Gold market analysis

2020-02-27

After falling to $1,624 in the morning, European and Asian markets rebounded at a high speed to $1,654, hoping that US President Donald trump would propose measures to rescue the market. Bullish expectations in the middle of the European market helped push gold back to soft and low and back to $1,624, but selling pressure failed to push gold any further, forming a double-bottom. Back to the top; In a speech this morning, trump again expressed his dissatisfaction with the fed's interest rate and the impact of the outbreak on economic growth, raising the possibility that global could further cut interest rates or bail out the market. Capital will continue to flow into the precious metals market. Yesterday's moves were volatile, but the tone was broadly the same, with continued fears about the outbreak and hopes that the federal reserve would cut interest rates sooner rather than later.   Janet yellen, the former chair of the federal reserve, told an audience of the us economy and the 2020 election that the new coronary pneumonia had spread widely in Europe in the past week and she expected it to have a profound impact in Europe, It could tip the U.S. economy into recession, but she said the outlook for the U.S. economy was good, so the outbreak was unlikely to have a very serious impact on the country. She added that markets are starting to expect a lot of support from the fed, But with the exception of the federal reserve, interest rates in most developed countries are already low, and in America they are only slightly higher than elsewhere. Some expect gold to hit $1,800 in the next three months.   After a sharp rebound last night, the U.S. stock market was sluggish. After a sharp rise of 461 points, it still had to give up 123 points. Looking forward to trump will act to rescue the market, the us market has seen a substantial early build, But no action has been taken. The vice President of the fed also said it was too early to assess the risk to the economy. Data on U.S. economic activity this week, such as weekly jobless claims and existing home sales, will not be important enough tonight. Can be adjusted, waiting for the opportunity to absorb.

2020-02-26

After falling more than 1,000 points on Monday, U.S. stocks fell 800 points last night, dropping 5.9 percent over the next two days, the biggest two-day cumulative point loss on record. But the dollar also fell in tandem with the gold market, which failed to regain track after a one-day turn on Monday and a series of rallies yesterday. During the U.S. market's closing session, the dollar again tried the all-day low, dropping nearly $20 in 10 minutes. Early in the morning session as low as $1625, then rebound, the overall tone of gold is not out of the adjustment trend, the high has fallen some distance, selling pressure will slowly reduce, re-low, can start to absorb the low, is expected to start looking for bottom stability.   Following the previous night's stock market plunge, the European and Asian markets also saw a very bad atmosphere of siege yesterday morning, in addition to Japan, South Korea and Italy have been worried about a sense of community, the market also worried about the outbreak of the Middle East, the us secretary of state even admitted, In the Middle East, there are cases of concealment epidemic, investors worry about the risk of economic recession, the stock market fell across the board; Despite safe-haven demand, gold's multiple rallies have failed to regain track. After hitting a seven-year high on Monday, Profit unwinding plate has hit the gold market decline, the European market rebound to $1,658 again see pressure, although the expansion of volatility, but the trend is only limited to step by step.   On Wall Street, gold has been unable to regain its session high, with weak U.S. manufacturing data and consumer confidence data leading to further losses on Wall Street in the afternoon. In addition to because the gold price has been up for a while, the fund by the impact of the U.S. stock market crash, the need for capital withdrawal market to cover short positions, so cut meat from the gold mayor warehouse, fund flow back to the stock market, so see the stock market and gold market yesterday appeared under the same time now. Market volatility will begin to narrow after the week's severe market volatility. Gold will not immediately out of the adjustment pattern, the upper part of the more difficult to immediately return to the 1650 above, close to the position can be short term, However, the low level of 1625 in the early hours of this morning is also very attractive in the medium to long term. As long as financial markets start to stabilize, funds will continue to absorb gold. Markets are also starting to price in the fed's early rate cut to June on hopes that it will support gold prices in the medium to long run until the correction is complete, allowing gold to be reabsorbed in the middle.

2020-02-25

Global stock markets tumbled on Monday as global risk sentiment rose, with several countries losing ground and a new outbreak of the coronavirus threatening to undermine global economic growth. Gold also hit its highest level since January 2013. However, the market was so depressed that the price of gold pared the day's gains at the end of the day following the emergence of profit liquidation, and fell to 1643 this morning before rebounding. Markets continue to be buffeted by the news of the outbreak, and volatility is starting to widen. After a steep drop of more than 1,000 points yesterday, there was a rebound in demand for correction, but there was still no optimism.   As soon as the market opened yesterday, the gold price rose sharply. Outbreaks in Japan, South Korea and Italy have led to a sharp increase in the number of infected people. The market is worried that economic growth will be a drag, capital into the precious metals market safety; The price of gold rose through the 1650 and 1670 levels to a seven-year high of $1,689 in Europe, After the period gradually back soft. As investors continued to worry about the economy after the market opened, the dow Jones industrial average extended its losses after opening 590 points lower. It eventually fell more than 1,000 points, with the s&p and nasdaq each falling more than 3 percent.   After surging to a new seven-year high, the gold market was hit by an unwinding of profits, falling as low as $1,642 this morning despite little change in market fundamentals. But the gold market technical trend adjustment, will be the first consolidation to break through again up, on the short term, the gold market after a greater opportunity to back up, first try low, to make up. There are a number of U.S. economic data releases tonight that are not as important as they need to be. Recent signs of stabilization in the manufacturing sector could support the dollar if the data is done well. And the gold market can wait to back up, then bargain hunting.

