Gold market analysis

2020-02-18

The absence of U.S. markets, which were closed for the U.S. President's day holiday on Monday night, had a noticeable impact on trading sentiment, with little volatility in currency markets and solid gold prices. European stock markets are generally on the up side, with the U.S. resuming trading tonight and manufacturing data expected to send volatility back to normal, with the dollar and gold still holding together. We saw gold close at a high over the weekend, but we didn't see any active buying at the start of trading yesterday. I believe it was due to the holiday, so we didn't see any immediate continuation of the gold rally. The dollar also continued to strengthen. The euro has fallen slowly to its lowest level in more than three months, but it has seen no support. The economy has been severely affected and the European Banks have also loosened monetary policy earlier, but it has not worked. Recent economic data in Europe have shown that the euro zone economy still lags behind other industrial countries. The expectation that the European central bank will cut interest rates further or issue more debt to increase market liquidity to save the economy means that the euro should maintain its downward trend last year. The decline accelerated, with many big Banks cutting their euro forecasts, the euro will soon lose 1.08 support, will hover around the 1.07 level to find support.   During the outbreak of the new coronavirus, global stock markets continued to perform well, reflecting the market's tendency to believe that the outbreak was short-lived and that tipping points could be very close. But gold's investors don't seem willing to play the same game wholeheartedly as the stock market, where a degree of caution and risk aversion still keep prices high, As soon as the market opened this morning, the gold price rose again and reached its highest level in a month. As long as the gold price remained stable above 1580 and maintained its momentum, it would soon challenge the psychological level of 1600. Although the dollar weighted index is also strong enough to challenge the 100 mark, global interest rates will continue to flow into the gold market.   With U.S. markets rebounding tonight, trading is starting to pick up, and the New York fed manufacturing index for February will be released in the evening. Early in the month, the manufacturing index showed signs of picking up. The ISM index's return to 50 led to the beginning of the dollar's rally, Also keep an eye on the 9:30 reading tonight. A reading above 5 on the New York fed index would be considered positive and would support further dollar strength, although it would not necessarily weigh too heavily on gold. Technically, the gold price has broken through the lower consolidation area, as long as it stays above 1580, it can continue to test the 1600 mark up, the outlook is still strong, the dollar and gold prices are likely to continue to rise in tandem.

2020-02-17

The dollar strengthened against gold last week, as expected, as investors shrugged off concerns about pneumonia in wuhan, and U.S. economic data was generally positive. Stimulus money flowed into asset markets such as the U.S. dollar and U.S. stocks. On the other hand, investors were also happy to hold on to gold. In a global environment of low interest rates, the cost of holding gold is fairly modest, with the medium to long-term support for gold, which is approaching the 1,600 mark again and has a chance of hitting a near seven-year high if it breaks through again. US President Donald trump has repeatedly called on the federal reserve to loosen monetary policy after the central bank released a record of last month's rate hike in the middle of a week that has seen few economic data. While the fed did not cut rates last month, the market is also looking forward to the possibility of a rate cut this year. Monday is a holiday for the President of the United States, and it is believed that the market will be less volatile during the early part of the week.   The dollar has been strong for the past week, with all three major U.S. stock indexes continuing to hit new highs on the back of recent good economic data, and the dollar in favor, with the U.S. weighted index climbing above the 99 level. The euro has fallen to a three-year low of 1.08; U.S. economic data was good, but the euro zone economy held up, and investors were even more worried that the European central bank was about to launch another round of stimulus measures to rescue the economy. Shift, the euro is still at stake, this week could further 淜 under 1.07 level, the hui weighted index will be strong to challenge 100 mark. But despite a stronger dollar, enthusiasm for gold has not waned. Gold has found support below 1550 after seeing a slight pullback in the early part of last week, with a surge of buying sending prices to their highest close of the week. Technical trends are quite consistent. In addition to the federal reserve, which will keep interest rates low this year, the market is hoping that the European central bank, the bank of England, the reserve bank of Australia and even the people's bank of China will cut interest rates to stimulate the economy or issue more debt. These expectations of market liquidity have supported the medium-term rally in gold prices by reducing the cost to gold holders, reducing the purchasing power of silver paper and highlighting the value of gold as a store of value.   Technically, after last week's first drop followed by a rise, gold prices are on the verge of breaking through and stabilizing above 1580 this week. With the momentum accumulated last week, gold prices are expected to hit the psychological level of $1600 at one blow. Investors can follow suit. While Monday is the U.S. President's day holiday, the U.S. market will be closed. For the first time, trading volume will be relatively sparse and calm. Note whether the record will release pigeons to support the gold price upward breakout.

