題。地產商除配合中方意願捐地外，亦撐股價，長實及新地不斷趁股價低迷而作出回購，恆生指數暫守2.4萬關口，最終報24221點收市，升122點或0.51%。   恆大債務違約造成週一全球股市下跌後，昨日市場正在消化這項世紀爆煲事件，但恆大危機仍然存在，本週四恆大將有一筆價值8300萬美元的利息到期，雖然有更多金融機構預料恆大將無力償還，但普遍認為是次恆大爆煲，不會成為「雷曼翻版」。而恆大事件連美國政府亦深表關注，白宮罕有為個別公司發聲，表示正在關注「一家總部設於中國、且大部分活動集中在內地的公司」的發展動向；並稱美國財政部一如以往密切關注環球市場，包括評估任何對美國經濟構成風險的事件，並做好應對工作的準備。亦有市場投資者期望在壓力下，北京政府在某程度介入，否則令事實件一發不可收拾，出現骨牌效應，禍及全球經濟復甦。   經週一環球股市暴跌後，全球股市企穩，環球音樂集團在荷蘭交易所首日掛牌，成2021年最大市值上市公司，衝起歐洲三大股市各升超逾1%，德國DAX指數升1.41%，法國巴黎CAC指數升1.5%；英國富時100指數則升1.13%。   中國恒大爆發的債務危機衝擊金融市場，美股週二開市曾反彈，但市場觀察美聯儲週四零晨的議息結果及政策委員會會議報告，好淡角力，最终華爾街三大指數各自發展，道瓊斯指數及標普500指數高開低收，分別跌0.15%及0.1%；納斯達克指數則升0.22%收市。   恆大爆煲引發週一全球股市下跌，刺激避險需求，加上美聯儲將在明日零晨宣佈議息結果，匯市較靜，美元指數最低曾見93.05，金價受惠而連升3日，金價昨日最低見1758美元，最高曾見1782美元，收市報1774美元，升10美元。   如欲了解詳細分析及操作建議,歡迎点击以下連結入群及向管理員查詢 https://t.me/mingtakchat

2021-09-21

September 21st. Today's volatility range: The virus still threatens the global economy, and the employment data of the United States is uneven. The market is observing the results of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting next week and the report of the Policy Committee meeting. The Federal Reserve will hold a meeting on interest rate tonight. Although the Bureau may not propose to reduce debt purchase after this meeting, the general direction will be this year, and the remaining problems are only the timing and magnitude. Once the Fed starts to shrink its table, it will be unfavorable to the trend of the gold market. Yesterday, the global stock market fell, and the gold market was boosted by risk aversion, but the upward pressure is still great. It is expected that the gold market will still fluctuate today, and the suggested volatility today is between 1745-1768 USD. he explosion of Evergrande's clay pot was a disaster, because the amount of money it owed was bigger than the loss of Lehman Brothers in that year. However, the Chinese government, with its stated position, would not use the national resources to save this frequently bankrupt interior company. Investors were worried that other interior stocks would be affected, and the financial market would also be affected, which would hit China's economic development, and even possibly jeopardize the global economic recovery. Investors withdrew from the stock market. Yesterday, the global stock market plummeted. Yesterday, Hong Kong stocks fell by more than 1,000 points at most. Apart from the continuous fermentation of Evergrande incident, the market reported that the central government's hand in economic governance had extended to Hong Kong real estate stocks, asking Hong Kong real estate businessmen to help the Hong Kong government solve the housing problem in Hong Kong. Local real estate stocks led the decline. The Hang Seng Index once fell below the 24,000 mark, and finally closed at 24,099 points, down 821 points or 3.3%. Investors are worried that China Evergrande's debt crisis may affect China's economy and even the whole world. The prices of European financial stocks have generally fallen, and the three major European stocks cannot escape the fate of overall decline. Germany's DAX index fell by 2.34%, and France's Paris CAC index fell by 1.74%. Britain's FTSE 100 index fell by 0.85%. China Evergrande's debt crisis has impacted the financial market, and investors are worried that it will hit the global economic recovery. When the US stock market opens, it will undertake the decline in Asia and Europe, in which the Dow Jones index, which represents the traditional economy, opened lower and fell deeper and deeper, closing at 1.78%. Nasdaq index hit hard, down 2.19%; The S&P 500 index fell less, but it also fell 1.66% to close. The explosion of Evergrande caused the global stock market to fall, and the VIX index, which reflected the market panic, once rose by 38%, reaching 28.8 points, and closed up by 19%, still at 24.8, which was the highest level in recent four months. Investors pulled out of the global stock market, and funds flowed to the bond market. The price of US 10-year treasury bonds rose, while the yield of 10-year treasury bonds fell, thus boosting the price of gold. Yesterday, the price of gold was as low as $1,742 and as high as $1,742. For detailed analysis and operational suggestions, please CLICK the following link to join the group and check with the administrator. https://t.me/mingtakchat