2020-02-24

Markets were surging last week, the dollar at best, gold 飊 rise, the market for a new type of coronavirus to worry again, U.S. stocks turned down over the weekend, The outbreak of community infection in Japan and South Korea, the super infector and the passengers on the mishandled cruise ship, all caused a sharp increase in the number of infected people in Japan and South Korea. The gold market, which surged 3 percent last week, jumped to a peak of 1,680 on Monday, the highest since February 2013, as Banks ratcheted up the price's long-term performance and the rally is expected to continue. The weighted index rose last week to 99.91, its highest level since April 2017, on fears about the impact of the new coronavirus.   Economies around the world are bound to suffer, but recent strong U.S. economic data and the continued absence of a recovery in other economies have seen the dollar perform well and the euro slip through the 1.08 mark. Sterling also traded below 1.3, while the yen posted its biggest two-day drop in recent memory last week. With signs of stabilization in U.S. manufacturing and continued strength in the labor market, the dollar is still on track to break through the psychological 100 mark despite a correction late Friday. On the other hand, despite the dollar's strength, the market is more focused on gold as a haven. Gold got a big boost from low global interest rates, and the fed's rate-setting record last week, The fed will be watching closely for the impact of the new coronavirus on the economy, and markets will be looking to the European central bank, And the people's bank of China will increase monetary policy to rescue the market, gold prices in addition to play a hedge function, also become investors hedging tool. With the exception of a slight correction on Monday, when it broke through 1650, Up to 1680 before a little rest, rising wave after wave. The rise in gold prices is still only the beginning of a surge in gold prices.   Economic data this week, the market will continue to be affected by the pneumonia outbreak sentiment, under the general pressure on the stock market, the gold market is also expected to be supported in the short term. Several big Banks have upgraded their forecasts for the year, It is widely expected that the gold market will continue to outperform the broader market with a 10 percent increase. However, as the rally is also quite rapid, gold prices will move back and forth more rapidly.

2020-02-21

The market duly pulled off a big rally, with the U.S. dollar heading for the black, the Japanese yen tumbling and the Australian dollar falling to an 11-year low, but gold was trading in the opposite direction. Gold continued to challenge new highs as it hit a seven-year high and breached the 1620 mark. Trend more breakthroughs, still as expected walk, investors long and short lines are appropriate, In the right direction, we will be able to continue to ride the wealth through train, profitable.   The weighted index of meihui appeared # 3 white samurai, rising for the third consecutive day, and the index was 99.91, the highest since April 2017. The risk of recession continued to weigh on the yen, The dollar also posted its biggest two-day gain against the yen since September 17. The Australian dollar also fell to an 11-year low against the greenback. But gold climbed to a seven-year high on safe-haven demand, Gold last night hit a new high of $1,623.7, its highest since February 15, 2013, and is still hovering near that high this morning. Market ethos, opportunities everywhere.   Stock markets have reacted to concerns about the impact of a new coronavirus on the performance of major companies, despite a decline in U.S. stocks, but recent strong U.S. economic data, Other economies, by contrast, have not seen a strong recovery, supporting the dollar. The U.S. manufacturing sector showed signs of stabilizing, and federal reserve vice chairman larry clarida on Thursday issued an upbeat economic outlook, He noted that the U.S. economy showed no signs of losing momentum, and that he was not overly alarmed by the possibility that the outbreak could change the fed's interest-rate policy. Despite a brief reaction to the outbreak, the dollar index has been strong, the U.S. economy is on solid footing, the dollar is on track to break the psychological 100-mark, and non-u.s. currencies will remain under general pressure.   But despite a stronger dollar, enthusiasm for gold has not waned. Supported by low global interest rates, gold's medium-term rally trend will not change. Even after missing the fed's chance to cut rates last year, But last year's rise was only the beginning of a surge in gold prices, which broke through the psychological $1,600 barrier just after the start of 2020. These two nights to see the high gold price will make a proper correction, but immediately before the close to continue to hit the high, and continue to have buying support trend, investors can continue to advance three steps, step back form, Buy, until the emergence of significant pressure adjustment, the profit will be rich.