2020-02-14

The euro against the dollar fell to their lowest level in three years Peng, concern about the eurozone growth by investors to increase the size of the put quantitative understanding of the European central bank's vision, The euro fell as low as 1.0824, its lowest level since April 2017, while gold failed another test of the 1580 mark but remained strong overall. Mostly above 1570. U.S. retail sales will be released tonight, which will be the focus of the market for the week, and the expected Numbers are on track to add to recent highs for the dollar on valentine's day.   The euro has fallen sharply this week and is the weakest of the major currencies. Industrial output in the latest boom has fallen by the most in nearly four years. The eurozone economy is stagnant, The ECB is likely to remain in loose monetary policy mode, with most international Banks cutting their outlook for the euro this year. The bank of Denmark also took a dim view of the euro's outlook, predicting it would remain around the 1.07 level for the rest of the year after falling to 1.07. The weak economic recovery in the euro area, combined with the impact of the new coronavirus, has added to the uncertainty. The European central bank may even ease monetary policy further, even though interest rates are already very low. But debt issuance could also be expanded further to counter downside risks.   Gold market, and the dollar synchronously strong. Gold continued to benefit from a global environment of low interest rates, despite strong U.S. economic data, The market wasn't worried about an early fed rate cut, but in mid-week Powell said the fed would act decisively if there were risks to the economy. The fed is unlikely to raise interest rates this year. It will maintain a looser monetary policy. This, coupled with the current market expectation of more liquidity in the European region, will further stimulate the gold market. Gold prices held above 1570 yesterday, although the upward volatility is not big, failed to break through the 1580 barrier, but the afternoon there is still a chance to break through the impact of 1600 level, lower branch will continue to move up the ladder, Buy back. At 9:30 p.m. tonight, U.S. retail sales will be the focus of the week and the expected Numbers are not weak, which could provide further support for the dollar, but gold's rebound could be short-lived, with a chance to fall back before stabilizing for the better.

2020-02-13

Yesterday, the us dollar rose in tandem with gold, us stocks continued to hit new highs, supporting the performance of us dollar assets, the weighted us exchange rate rose to the 99 mark, But the market is still in favor of gold, money continues to pour into the gold market, prices continue to improve this morning, again testing the 1580 resistance. No major U.S. economic data were released at the start of the week, Following last week's upbeat economic data, both the U.S. dollar and U.S. stocks continued to receive support, with U.S. stocks hitting new highs and U.S. dollar prices also gaining traction as markets receded from concerns about the new coronavirus. The market is more concerned about when the U.S. stock market rally will peak. With the dow Jones industrial average approaching 30,000 and the three major indexes hitting record highs, the market is in a buoyant mood.   In the early days, the European currency has been weak. After the euro lost the 1.1 level, it lost the momentum to rebound. The pound also moved lower than 1.3. As low as $1,562. In the us city, federal reserve chairman colin Powell delivered a speech one by one, saying that the fed would implement a series of quantitative easing measures in the face of the next economic downturn, These include buying lots of government bonds to lower interest rates; And communicate to the market constantly, make interest rate policy and forward guidance of the bureau clearer. Powell stressed, The fed's QE will be aggressive if necessary. The comments sparked the performance of U.S. stocks and gold, gold prices saw a low rebound. As early as this morning in the Eurasian market, gold prices continue to steady, maintain the challenge of the 1580 barrier resistance momentum. Technically, the early week of the gold price back has seen buying in the low to continue, below still should buy should not sell, After two days of consolidation, it depends on whether gold can break through the 1580 mark, and if it can rise, it can extend the upside. Otherwise, gold's consolidation range will remain unchanged, but lower support will gradually increase.   The U.S. releases the consumer price index and weekly jobless claims tonight. The CPI data is more important, but last week saw a good week for new claims for unemployment assistance that led to a rally in the dollar, We can also watch tonight to see if it will hit another low and help the dollar.

2020-02-12

The market continued the range-bound trend at the beginning of the week, with the dollar generally strong and gold prices unable to break out, but also duly recovered, as yesterday's analysis pointed out, gold prices need time to consolidate, Build up momentum, so back to low can also be bought again. After the U.S. stock market reached its high last night, although the momentum has not changed, but also began to gather momentum, The market needs more news to guide it. There are still no major economic data out tonight, and federal reserve chairman colin Powell says monetary policy is appropriate, With the speech continuing tonight, markets will be watching to see if Powell gives further hints about the fed's future interest rate orientation.   The President took to social media last night to congratulate the stock market on its new high, but later stocks fell slightly as trump blamed Powell. Mr Trump accused the fed of having too high interest rates and too strong a dollar to support exports. He had already blamed America's GDP for reaching 4% if it were not for the fed, The dow is up 10,000 points. Powell, testifying before the senate financial services committee on the semiannual monetary policy report, said, Barring a major change in the economy, monetary policy remains appropriate and authorities are concerned about the development of a new outbreak of pneumonia that could hit the Chinese economy and spread globally. He described the pace of activity growth in the us as moderate, with a further strengthening of the job market, and said the economy appeared able to withstand the global risks that had intensified since last summer.   A good U.S. economic tone, coupled with a strong U.S. dollar on Wall Street, also deprived gold of further momentum. There was a break in the surf. Gold failed to stabilise above 1570 and retreated further after Powell's testimony to as low as 1562, although there was no follow-up pressure below, The low bounced back quickly and has since mostly stayed above 1565. Technically, gold has maintained its medium-term rally after a sharp early rebound, But even if the market continues to run out of momentum, gold prices will have to consolidate further ahead of time, with buying still supporting gold prices at the 1560 level,   But above cannot break 1580 at the same time cannot extend to rise the space, the gold price opportunity lies in this level range to fall. Fed chairman colin Powell continues his speech tonight, Believe that with the mouth confession 脗 last night will quite consistent, but also need to pay attention to, he will be no future interest rate to bring more inspiration, as the market is lack of important economic data, Therefore, the content of the speech is more likely to become a market guide.