2021-09-20

9月20日   今日波幅區間：   變種病毒仍然威脅著全球經濟復甦步伐，就業數據表現參差，然而近期美國其他經濟數據表現理想，本星期議息，美聯儲未必會提出減少買債，但大方向將是在今年出現，剩下的只是時間性及幅度的問題。而一旦美聯儲開始縮表，將不利金市走勢。   市場在觀察美聯儲週的議息結果及政策委員會會議報告，預料金市今日將震盪，今日建議波幅在1740-1754美元之間。   港股過去一星期大跌，中央不斷地向內地各行各業提出管治，為內地企業製造不少限制，打擊市場的自由生長。工信部在上星期再次出招，為了防止壟斷，約見多間大型網絡商，提出要各公司各自撤去在互聯網平台上的屏蔽鏈接功能，受工信部約見參與會議的網絡龍頭公司全部下跌，反映投資者害怕中央政策帶來的不確定風險。加上恆大破產事件持續發酵，拖累同行及下游的物管股股價，而恆大的債權人包括內銀亦有壞帳撥備的可能，亦不能不受影響而下跌，恆生指數失守2.5萬關口，報24920點，一週跌1285點或4.9%。   受到變種病毒威脅，旅遊業受到嚴重打擊，歐洲多間名牌銷量下跌，加上歐元區第二季薪酬出現倒退，不利消費行情，雖然歐洲央行行長拉加德在週四發言，表示經濟復甦勢頭仍弱，央行仍需以財政政策支持， 以確保經濟可持續發展， 明言實施貨幣政策時需要有決心並且堅持下去。 流動性保持平穩提振了投資氣氛，但歐洲三大股上週亦難逃全面下跌命運，德國DAX指數及法國巴黎CAC指數連跌五週，分別下跌升0.77%及0.79%；英國富時100指數則連跌3星期，跌0.93%。   美國經濟數據上週表現參差，美國勞工部上週公佈8月分核心消費價格指數，市場預期升0.3%，實際數字僅增長0.1%，為過去七個月來最小漲幅，通脹有見頂回落跡象，加上首次新申領失業救濟人數回升33.2萬人遜預期，去除了美國聯儲局的加息壓力，但上月零售銷售出乎市場預期增長，按月上升0.7%，大幅超過市場原本預期的減少0.8%，強勁零售銷售數據又令市場對聯儲局提早縮減買債的預期升溫，美元指數升至92.9水平，10年期國債孳息率升至1.33%，債息上升打壓風險市場，華爾街三大股市上週全面報損，道瓊斯指數及跌0.07%；標普500指數跌0.58%，納斯達克指數跌0.47%。   金市連續兩星期下跌，美國經濟數據上週表現參差，金市週初成多空爭持格局，最高曾見1809美元，但美國強勁零售銷售支持美元反彈，美國10年期國債孳息率進一步上升，金價顯著承壓；金價在週四低曾見1745美元，以1754美元收市，跌40美元，在週五，經週四較大幅度調整後，市場欠缺方向，投資者在觀察美聯儲本週的議息結果及政策委員會會議報告，金價微升1美元，以一週計則跌33美元。   如欲了解詳細分析及操作建議，歡迎CLICK以下連結入群及向管理員查詢 https://t.me/mingtakchat