2020-02-20

The dollar continued to strengthen, the yen tumbled more than 100 points to a near nine-month low, and the euro weakened across the board. Gold prices rose above their high of 1611 at the start of the year to a new seven-year high. Despite the good performance of the us dollar and us stocks, gold prices will continue to challenge the high in the future. The early rally in the gold price has been repeated, and after stabilizing at 1600, the gold price has tested its early 1611 high. But the inability to break through, the market is looking forward to China to rescue the market, resulting in a greater shock to the market. The market is looking forward to the central government to save the market, early in the dow Jones industrial average futures rose, the dollar is stable, gold is also positive. This morning, the national interbank lending center authorized by the people's bank of China announced that The 1-year market quoted interest rate for loans is 4.05%, with A monthly decrease of 10 points. For more than 5 years, it is 4.75%, with A monthly decrease of 5 points, stimulating the a-share market to rise.   After reaching 1611 earlier in the day, gold failed to rise further and began to pull back. In the evening, gold experienced a period of softening and the monthly PPI rate in the us rose by the largest amount since March 2019. Gold fell back to $1,602 before the fed's rate-setting record for the previous month. Late at night, the federal reserve released minutes from its rate-setting meeting at the end of January this year, in which fed members agreed that the threat of a new outbreak of pneumonia required close attention, The current outbreak has created uncertainty about the outlook. Although there is no clear need for interest rate cuts, there is also caution about the economic outlook. Interest rates are expected to remain low for a long time. Gold prices stabilized again late at night. The three major U.S. stock indexes also continued to hit new highs, with the dollar in hot demand and the yen down more than 100 points, a rare move in recent years. The euro has fallen to the 1.08 mark; Dollar believes in the short term has the possibility of 100, euro, yen, commodity currency short-term trend is not optimistic.   But despite a stronger dollar, enthusiasm for gold has not waned. I had expected that the people's bank of China would cut interest rates to stimulate the economy. In fact, with the exception of China, almost all the top 10 industrial countries are under pressure to cut interest rates in the short term, which has reduced the cost of holding gold, reduced the purchasing power of silver paper and highlighted the value of gold. This supports the medium-term rally in gold prices. Technically, gold's breakthrough early in the week had been confirmed as a medium-term rally, but after hitting the psychological $1,600 barrier and testing to the highs of the year, Began to appear consolidation demand, high did not see continued buying immediately pushed up, gold prices should be back to buy, do not use the high market to chase the goods.

2020-02-19

The U.S. dollar rose in line with gold as markets resumed for a long holiday, while U.S. stocks retreated sharply and gold prices rose to a seven-year high. On the other hand, the euro fell to a near three-year low and gold rose above the 1600 mark. Although still attractive, the market can continue to profit first and then buy on the dips. The President of the United States is on vacation, The market was relatively active, and the gold price stabilized above 1584 in the early stage. Technically, it has stabilized at 1580, breaking through the upward resistance and consolidation level. Gold extended the upside, so early selling pressure has been rare, gold prices rely on steady gains.   The new crown pneumonia outbreak has not yet removed the threat to the global market, risk aversion increased. Gold last night hit a near seven-year high of $1,604.80 at the close, It last closed above $1,600 on March 27, 2013. The market is digesting the impact of the new outbreak of pneumonia on enterprises, and technology giant apple has issued a warning. Earnings for the march quarter will be lower than expected, dragging down the big three indexes. Reached the United States city, gold prices up through the 1600 barrier, this morning to see gold prices continued to stabilize. But the dollar also rose in tandem, with the euro falling to a near three-year low of $1.08, the pound also falling below $1.3, the euro losing ground across the board and the U.S. -weighted index stabilizing above $99. Will again approach the 100 mark. Expectations of the European central bank's negative interest rate policy are starting to rise, but looking back on recent upbeat U.S. economic data and an upbeat outlook from fed chairman colin Powell, The euro has come under pressure against the dollar as the European central bank has been counting on fiscally rich governments to increase market stimulus to ease policy pressure on the European central bank. As Europe's economy continues to slide, markets believe the European central bank will continue to cut interest rates. Abn amro said it expects the ECB to cut rates by another 0.1 percent to -0.6 percent.   And increased bond purchases to 40 billion euros a month from 20 billion euros, putting the euro under heavy pressure. The trend of dollar and gold strengthening at the same time will continue with the release of us PPI data tonight, but more importantly late into the night when the FOMC releases the minutes of last month's rate-setting meeting. Although the fed held rates steady last month, the shift to a more dovish fed has also raised expectations among investors that the central bank will adopt more accommodative monetary policy. The record of last month's meeting will give investors more insight. Gold prices remain on the upside, but as they have built up some gains, it is recommended to take some profits first and buy on the dips.