2020-02-11

There was not much economic news to lead the market yesterday, with currency and gold markets relatively quiet, but the three major U.S. stock indexes broke high as fears of pneumonia in wuhan receded. The dollar and gold were both expected to remain strong. Fed governors' upbeat outlook for the us economy supports asset markets. Fed governor Susan bowman said current interest rate policy should help the economy expand. She expects the U.S. economy to continue growing at a moderate pace, with unemployment at a half-century low, Will remain low, inflation will gradually rise to the 2 per cent policy target, and the overall us economic environment is very positive, which should provide broad support to the regional economy.   Daley, also President of the San Francisco fed, said China's economy would slow for two quarters because of the new coronavirus, but the impact on the U.S. economy would be limited. She said the outbreak had not affected confidence in the economy and she would be watching the situation closely. In the current economic environment, it was better to accept that inflation was well above the 2 per cent target than slightly below the target. While low unemployment has not pushed up inflation as much as expected, central Banks have been able to get the economy moving faster than expected and more people into jobs. But she thinks there are limits to monetary policy, Fiscal policy needs to play a role in mitigating economic shocks, and investing in infrastructure, research and development, and education can increase economic productivity in the long run. Officials and governors are optimistic about the economy, Support for the U.S. from falling to rising, the dollar also held steady, but the gold market was relatively stronger.   According to global gold ETFF holdings, gold purchases by exchanges have seen inflows for 12 consecutive trading days. Gold ETF holdings increased by 112,000 ounces as of Thursday, So far this year, net inflows have reached 1.65 million ounces. Despite the favorable U.S. economic data and support for the dollar and U.S. stocks, investors are still happy to hold gold on a macro basis. This is exactly what I've been saying, that the state of low global interest rates will eventually support a breakout in gold prices, which have been climbing since the market opened yesterday, but with little momentum, In the early hours of the morning, gold started to recover from the 1576 level. Although gold continued to rise in the medium to long term, it would also be limited in the short term by the strong U.S. dollar and U.S. stocks. The high is not to be reached unless it stabilizes above 1,580, extending the upside, and the U.S. is also short of important economic data tonight, However, a number of officials in Europe and the United States have made speeches that could have implications for global interest rate policy.

2020-02-10

上週美元接連得到攀升動力，美匯加權指數更重上98上方，迫近四個月高位，但美元上升，並沒有為金價持續帶來壓力， 金價回跌至1550下方後，守穩1546支持，受技術買盤支持回升，金價與美元雙雙靠穩的走勢有望於本週延續。 美元此番攀升，有實質經濟數據支持，加強了市場對美國經濟復甦的信心；上週初時間，已見投資者開始淡化武漢肺炎對金融市場衝擊的優慮， 有大行指出，疫情對經濟影響僅屬短暫，將無阻美國經濟復甦，而週一見美國公佈的ISM製造業指數重上50.9， 處於盛衰分界線的50上方，美元的升勢亦展開序幕。   緊接理想製造業數據，其後的非製造業及ADP就業增長亦較預期理想，歐幣週中時間已呈弱勢，歐元及英鎊分別失守1.1及1.3關口。 金價亦於週初時段刷新週內低位，低見1547美元。而週末的勞工市場為全週市場重點，美國公佈的1月失業率雖稍微回升至3.6%， 但1月份非農業新增職位高報22.5萬人，遠較預期的16萬及前值的14.7萬理想，歐幣再下挫週內低位收市，美元維持強勢。 但貴金屬市場則有技術買盤支持，金價跌至1550下方，投資者均願意在低位建立頭寸，限制了金價的跌幅，儘管美元上升，但無阻資金追捧金市。   月頭多間央行雖維持息口不變，但大部份均放鴿，環球低息市場仍會維持一段較長時間，降低了持金者的成本，中長線滋助金價上升的因素仍未改變， 市場焦點短期從疫症的陰霾中轉移，但除非見疫情明確受控，否則武漢肺炎仍是市場的不安因素，隨時會令市場出現逆轉，國內自春節放假後， 本週仍處於防疫狀態，外省勞工仍未獲上班準許，又或出省需隔離14日，始能重回崗位，勢必影響國內首季經濟表現，並拖累全球經濟復甦。   技術上，金價雖然低位有買盤支持，但美元的強勢短期亦會困擾金價上漲動能。上週先挫後揚的走勢雖然擺脫了弱勢， 上方要再強行突破亦必需更多好消息配合，在1580前雖抱有戒心，下方支持逐級推高，在1560下方可繼續吸納，中線只要守穩1546支持， 金價後市仍將逐步攀升，本週可望於美元雙方齊齊靠穩，第一季仍有望維持衝擊1600關口的可能。 本週初段，市場欠缺重要消息引領，需週末的零售額為全週市場重點，週初時間，可依據技術位置先行炒上落。