2021-09-17

September 17th. Today's volatility range: Yesterday, the gold market fell, and strong retail sales supported the rebound of the US dollar. The yield of US 10-year Treasury bonds rose further, and the price of gold fell under pressure, further suppressing the decline of gold price. The low price of gold was greatly adjusted on August 9. After a wave of rebound, the gold price rebounded only after it fell close to the gold ratio of 0.786, that is, around US$ 1,746 yesterday. The trend in the market outlook is still weak. Today, even if the rebound is still subject to US$ 1,766, it is better to be short at a high level. Today's suggested volatility is between $1746 and $1767. Earlier, in order to help teenagers avoid indulging in online games, the Mainland introduced strict regulations, which not only limited the time of teenagers' daily mobile games, but also required online game providers to provide real-name registration of their accounts. A political party made an investigation yesterday. The report found that the situation of online games played by minors in Hong Kong is also quite serious. More than 30% of the respondents said that teenagers in their families play computer games for three to five hours every day, which affects their studies as well as their physical and mental growth. The party promotes politics. Imitating the mainland, the government regulates laws and regulations that do not indulge adults in online games, including requiring real-name registration of accounts, limiting game time, and game themes, contents and playing methods. Attacking Tencent from the mouthpiece of the mainland government. At the beginning, Tencent's share price suffered repeated blows, and its market value evaporated by more than 3 trillion or 42%, falling out of the list of the top 10 global market capitalization. The Hong Kong government announced that the unemployment rate in the last three months has further dropped to 4.7%, which is lower than the market expectation. The unemployment rate in most industries has declined, especially in construction and transportation. Labour and The Secretary for Welfare, Law Chi-kwong, said that the sustained economic recovery and government vouchers to support the economy will further improve the labor market. However, the growth of the labor market could not reverse the investment climate of Hong Kong stocks yesterday, and Evergrande went bankrupt. After the event continued to ferment and dragged down the share prices of peers and downstream Wuguan stocks, the Hang Seng Index fell for four consecutive days, falling below the 25,000 mark, and closed down 365 points or 1.46% yesterday to close at 24,667 points. European Central Bank President Lagarde Speaking yesterday, he said that financial support is still needed in the economic recovery to ensure the sustainable development of the economy, and that it is necessary to be determined and stick to it when implementing monetary policy. Maintaining stable liquidity has boosted the investment climate in Europe. The three major stock markets rose in an all-round way, and the German index rose by 0.23%. The index of Chengdu Aircraft Company in Paris, France rose by 0.59%. The FTSE 100 Index rose 0.16%. Yesterday, the economic data of the United States was uneven, and the number of new jobless claims rose by 332,000, which was lower than expected. However, last month, retail sales exceeded market expectations, rising by 0.7% month by month, which greatly exceeded the market's original expected reduction of 0.8%. Strong retail sales data heated up the market expectation that the Federal Reserve would cut back on buying bonds early, with the US dollar index rising to 92.9 and the yield of 10-year treasury bonds rising to 1.33%. The three major stock markets in the US stock market developed individually, with retail sales last month. Sales rose beyond market expectations, and Dow Jones index and S&P 500 index opened higher. However, the market expected the Federal Reserve to collect water earlier and the yield of 10-year government bonds rose to 1.33%, which hit the risk market, Dow Jones index and S&P.. The 500 index fell to close, down 0.18% and 0.16% respectively, while the Nasdaq index rose for two consecutive days and then rose 0.13% to close. Yesterday, the big gold market fell, strong retail sales supported the rebound of the US dollar, and the US 10-year treasury bond yielded interest. The rate rose further and the price of gold fell under pressure. Yesterday, the highest price of gold was $1,796, and the lowest price was $1,745. It closed at $1,754, down $40. For detailed analysis and operational suggestions, please click on the following link to join the group and check with the administrator. https://t.me/mingtakchat

2021-09-16

September 16th.   Today's volatility range: Yesterday, the gold price softened and once again fell below the $1,800 mark. The US manufacturing data recorded a strong increase. The yield of the US 10-year Treasury bonds rebounded from a low level, which suppressed the fall of the gold price. Yesterday, the gold price failed to stabilize at $1,802. Re-enter the callback situation of a wave of rebound after the great adjustment on August 9th, and test the resistance and support of gold ratio of 0.236 and 0.382. It is expected that the price of gold will continue within this range until the US announces the interest rate next week. Shock, the suggested volatility is between 1785-1802 USD.   Evergrande finally confirmed that it hired two financial consultants for debt restructuring. One of the consultants, Hualian, the parent company of Hualian Nuoji (China), is a well-known brand of global debt distress and bankruptcy restructuring, and went bankrupt in 2020. Ranked first in the industry, and Hualian helped Neifang Jiazhaoye survive the bankruptcy crisis in 2015, but this time Hualian's handling of Evergrande case should be even more difficult. First, Evergrande has a huge debt, and the Group's current total debt is 1.97 trillion yuan. Rmb, the creditors involved in the code are more complicated. Second, it is more difficult to operate the interior houses than before. Chinese regulators have cracked down on the excessive borrowing habits of real estate developers and set three red lines, making financing more difficult and operating costs more. Higher. Third, the myth of buying a house to get rich in China has been disillusioned, and with the tightening of mortgage by banks, China's property market is not as good as before, and it is not easy for Evergrande to declare its cash and pay its debts.   During the public consultation on the revision of the gambling law in Macao, the market worried that the mainland's well-regulated hand would point to the gambling industry, and a large number of gambling stocks in Hong Kong fell, while the bankruptcy of Evergrande continued to ferment, and the domestic and domestic banking stocks were still under pressure, which dragged down. In the overall market, Hong Kong stocks fell repeatedly, falling by nearly 25,000 points, and the health index closed down by more than 1.84%. The European variant virus has affected the sales of famous brands, and the salary in the second quarter of the Eurozone has regressed, which is not conducive to the consumer market. Yesterday, luxury stocks. Yesterday, the three major European stock markets reported overall declines. France is the country of fashion brands, with the largest decline. The CAC index in Paris, France fell by 1.04%. Germany DAX index fell 0.68%; Britain's FTSE 100 index fell 0.25%. Last night, the United States announced the import and export price index for August, in which the import price index fell for the first time since October last year. The data showed that the upward trend of inflation in the United States had leveled off, while the US Department of Labor announced the increase of the manufacturing index of the new york Federal Reserve in September. Strong, with growth exceeding expectations by more than 90%. The data supports the risk market. The three major Wall Street indexes rose across the board, and the Dow Jones index rose by 0.68%. The S&P 500 index rose 0.85%, while the Nasdaq index got rid of the trend of falling for five consecutive days, and rose 0.82% to close. Yesterday, gold softened and once again fell below the $1,800 mark. Yesterday, the yield of US 10-year Treasury bonds rebounded from a low level, surpassing the level of more than 1.3%. Coupled with strong US economic data, gold prices fell under pressure. Yesterday, the highest gold price was $1,807. The lowest price was $1791, and it closed at $1894, down $11. For detailed analysis and operational suggestions, please CLICK the following link to join the group and check with the administrator. https://t.me/mingtakchat