2020-02-18

The absence of U.S. markets, which were closed for the U.S. President's day holiday on Monday night, had a noticeable impact on trading sentiment, with little volatility in currency markets and solid gold prices. European stock markets are generally on the up side, with the U.S. resuming trading tonight and manufacturing data expected to send volatility back to normal, with the dollar and gold still holding together. We saw gold close at a high over the weekend, but we didn't see any active buying at the start of trading yesterday. I believe it was due to the holiday, so we didn't see any immediate continuation of the gold rally. The dollar also continued to strengthen. The euro has fallen slowly to its lowest level in more than three months, but it has seen no support. The economy has been severely affected and the European Banks have also loosened monetary policy earlier, but it has not worked. Recent economic data in Europe have shown that the euro zone economy still lags behind other industrial countries. The expectation that the European central bank will cut interest rates further or issue more debt to increase market liquidity to save the economy means that the euro should maintain its downward trend last year. The decline accelerated, with many big Banks cutting their euro forecasts, the euro will soon lose 1.08 support, will hover around the 1.07 level to find support.   During the outbreak of the new coronavirus, global stock markets continued to perform well, reflecting the market's tendency to believe that the outbreak was short-lived and that tipping points could be very close. But gold's investors don't seem willing to play the same game wholeheartedly as the stock market, where a degree of caution and risk aversion still keep prices high, As soon as the market opened this morning, the gold price rose again and reached its highest level in a month. As long as the gold price remained stable above 1580 and maintained its momentum, it would soon challenge the psychological level of 1600. Although the dollar weighted index is also strong enough to challenge the 100 mark, global interest rates will continue to flow into the gold market.   With U.S. markets rebounding tonight, trading is starting to pick up, and the New York fed manufacturing index for February will be released in the evening. Early in the month, the manufacturing index showed signs of picking up. The ISM index's return to 50 led to the beginning of the dollar's rally, Also keep an eye on the 9:30 reading tonight. A reading above 5 on the New York fed index would be considered positive and would support further dollar strength, although it would not necessarily weigh too heavily on gold. Technically, the gold price has broken through the lower consolidation area, as long as it stays above 1580, it can continue to test the 1600 mark up, the outlook is still strong, the dollar and gold prices are likely to continue to rise in tandem.

2020-02-17

The dollar strengthened against gold last week, as expected, as investors shrugged off concerns about pneumonia in wuhan, and U.S. economic data was generally positive. Stimulus money flowed into asset markets such as the U.S. dollar and U.S. stocks. On the other hand, investors were also happy to hold on to gold. In a global environment of low interest rates, the cost of holding gold is fairly modest, with the medium to long-term support for gold, which is approaching the 1,600 mark again and has a chance of hitting a near seven-year high if it breaks through again. US President Donald trump has repeatedly called on the federal reserve to loosen monetary policy after the central bank released a record of last month's rate hike in the middle of a week that has seen few economic data. While the fed did not cut rates last month, the market is also looking forward to the possibility of a rate cut this year. Monday is a holiday for the President of the United States, and it is believed that the market will be less volatile during the early part of the week.   The dollar has been strong for the past week, with all three major U.S. stock indexes continuing to hit new highs on the back of recent good economic data, and the dollar in favor, with the U.S. weighted index climbing above the 99 level. The euro has fallen to a three-year low of 1.08; U.S. economic data was good, but the euro zone economy held up, and investors were even more worried that the European central bank was about to launch another round of stimulus measures to rescue the economy. Shift, the euro is still at stake, this week could further 淜 under 1.07 level, the hui weighted index will be strong to challenge 100 mark. But despite a stronger dollar, enthusiasm for gold has not waned. Gold has found support below 1550 after seeing a slight pullback in the early part of last week, with a surge of buying sending prices to their highest close of the week. Technical trends are quite consistent. In addition to the federal reserve, which will keep interest rates low this year, the market is hoping that the European central bank, the bank of England, the reserve bank of Australia and even the people's bank of China will cut interest rates to stimulate the economy or issue more debt. These expectations of market liquidity have supported the medium-term rally in gold prices by reducing the cost to gold holders, reducing the purchasing power of silver paper and highlighting the value of gold as a store of value.   Technically, after last week's first drop followed by a rise, gold prices are on the verge of breaking through and stabilizing above 1580 this week. With the momentum accumulated last week, gold prices are expected to hit the psychological level of $1600 at one blow. Investors can follow suit. While Monday is the U.S. President's day holiday, the U.S. market will be closed. For the first time, trading volume will be relatively sparse and calm. Note whether the record will release pigeons to support the gold price upward breakout.