2020-02-07

昨日美元及黃金雙雙走強，美元升至近四個月高位，歐幣進一步下挫低位，但金價則如期低位整固後反彈， 今晨見亞太區市場交投稍為縮減，投資者傾向等待今晚美國勞工市場數據，預期當中非農數據不弱， 但金價若能守穩技術支持，可望靠穩後上揚。   早段時間，金價已開始靠穩反彈。守穩1550美元後，金價歐亞市時段，已重上1560上方並開始企穩， 但美元走勢亦見上揚。美元指數刷新去年10115日以來高點98.57，近期美國經濟數據均表現不俗， 而且市場對武漢肺炎中的憂慮消退，美股三大指數全面上漲。晚間時份見美國公佈的一週首次申領失業援助人數報20.2萬， 較預期的21.5萬及前值21.6萬人次理想外，亦是近11個月新低，儘管數據重要性不足， 但亦帶動市場對今晚美國勞工市數據的憧憬，美元強勢攀升。英鎊下挫至1.2920支持，歐元亦失守1.10關口。   但金價無視美元強勢，投資者仍樂意低位吸納黃金頭寸，環球低息環境將支持金價長遠方向發展。 技術上，金價1546支持位置仍然有效，但自低位反彈而逾廿美元，上漲動力會開始收縮， 而預期勞工市場數據不弱下，金價難以即市作出突破，上方必需有效突破並企穩1570才能延伸上漲空間。 基本面上，需留意今晚非農數據會否削弱市場對美聯儲減息的預期，若勞工市場仍然暢旺， 加上近期美國理想的經濟數據支持，美聯儲年底減息預期將進一步降溫，甚至年底減息一次的機會消失， 美元可望進一步上揚，並打壓金價從回週內低點。需小心注意今晚非農表現，若數據開出有25萬人次增長， 亦屬非常理想數字，相反低於10萬，則需小心美元會反高潮回跌。

2020-01-30

昨日市況走勢恰如預期，美聯儲亦維持息口不變，金價回吐一步到位後，即時爬升，環球低息環境有望持續， 支持金價中長線升勢。金價於早段時間承接前晚的跌勢，最低回至1563美元，但如早前分析所言，此番回吐， 主要是因應股市反彈所帶動，但股市欠缺利好消息推動，反彈走勢難以持久，金價回吐反而造就入市良機。 金價早段時間見過1563後，便持續受買盤支持回升，很快又重新企穩於1570上方，等待美聯儲議息結果的公佈。   達入美國市，整體市況較為平穩，香港凌晨時份，美聯儲結束一連兩日的議息會議，並宣佈維持息口不變。   美聯儲宣佈維持聯邦基金利率於1.50%至1.75%不變，符合市場預期，並連續兩次會議，均是全體委員一致維持息口不變， 是繼上年7月、9月、及10月降息以後，再次維持息口不變，會後聲明措詞稍作改變，較12月出現兩項變化， 對家庭支出的判斷由"強勁"調整為"溫和"，另外，聲明強調當前貨幣政策的立場是出於"回到"2%的通脹目標， 在早前的原文僅強調是"接近"2%的通脹目標，顯示出聯儲局對通脹目標表示出不滿。   市場解讀是次會議仍然偏鴿，息口將更長時間維持於低水平，加上1月開始換屆，來屆新委員中，票委更傾向於鴿派， 金價因此晚上得到爬升動力，於深夜時份再衝擊1580關口。延至今晨，金價仍然靠穩於1570上方， 加上亞太區股市仍普遍受壓，武漢疫情亦引起美聯儲主席鮑威爾的擔心，他指出擔心疫情會拖垮全球經濟活動，年底仍保持減息機會。   今日英倫銀行亦會公佈議息結果，儘管市場普遍預期英倫銀行將維持息口不變， 不過英倫銀行將來息口變化幾乎肯定以減息為主，對英鎊仍會帶來壓力，金價亦有望從中得到支持， 晚間時份，美國將公佈一週首次申領失業援助人數及美國第4季PCE物價指數，數據對即市也會產生一定波動，可以留意當中變化。

2020-01-29

昨日歐美股市全線反彈，油升金跌，調整了週一的市況，但整體大市基調沒變，武漢肺炎發展仍會短期困擾金融市場表現， 美聯儲已展開一連兩天的議息會議，今晚香港凌晨時間將作公佈，預期息口不會變動，但會後聲明具有啟示作用，需要關注。   歐洲三大股指加上美股三大指數昨日出現技術性反彈，打壓金價下滑；早段時間，仍見金價高位靠穩， 但只限維持於1576上方，卻未能企穩於1580上方，達入美國市後，金價開始出現較大跌幅。美國公佈的經濟數據支持了美元發展，   1月消費信心指數從12月的128.2回升至131.6，另外，12月份耐用品訂單亦增至2.4%， 因軍用物資採購增加抵消了商業投資減少的影響，較預期樂觀的數據支持了美元發展。   市場經過調整後，將注視新一輪消息引導方向。美聯儲正展開一連兩天的議息會議，市場普遍共識美聯儲將維持息口不變， 會後聲明的措詞亦不會有太大改變，不過近期的新型冠狀疫情及中東局勢等地緣政治緊張，美聯儲可能會作出適時評論， 或會有任何放鴿表示，左右市場對年底息口的期望。   技術上，金價回吐已一步到位，今晨回吐至1563美元，從三週高位回落，跌幅已逾廿美元， 可適量買入，下方進一步支持位於250小時平均約1560美元，長線上，金價在這兩週多間央行放鴿情況下， 可望保持衝擊1600關口的誘因，但走勢較為反覆，受多項消息引導，宜回位再行買入。