2021-09-15

On September 15th.   Today's volatility range: Inflation in the United States showed signs of peaking down, which removed the pressure of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. The yield of US dollar index and 10-year treasury bonds fell, and the price of gold rose above 1800 US dollars yesterday. The price of gold is still after the major adjustment on August 9. A wave of rebound in the callback situation, and test the resistance and support of the gold ratio of 0.236 and 0.382, to stabilize the US$ 1802 before confirming the turnaround. It is expected that the gold market will continue to fluctuate today, and the suggested volatility is between 1788 and 1808 US dollars. Lai Hong Kong Yi began accepting applications at 0: 00 today, providing 2,000 places for non-Hong Kong residents in Guangdong Province and Macao every day. Starting today, it can come to Hong Kong without quarantine or injection, with 2,000 places every day, but before coming to Hong Kong. If you have never left Guangdong Province or Macau on the 14th, you should complete the test at the designated medical institution three days before you arrive in Hong Kong, and send the results of Yuekang Code or Aokang Code to Hong Kong. On the designated day after arriving in Hong Kong, the green QR code applicant, That is, on the third, fifth, ninth, twelfth, sixteenth and nineteenth days, applicants for pink QR codes will be subject to compulsory quarantine. I hope that after customs clearance, Hong Kong's economy will improve, and I also hope that the door of two-way customs clearance can be opened. China Evergrande's bankruptcy crisis continued to ferment, and the market spread that Evergrande hired financial consultants to restructure its debts, and the domestic housing stocks and Chinese-funded financial stocks were under pressure. At the same time, the new economic stocks were still under the pressure of the central authorities, which dragged down the market. Hong Kong stocks fell repeatedly, and the Hang Seng Index closed down more than 1.2%.   In Britain, there were 26,628 confirmed cases in COVID-19 in a single day, and 185 people died of illness in COVID-19 in a single day. British Prime Minister Johnson said that it is unwise to completely exclude vaccine passports, but in order to prevent the import of new variant crowns. Viruses, human detection has become very important, and the UK will announce more arrangements for human detection at a later time. When the market generally believes that inflation will continue to rise even under the epidemic in Europe, the Executive Committee of the European Central Bank. However, schnabel spoke out to escort the European Central Bank's policy, saying that inflation would not continue to be too high, and made a footnote for slowing down debt buying. The epidemic has always dragged down the economic recovery, and the three major European stock markets developed individually. The DAX index of Germany rose by 0.14%. France Paris CAC index fell 0.36%; Britain's FTSE 100 index fell 0.47%.   US stocks rose first and then fell. Inflation in the United States has shown signs of peaking down, the market's expectation of the Federal Reserve's choke has cooled down, and the three major indexes on Wall Street have opened higher. However, US President Biden's economic stimulus plan is in need of money, and investors are worried about US corporate tax. Will be raised, hit corporate profits, risk sentiment deteriorated, three major indexes fell to close, Dow Jones index fell 0.87%; The S&P 500 index fell 0.51%, while the Nasdaq index fell for five consecutive days, and then lost 0.45% to close. US Department of Labor yesterday. The core consumer price index for August was released later, and the market expected to rise by 0.3%, but the actual figure only increased by 0.1%, which was the smallest increase in the past seven months. Inflation showed signs of peaking and falling back, which removed the pressure of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. Data publication. In the afternoon, the US dollar index plunged to 92.46, and the yield of US 10-year Treasury bonds fell below 1.3%, once falling to 1.280%. Gold softened in the early period, with a minimum of $1,781. Long investors made efforts by slowing inflation data. Breaking through the $1,800 mark, the highest price rose to $1,809, and the gold price closed at $1,805 yesterday, rising by $12. For detailed analysis and operational suggestions, please CLICK the following link to join the group and check with the administrator. https://t.me/mingtakchat