2020-02-14

The euro against the dollar fell to their lowest level in three years Peng, concern about the eurozone growth by investors to increase the size of the put quantitative understanding of the European central bank's vision, The euro fell as low as 1.0824, its lowest level since April 2017, while gold failed another test of the 1580 mark but remained strong overall. Mostly above 1570. U.S. retail sales will be released tonight, which will be the focus of the market for the week, and the expected Numbers are on track to add to recent highs for the dollar on valentine's day.   The euro has fallen sharply this week and is the weakest of the major currencies. Industrial output in the latest boom has fallen by the most in nearly four years. The eurozone economy is stagnant, The ECB is likely to remain in loose monetary policy mode, with most international Banks cutting their outlook for the euro this year. The bank of Denmark also took a dim view of the euro's outlook, predicting it would remain around the 1.07 level for the rest of the year after falling to 1.07. The weak economic recovery in the euro area, combined with the impact of the new coronavirus, has added to the uncertainty. The European central bank may even ease monetary policy further, even though interest rates are already very low. But debt issuance could also be expanded further to counter downside risks.   Gold market, and the dollar synchronously strong. Gold continued to benefit from a global environment of low interest rates, despite strong U.S. economic data, The market wasn't worried about an early fed rate cut, but in mid-week Powell said the fed would act decisively if there were risks to the economy. The fed is unlikely to raise interest rates this year. It will maintain a looser monetary policy. This, coupled with the current market expectation of more liquidity in the European region, will further stimulate the gold market. Gold prices held above 1570 yesterday, although the upward volatility is not big, failed to break through the 1580 barrier, but the afternoon there is still a chance to break through the impact of 1600 level, lower branch will continue to move up the ladder, Buy back. At 9:30 p.m. tonight, U.S. retail sales will be the focus of the week and the expected Numbers are not weak, which could provide further support for the dollar, but gold's rebound could be short-lived, with a chance to fall back before stabilizing for the better.

2020-02-13

Yesterday, the us dollar rose in tandem with gold, us stocks continued to hit new highs, supporting the performance of us dollar assets, the weighted us exchange rate rose to the 99 mark, But the market is still in favor of gold, money continues to pour into the gold market, prices continue to improve this morning, again testing the 1580 resistance. No major U.S. economic data were released at the start of the week, Following last week's upbeat economic data, both the U.S. dollar and U.S. stocks continued to receive support, with U.S. stocks hitting new highs and U.S. dollar prices also gaining traction as markets receded from concerns about the new coronavirus. The market is more concerned about when the U.S. stock market rally will peak. With the dow Jones industrial average approaching 30,000 and the three major indexes hitting record highs, the market is in a buoyant mood.   In the early days, the European currency has been weak. After the euro lost the 1.1 level, it lost the momentum to rebound. The pound also moved lower than 1.3. As low as $1,562. In the us city, federal reserve chairman colin Powell delivered a speech one by one, saying that the fed would implement a series of quantitative easing measures in the face of the next economic downturn, These include buying lots of government bonds to lower interest rates; And communicate to the market constantly, make interest rate policy and forward guidance of the bureau clearer. Powell stressed, The fed's QE will be aggressive if necessary. The comments sparked the performance of U.S. stocks and gold, gold prices saw a low rebound. As early as this morning in the Eurasian market, gold prices continue to steady, maintain the challenge of the 1580 barrier resistance momentum. Technically, the early week of the gold price back has seen buying in the low to continue, below still should buy should not sell, After two days of consolidation, it depends on whether gold can break through the 1580 mark, and if it can rise, it can extend the upside. Otherwise, gold's consolidation range will remain unchanged, but lower support will gradually increase.   The U.S. releases the consumer price index and weekly jobless claims tonight. The CPI data is more important, but last week saw a good week for new claims for unemployment assistance that led to a rally in the dollar, We can also watch tonight to see if it will hit another low and help the dollar.

2020-02-12

The market continued the range-bound trend at the beginning of the week, with the dollar generally strong and gold prices unable to break out, but also duly recovered, as yesterday's analysis pointed out, gold prices need time to consolidate, Build up momentum, so back to low can also be bought again. After the U.S. stock market reached its high last night, although the momentum has not changed, but also began to gather momentum, The market needs more news to guide it. There are still no major economic data out tonight, and federal reserve chairman colin Powell says monetary policy is appropriate, With the speech continuing tonight, markets will be watching to see if Powell gives further hints about the fed's future interest rate orientation.   The President took to social media last night to congratulate the stock market on its new high, but later stocks fell slightly as trump blamed Powell. Mr Trump accused the fed of having too high interest rates and too strong a dollar to support exports. He had already blamed America's GDP for reaching 4% if it were not for the fed, The dow is up 10,000 points. Powell, testifying before the senate financial services committee on the semiannual monetary policy report, said, Barring a major change in the economy, monetary policy remains appropriate and authorities are concerned about the development of a new outbreak of pneumonia that could hit the Chinese economy and spread globally. He described the pace of activity growth in the us as moderate, with a further strengthening of the job market, and said the economy appeared able to withstand the global risks that had intensified since last summer.   A good U.S. economic tone, coupled with a strong U.S. dollar on Wall Street, also deprived gold of further momentum. There was a break in the surf. Gold failed to stabilise above 1570 and retreated further after Powell's testimony to as low as 1562, although there was no follow-up pressure below, The low bounced back quickly and has since mostly stayed above 1565. Technically, gold has maintained its medium-term rally after a sharp early rebound, But even if the market continues to run out of momentum, gold prices will have to consolidate further ahead of time, with buying still supporting gold prices at the 1560 level,   But above cannot break 1580 at the same time cannot extend to rise the space, the gold price opportunity lies in this level range to fall. Fed chairman colin Powell continues his speech tonight, Believe that with the mouth confession 脗 last night will quite consistent, but also need to pay attention to, he will be no future interest rate to bring more inspiration, as the market is lack of important economic data, Therefore, the content of the speech is more likely to become a market guide.