2020-01-28

全球戒炎準備中，擔心新型冠狀病毒擴散，環球股市繼續有得震無得訓，美股三大指數大幅下挫， 道指逾450點，維指及標普均跌超過1.5%，市場避險情緒高漲，資金湧入貴金屬市場， 金價昨日跳空上漲逾1%，刷出近期新高，再度直迫1600關口。   昨日甫開市便見金價受支持跳空上漲，儘管亞洲市場普遍仍因農歷假期而未有開市，不過投資者未敢怠慢， 在亞太區市場已開始見買盤湧現。金價多返回吐，但亦收穩1575上方，僅回補跳空位置一半空間，大部份時間徘徊於1580水平。 日圓亦成為資金避難所，重上108水平，短期由於疫情未見受控或有好消息出籠，因此，市場緊張情緒仍將繼續， 黃金及日圓短期易升難跌，仍會繼續成為投資者的資金避難所所追捧。   今晚美國將公佈耐用品訂單，上次受波音訂單減少影響，大跌逾2%，今晚數據若再大幅下滑，恐對美元帶來即市壓力。 但重點是明晚凌晨公佈的美聯儲議息會議；今次議息會議為2020首次會議，雖然息口變化機會不大，但今年首次議息亦有前瞻作用。 市場將關注美聯儲在減少購買債券的規模會否縮少，若美聯儲對此有所暗示，恐對美股帶來進一步壓力， 又或美聯儲主席鮑威爾再度放鴿，則會對美元帶來傷害。   技術上，金價跳空上漲，並保持了良好型態，後市走勢仍然理想，金價於1576多番受買盤支持承托，此水平可開始吸納，後市將逐步挑戰1600關口。

2020-01-27

上週三大央行先後議息，均維持息口不變，但口風繼續放鴿，加上武漢疫情未受控， 市場擔心經濟前景受到拖累，支持貴金屬市場發展，金價今晨升超過十美元，後市走勢仍然相當樂觀。 展週本週，美聯儲及英倫銀行亦會舉行議息會議，預期息口仍將維持不變， 但可能維持寛鬆貨幣政策，會後聲明等內容仍需注意。   上週加拿大、日本及歐洲央行相繼續議息，息口均維持不變，但三大央行均對經濟前景表示不明朗， 並將繼續維持寛鬆貨幣政策，加拿大亦刪除了維持息口等字眼，意味未來息口取向將傾向於減息，對加元將帶來中期性傷害。   另一方面，武漢疫情未見受控，自上週發現疫情擴散至美國及香港等環球金融中心， 投資者開始意識疫情可能爆發並阻礙全球經濟增長。單是內地全病例確個案已逾2700宗，導致80人死亡， 為防控疫情，內地農歷新年假期延長至2月2日，今晨日經指數低開400點，並繼續走軟， 投資者憂慮情緒升溫，美股道指期貨亦受壓，美股三大指數期貨跌幅均逾1%，油價則被拋售， 而市場避險意識趨升，金價及日圓受追捧，金價今晨一度高見1588美元。   展望本週，市場避險意識將維持，金價有望於高水平發展，而今週美聯儲及英倫銀行的議息會議亦需留意， 儘管兩大央行較大機會維持息口不變，但若其會後聲明又再放鴿，將會對英鎊及美元均帶來傷害， 金價則有望在低息環境支持下靠穩向上。金價適合繼續追捧，若美股借疫情擴大回吐，資金將會持續流入貴金屬市場避險。