2020-02-11

There was not much economic news to lead the market yesterday, with currency and gold markets relatively quiet, but the three major U.S. stock indexes broke high as fears of pneumonia in wuhan receded. The dollar and gold were both expected to remain strong. Fed governors' upbeat outlook for the us economy supports asset markets. Fed governor Susan bowman said current interest rate policy should help the economy expand. She expects the U.S. economy to continue growing at a moderate pace, with unemployment at a half-century low, Will remain low, inflation will gradually rise to the 2 per cent policy target, and the overall us economic environment is very positive, which should provide broad support to the regional economy.   Daley, also President of the San Francisco fed, said China's economy would slow for two quarters because of the new coronavirus, but the impact on the U.S. economy would be limited. She said the outbreak had not affected confidence in the economy and she would be watching the situation closely. In the current economic environment, it was better to accept that inflation was well above the 2 per cent target than slightly below the target. While low unemployment has not pushed up inflation as much as expected, central Banks have been able to get the economy moving faster than expected and more people into jobs. But she thinks there are limits to monetary policy, Fiscal policy needs to play a role in mitigating economic shocks, and investing in infrastructure, research and development, and education can increase economic productivity in the long run. Officials and governors are optimistic about the economy, Support for the U.S. from falling to rising, the dollar also held steady, but the gold market was relatively stronger.   According to global gold ETFF holdings, gold purchases by exchanges have seen inflows for 12 consecutive trading days. Gold ETF holdings increased by 112,000 ounces as of Thursday, So far this year, net inflows have reached 1.65 million ounces. Despite the favorable U.S. economic data and support for the dollar and U.S. stocks, investors are still happy to hold gold on a macro basis. This is exactly what I've been saying, that the state of low global interest rates will eventually support a breakout in gold prices, which have been climbing since the market opened yesterday, but with little momentum, In the early hours of the morning, gold started to recover from the 1576 level. Although gold continued to rise in the medium to long term, it would also be limited in the short term by the strong U.S. dollar and U.S. stocks. The high is not to be reached unless it stabilizes above 1,580, extending the upside, and the U.S. is also short of important economic data tonight, However, a number of officials in Europe and the United States have made speeches that could have implications for global interest rate policy.

2020-02-10

上週美元接連得到攀升動力，美匯加權指數更重上98上方，迫近四個月高位，但美元上升，並沒有為金價持續帶來壓力， 金價回跌至1550下方後，守穩1546支持，受技術買盤支持回升，金價與美元雙雙靠穩的走勢有望於本週延續。 美元此番攀升，有實質經濟數據支持，加強了市場對美國經濟復甦的信心；上週初時間，已見投資者開始淡化武漢肺炎對金融市場衝擊的優慮， 有大行指出，疫情對經濟影響僅屬短暫，將無阻美國經濟復甦，而週一見美國公佈的ISM製造業指數重上50.9， 處於盛衰分界線的50上方，美元的升勢亦展開序幕。   緊接理想製造業數據，其後的非製造業及ADP就業增長亦較預期理想，歐幣週中時間已呈弱勢，歐元及英鎊分別失守1.1及1.3關口。 金價亦於週初時段刷新週內低位，低見1547美元。而週末的勞工市場為全週市場重點，美國公佈的1月失業率雖稍微回升至3.6%， 但1月份非農業新增職位高報22.5萬人，遠較預期的16萬及前值的14.7萬理想，歐幣再下挫週內低位收市，美元維持強勢。 但貴金屬市場則有技術買盤支持，金價跌至1550下方，投資者均願意在低位建立頭寸，限制了金價的跌幅，儘管美元上升，但無阻資金追捧金市。   月頭多間央行雖維持息口不變，但大部份均放鴿，環球低息市場仍會維持一段較長時間，降低了持金者的成本，中長線滋助金價上升的因素仍未改變， 市場焦點短期從疫症的陰霾中轉移，但除非見疫情明確受控，否則武漢肺炎仍是市場的不安因素，隨時會令市場出現逆轉，國內自春節放假後， 本週仍處於防疫狀態，外省勞工仍未獲上班準許，又或出省需隔離14日，始能重回崗位，勢必影響國內首季經濟表現，並拖累全球經濟復甦。   技術上，金價雖然低位有買盤支持，但美元的強勢短期亦會困擾金價上漲動能。上週先挫後揚的走勢雖然擺脫了弱勢， 上方要再強行突破亦必需更多好消息配合，在1580前雖抱有戒心，下方支持逐級推高，在1560下方可繼續吸納，中線只要守穩1546支持， 金價後市仍將逐步攀升，本週可望於美元雙方齊齊靠穩，第一季仍有望維持衝擊1600關口的可能。 本週初段，市場欠缺重要消息引領，需週末的零售額為全週市場重點，週初時間，可依據技術位置先行炒上落。