2020-01-24

本週三大央行先後議息，昨晚輪到最受市場關注的歐洲央行公佈議息結果，雖均維持息口不變， 但亦同時放鴿，支持了貴金屬市場發展，美元及黃金均見靠穩發展。   歐洲央行預期，利率將會繼續維持當前水平甚至低低，直至通脹前景穩固轉向低於但接近2%的目標水平， 並將在加息前不久才會停止購債，意味放寛貨幣政策短期內不變；   而議息會議的焦點是歐洲央行宣佈對貨幣政策的戰略評估，這是自2003年以來首次。這次評估符合市場預期， 於12月決議上，行長拉加德表示央行將於一月進行政策評估，儘管評估框架尚未達成共識， 但政策評估將包括不平等現象加劇的問題和氣候變化挑戰性問題。   會後發佈會中，行長拉加德重申歐洲央行的聲明內容，並指高度寛鬆貨幣政策仍會維持一段時間， 如有需要歐洲央行將調整所有可行工具，不過她亦表示對低率感到擔憂，戰略評估方面， 她透霝戰略評估將包括物價穩定的制定、貨幣政策工具、經濟和貨幣分析以及溝通實戰， 但歐央行不會提前排除或者預計戰略評估的結果。會後，歐元反彈乏力，亦有大行預計， 歐洲央行將從三月開始降息三次，每次降息10基點，歐元中短期走勢仍不樂觀。   貴金屬市場方面，則可受惠於環球低息的貨幣政策，昨日一度上衝至1567位置， 不過高位承接力不足，因此又再回落；金價於1568形成了雙頂型態，技術上必需突破才能再延伸上升空間， 但以美元現時強勢仍未對金價帶來太大傷害，相信再突破機會較高，短線下方，只要繼續守穩1557及1553支持， 則可繼續向上，回吐可逢低吸維。  

2020-01-23

昨日市場各自發展，美元小幅下滑，歐幣向好，加元及油價大幅向下，而金價則持穩，市況各自發展不一， 展望今晚歐元區將公佈利率決議，預期雖然息口不變，不過關注其取態會否繼續放鴿，從而支持了金市的發展。   昨晚加拿大議息後放鴿，加元急速回落近百點，並創自12月26日以來的低位。儘管加拿大央行議息後維息口不變， 但改變其聲明基調，在議息聲明中剔除了有關目前利率水平恰當的語句，加拿大央行長更表示， 如果加國經濟增長近期的放緩持續，將會開始下調利率，加元前景相當不明朗，將逐步挑戰1.33。   另一方面，英倫銀行下週的減息預期反而下降，受惠英國CBI商業前景指數樂觀，加上脫歐協議順利通過議會， 英鎊急升，市場對英倫銀行下週減息的憧憬稍為降溫，歐元兌英鎊錄得近期最大跌幅，低見0.8424的月內低位，匯市分歧發展。   商品市場方面，亦出現不一走勢。油價大幅下滑，擔憂武漢疫情擴散，加上美國香港等全球金融中心出現首宗確診過案， 市場擔心疫情未能受控，將會打擊經濟表現，並因此抑制了能源需求，油價因此而受壓，加上市場供應過剩， 美國公佈的上週API原油庫存大增，令油價最多跌4%，走勢相當驚人。不過金價則影響較輕微，受惠於環球低息環境， 各大央行均放鴿救經濟，壓抑了金價的跌勢，金價回軟至1550後便見支持，但1560上方亦有一定拋售壓力出現。   今晚歐洲央行將公佈議息會議，為全週重點，預期息口將不變，但會否維持鴿派基調，將影響市況表現。 歐元上年弱勢主要是歐洲央行較其他七大工業國提前放水，但放水在未見成效前，相信歐元區仍會繼續寛鬆貨幣政策， 歐元弱勢仍將維持，亦支持了商品市場的發展。金價亦可望從中得到支持，其中長期升勢可望繼續， 但由於早前先升後回走勢在技術上破壞了整固型態，金價宜回低才作吸納。

2020-01-22

湖北武漢肺炎爆發後，更多擴散消息，除擴散全國多國省市外，更於美國華盛頓出現首宗病例， 市場擔心疫情擴散，震動股市，金價亦急升急跌，市況變化甚大。   金價早段突破1560美元， 亞洲早市便開始向上，衝至1568美元開始出現阻力，於1566上方掙持一段後，晚市幾乎回吐整日漲幅， 金價最低跌至1546美元，跌勢甚急，鈀金亦失守2400美元關口，貴金屬市場受到一輪拋售，未能保持日內升勢。   中國黃金協會周二公佈，去年國內黃金消費量減少12.91%至1002.78噸，主要受制於經濟下行壓力及金價於下半年上漲， 去年國內黃金產量亦減少5.21%至380.23噸；儘管民間需求未見增多，不過受惠於官方需求，多間大行對未來金市仍保持樂觀， 加上美國實際利率最近已降至負數，創2012年底以來低位，降低持有黃金等不能生息的成本， 金價中長線仍受機構投資者及官方儲備所青睞。   美國總統特朗普亦再度炮轟美聯儲的利率政策， 要求美聯儲再度降息支持經濟，支持了回吐中的金價在低位反彈。技術上，黃金昨日的先升後挫走勢破壞了金價整固儲力型態， 即市上升動力仍欠奉，有可能進一步下探下方支持位置。   今晚美國將公佈成屋銷售，經濟數據影響不大，反而需留意肺炎疫情發展，市場一段恐慌過後， 暫時相信疫情會較03年沙士傷害性較低，但若有失控情況，則可能對金融市場帶來進一步傷害。