2020-02-07

昨日美元及黃金雙雙走強，美元升至近四個月高位，歐幣進一步下挫低位，但金價則如期低位整固後反彈， 今晨見亞太區市場交投稍為縮減，投資者傾向等待今晚美國勞工市場數據，預期當中非農數據不弱， 但金價若能守穩技術支持，可望靠穩後上揚。   早段時間，金價已開始靠穩反彈。守穩1550美元後，金價歐亞市時段，已重上1560上方並開始企穩， 但美元走勢亦見上揚。美元指數刷新去年10115日以來高點98.57，近期美國經濟數據均表現不俗， 而且市場對武漢肺炎中的憂慮消退，美股三大指數全面上漲。晚間時份見美國公佈的一週首次申領失業援助人數報20.2萬， 較預期的21.5萬及前值21.6萬人次理想外，亦是近11個月新低，儘管數據重要性不足， 但亦帶動市場對今晚美國勞工市數據的憧憬，美元強勢攀升。英鎊下挫至1.2920支持，歐元亦失守1.10關口。   但金價無視美元強勢，投資者仍樂意低位吸納黃金頭寸，環球低息環境將支持金價長遠方向發展。 技術上，金價1546支持位置仍然有效，但自低位反彈而逾廿美元，上漲動力會開始收縮， 而預期勞工市場數據不弱下，金價難以即市作出突破，上方必需有效突破並企穩1570才能延伸上漲空間。 基本面上，需留意今晚非農數據會否削弱市場對美聯儲減息的預期，若勞工市場仍然暢旺， 加上近期美國理想的經濟數據支持，美聯儲年底減息預期將進一步降溫，甚至年底減息一次的機會消失， 美元可望進一步上揚，並打壓金價從回週內低點。需小心注意今晚非農表現，若數據開出有25萬人次增長， 亦屬非常理想數字，相反低於10萬，則需小心美元會反高潮回跌。

2020-01-30

昨日市況走勢恰如預期，美聯儲亦維持息口不變，金價回吐一步到位後，即時爬升，環球低息環境有望持續， 支持金價中長線升勢。金價於早段時間承接前晚的跌勢，最低回至1563美元，但如早前分析所言，此番回吐， 主要是因應股市反彈所帶動，但股市欠缺利好消息推動，反彈走勢難以持久，金價回吐反而造就入市良機。 金價早段時間見過1563後，便持續受買盤支持回升，很快又重新企穩於1570上方，等待美聯儲議息結果的公佈。   達入美國市，整體市況較為平穩，香港凌晨時份，美聯儲結束一連兩日的議息會議，並宣佈維持息口不變。   美聯儲宣佈維持聯邦基金利率於1.50%至1.75%不變，符合市場預期，並連續兩次會議，均是全體委員一致維持息口不變， 是繼上年7月、9月、及10月降息以後，再次維持息口不變，會後聲明措詞稍作改變，較12月出現兩項變化， 對家庭支出的判斷由"強勁"調整為"溫和"，另外，聲明強調當前貨幣政策的立場是出於"回到"2%的通脹目標， 在早前的原文僅強調是"接近"2%的通脹目標，顯示出聯儲局對通脹目標表示出不滿。   市場解讀是次會議仍然偏鴿，息口將更長時間維持於低水平，加上1月開始換屆，來屆新委員中，票委更傾向於鴿派， 金價因此晚上得到爬升動力，於深夜時份再衝擊1580關口。延至今晨，金價仍然靠穩於1570上方， 加上亞太區股市仍普遍受壓，武漢疫情亦引起美聯儲主席鮑威爾的擔心，他指出擔心疫情會拖垮全球經濟活動，年底仍保持減息機會。   今日英倫銀行亦會公佈議息結果，儘管市場普遍預期英倫銀行將維持息口不變， 不過英倫銀行將來息口變化幾乎肯定以減息為主，對英鎊仍會帶來壓力，金價亦有望從中得到支持， 晚間時份，美國將公佈一週首次申領失業援助人數及美國第4季PCE物價指數，數據對即市也會產生一定波動，可以留意當中變化。