2020-01-21

昨日為美國馬丁路德金假期，欠缺美國市場，市況交投較為淡靜，美元悄悄回穩， 歐幣回跌，等待本週三大央行議息。美元昨日交投淡靜中走強，主要是延續上週五的上升走勢， 受惠12月房屋動工升至13年高位，加上零售銷售上升，及製造業活動指數反彈至8個月高位， 美國經濟表現比歐洲區強，令歐幣較美元出現貶值。   市場對英國減息預期繼續升溫，英鎊再度失守1.3關口。 英國一直較其他歐洲國家延遲放水，但隨著月底脫歐塵埃落定，市場又開始擔心英國經濟前景風險， 加上經濟確實在放緩，英倫銀行理事亦紛紛放風，更有理事直指月底投票將投票支持減息， 英鎊備受壓力，於1.3關口附近徘徊，短線仍處弱勢。金市方面，儘管美元走強，但今晨金價企穩於1560上方， 並持續上揚，技術上，又再突破，可望延伸新一輪升勢。   今晚美國無重要經濟數據公佈，但下午歐洲均有重要經濟數據公佈，將對匯市帶來影響。 英國將公佈失業率、德國及歐元區將公佈ZEW經濟景氣指數，數據對即市將有反應。 而金市由於已作突破，只要繼續企穩於1560上方，將又再重組升勢，唯升勢略帶超買，需小心急回風險。

2020-01-20

黃金上週走勢驚險，市場淡化過中東緊張局勢下，中美簽署首階段貿易協議，利好氣氛刺激股市大旺， 美股三大指數持續創新高，資金流出避險市場，金價受到打壓，一度回跌至兩星期低位，但下方有買盤支反彈， 全週計，金價幾乎收復整週失地，美國的經濟數據多不及預期亦對金價帶來了支持作用。 展望本週，週一為馬丁路德金假期，欠缺美國市場，交投會較為淡靜，而週末開始為中國農歷新年假期， 不過市場會繼續開放，可作交易，週內亦有三大央行議息會議，包括歐洲央行、加拿大央行和日本央行， 預期息口將維持不變，不過歐洲央行會否進一步放寛貨幣政策，將是市場關注重點，有可能對美元及匯市帶來影響。   自前週特朗普呼籲伊朗用和平手法處理兩國間的軍事衝突後， 市場已不再擔憂戰事爆發及能源或核戰危機，上週早段便見貴金屬市場受到大量沽盤打壓， 加上中美迎來首階段貿易協議，於簽署日前，金價無力反彈，最低跌至1536美元，早段已跌逾廿美元， 若計及年頭起的跌幅，更達八十美元之巨，跌勢可謂相當嚇人，不過累積跌幅已多，加上已幾乎完全回吐了中東衝突局勢而起的漲幅， 因此在此水平亦見開始有買盤支持。果然在週三晚見貿易協議簽妥後，金價便開始反彈，加上早前美國公佈的CPI及PPI均較預期遜色， 美聯儲公佈的褐皮書亦顯示美國短期加息無望，環球低息環境，有助金價得到中長線有利發展空間，金價週內先跌後回穩，全週幾乎追回所有失地。   技術上，金價在早兩星期急升急跌後，波幅將會收窄，如筆者早前預期，較大機會會先行整固。   配合基本面上，市場亦欠缺重要消息引導指引，雖然本週有多間央行議息，但相信各央行將維持其19年一貫政策， 三大央行將維持息口不變，唯獨歐洲央行需留意一下其措辭聲明，新任歐洲央行行長拉加德會否上任後，有甚麼息口政策改變， 可能會為歐洲央行未來的寛鬆貨幣政策帶來更多啟示；另外，市場亦會留意美國總統特朗普的彈劾程序， 由於已上交予眾議院，彈劾程序已正式展開，不過眾議院一直是由共和黨所控制，通過機會可謂相當輕微， 反而，若議案被否決後，可望掃除了特朗普競選連任的阻礙，反而對大市有提作用，不過若彈劾審議過程中， 若有新通烏門消息被揭發，亦可能會打擊市場表現。   金價在迎接鼠年前，相信仍只望整固徘徊，波動收窄，短線內適合高沽低買， 1560上方需保持驚剔，不要輕易高追，待整固多一段後，方能有力再向上突破。

2020-01-17

市場消化了中美簽署首階段協議，金價昨日早段一度脫離低位，反彈至1558美元， 但無力再上衝，晚市回跌近十美元，區間內盤整，短炒獲利甚豐。 貿易協議塵埃落定，金價借勢反彈，但升勢難以持久， 在早輪急升急跌後，金價勢必進行盤整，始能積聚動力再上衝， 因此見金價無意挑戰1560關口，下方回落亦未持續沽壓，區間交易，非常適合短線炒作。   美股三大指數繼續創新高，標普500指數首次升上3300點。 道指漲超過260點，谷歌母公司ALPHABET市值首次突破一萬億美元，成為蘋果、亞馬遜及微軟後第四家突破萬億美元的巨企， 利好大市氣氛，資金流出避險市場，打壓了金價的走勢； 另一方面，美國參議院正式接收了針對總統特朗普的彈劾條款，彈劾審判程序將正式展開， 但由於共和黨已控制參議院大多數議席，通過彈劾議案極難成功， 正式遞交至參議院反而讓市場明朗化，投資者不用擔心會左右美國今年大選選情，美元又見承托。   今晚美國有多項經濟數據公佈，但重要性不足， 較重要的為密芝根大學消費者信心指數，預期數字亦有不錯表現，對美元即市會帶點支持。 但不會左右貴金屬市場的盤整表現，金價反彈近1560水平仍可以短線沽空， 但中長線上，金價再回落則可逢低吸納，等待盤整完畢後，重新再向好。

2020-01-16

中美貿易戰磨擦近兩年，昨日終迎來簽妥首階段貿易協議，協議內容與市場預期相若，未有太大驚喜， 好消息出爐嚗光後，金價反而借勢反彈，不過升勢相信難以維持，仍需更多時間整固走勢。   美國總統特朗普於周四凌晨，在華盛頓白宮與中國國務院副總理劉鶴簽署首階段貿易協議。 特朗普形容中美達成歷史性協議，有利美國農民，並稱將會訪華，指國家主席習近平是他的好朋友， 協議內容，中方承諾將於未來兩年會購買總值2000億美元的美國貨物； 受惠簽署協議，美國股市仍繼續向好，三大指數紛紛創高，不過升幅不足1%。 反而美國經濟數據似乎跟不上美股的表現。   美國去年12月扣險食品和能源的核心PPI按年升1.1%，增幅低於預期之1.3%，亦是自16年以來最低， 增加了市場對美聯儲今年仍將減息的期望，及後美國公佈的褐皮書，被視為美聯儲息口去向的重要參考， 內容指美國經濟溫和增長，未有停止寛鬆貨幣政策的跡象， 金價有望繼續受惠於環球放水所支持，因此晚市繼續靠穩，持穩於1555上方徘徊。   金價雖然借勢反彈，但整固時間不足，所以大幅突破向上的空間亦有限。 技術上，金價在這月大升大跌後，將會收窄波幅，並作出整固， 低位反彈後，亦可於近1560位置沽空，在整固多一輪後，金價方能獲足夠動力突破。 中長線上，美國總統特朗普繼續向美聯儲施壓，聲稱後悔任命鮑威爾為美聯儲主席， 並大談負利率對經濟的好處，相信中線利好商品市場因素不變。   今晚美國有多項經濟數據公佈，當中零售額為較重要數字，預期有輕微增長，或會對金價帶來即市壓力， 不過金價短期難作突破，下方仍有買盤支持靠穩，上落空間收窄下，可適度作短炒買賣，美元短期亦可望繼續靠穩，限制了金價的升勢。  

2020-01-15

在中美簽署首階段貿易協議前，繼續有利好消息支持市況， 美國自八月起列中國為匯率操控國後，昨日取消此身份，人民幣穩步上漲， 而市場利好氣氛下，資金亦再流出貴金屬市場，金價一度跌至近兩週低位。 上年八月起，美國將中國列為匯率操控國，是近25年來首次； 當被列為匯率操控國時，美國有權於世貿組織上投訢中國的匯率政策，並從而作出訟裁；不過自列有匯率操控國後，未見有關情況發生， 而昨日美國財政部公佈了關於美國主要貿易伙伴宏觀經濟和外匯政策的半年報告中，終取消了對中國匯率操控國的確認，不過中國仍被列入觀察名單。   市場關注的並非中國會否被制裁，而是中美經貿關係的改善。 中國發言人回認剔出操控國時表示中國本身一直就沒有操控匯率，而IMF早前亦曾表示過人民幣匯率沒有被過份高估或低估， 市場不太擔心中國被制裁引伸的經貿問題會否發生，但隨著中美首階段協議在即，美國此舉亦可謂釋出善意， 市場憧憬首階段協議後，第二階段協議亦會快速展開，因此支持了大市氣氛， 資金流出避險市場，金價昨日早段已低見1535，期後再靠穩反彈。   市場焦點已從中東緊張局勢中走出來，本週較重視的是今日起的中方訪美團簽定中美貿易協議。 由於消息正面，相信短期對貴金屬仍有一定壓力，不過昨日於低位1535開始現支持，可見回吐至近0.618的空間已有買盤承托， 加上昨晚美國公佈的美國核心CPI略遜於預期，市場相信美聯儲將來的行動繼續放鴿，亦限制了金價的回吐空間。 其他國家，包括英國近日亦有放鴿口風，英鎊受累，一度失守1.30水平； 環球經濟增長放緩，及寛鬆貨幣政策不變，將繼續支持金價中期升勢發展。   繼CPI後，今晚美國將公佈PPI生產物價指數，亦是衡量美國物價水平的重要指標， 若又再顯示美國通脹放緩，將會退卻鷹派的加息念頭，對美元會帶來損害。 另外，紐約聯儲局製造業指數亦會有即時影響，製造業持續萎縮，相信1月份數字仍未見好轉，金價有望開始靠穩。 技術上，金價的回吐及美元的升浪，有初步到位跡象，但黃金昨日起反彈已近二十美元，亦並非高追的理想價位， 相信在一輪急跌後，金價低位找到支持，會先行整固，逐步靠穩，可於低位再重新吸納，等待整固後下一浪突破。