2020-01-29

昨日歐美股市全線反彈，油升金跌，調整了週一的市況，但整體大市基調沒變，武漢肺炎發展仍會短期困擾金融市場表現， 美聯儲已展開一連兩天的議息會議，今晚香港凌晨時間將作公佈，預期息口不會變動，但會後聲明具有啟示作用，需要關注。   歐洲三大股指加上美股三大指數昨日出現技術性反彈，打壓金價下滑；早段時間，仍見金價高位靠穩， 但只限維持於1576上方，卻未能企穩於1580上方，達入美國市後，金價開始出現較大跌幅。美國公佈的經濟數據支持了美元發展，   1月消費信心指數從12月的128.2回升至131.6，另外，12月份耐用品訂單亦增至2.4%， 因軍用物資採購增加抵消了商業投資減少的影響，較預期樂觀的數據支持了美元發展。   市場經過調整後，將注視新一輪消息引導方向。美聯儲正展開一連兩天的議息會議，市場普遍共識美聯儲將維持息口不變， 會後聲明的措詞亦不會有太大改變，不過近期的新型冠狀疫情及中東局勢等地緣政治緊張，美聯儲可能會作出適時評論， 或會有任何放鴿表示，左右市場對年底息口的期望。   技術上，金價回吐已一步到位，今晨回吐至1563美元，從三週高位回落，跌幅已逾廿美元， 可適量買入，下方進一步支持位於250小時平均約1560美元，長線上，金價在這兩週多間央行放鴿情況下， 可望保持衝擊1600關口的誘因，但走勢較為反覆，受多項消息引導，宜回位再行買入。

2020-01-28

全球戒炎準備中，擔心新型冠狀病毒擴散，環球股市繼續有得震無得訓，美股三大指數大幅下挫， 道指逾450點，維指及標普均跌超過1.5%，市場避險情緒高漲，資金湧入貴金屬市場， 金價昨日跳空上漲逾1%，刷出近期新高，再度直迫1600關口。   昨日甫開市便見金價受支持跳空上漲，儘管亞洲市場普遍仍因農歷假期而未有開市，不過投資者未敢怠慢， 在亞太區市場已開始見買盤湧現。金價多返回吐，但亦收穩1575上方，僅回補跳空位置一半空間，大部份時間徘徊於1580水平。 日圓亦成為資金避難所，重上108水平，短期由於疫情未見受控或有好消息出籠，因此，市場緊張情緒仍將繼續， 黃金及日圓短期易升難跌，仍會繼續成為投資者的資金避難所所追捧。   今晚美國將公佈耐用品訂單，上次受波音訂單減少影響，大跌逾2%，今晚數據若再大幅下滑，恐對美元帶來即市壓力。 但重點是明晚凌晨公佈的美聯儲議息會議；今次議息會議為2020首次會議，雖然息口變化機會不大，但今年首次議息亦有前瞻作用。 市場將關注美聯儲在減少購買債券的規模會否縮少，若美聯儲對此有所暗示，恐對美股帶來進一步壓力， 又或美聯儲主席鮑威爾再度放鴿，則會對美元帶來傷害。   技術上，金價跳空上漲，並保持了良好型態，後市走勢仍然理想，金價於1576多番受買盤支持承托，此水平可開始吸納，後市將逐步挑戰1600關口。

2020-01-27

上週三大央行先後議息，均維持息口不變，但口風繼續放鴿，加上武漢疫情未受控， 市場擔心經濟前景受到拖累，支持貴金屬市場發展，金價今晨升超過十美元，後市走勢仍然相當樂觀。 展週本週，美聯儲及英倫銀行亦會舉行議息會議，預期息口仍將維持不變， 但可能維持寛鬆貨幣政策，會後聲明等內容仍需注意。   上週加拿大、日本及歐洲央行相繼續議息，息口均維持不變，但三大央行均對經濟前景表示不明朗， 並將繼續維持寛鬆貨幣政策，加拿大亦刪除了維持息口等字眼，意味未來息口取向將傾向於減息，對加元將帶來中期性傷害。   另一方面，武漢疫情未見受控，自上週發現疫情擴散至美國及香港等環球金融中心， 投資者開始意識疫情可能爆發並阻礙全球經濟增長。單是內地全病例確個案已逾2700宗，導致80人死亡， 為防控疫情，內地農歷新年假期延長至2月2日，今晨日經指數低開400點，並繼續走軟， 投資者憂慮情緒升溫，美股道指期貨亦受壓，美股三大指數期貨跌幅均逾1%，油價則被拋售， 而市場避險意識趨升，金價及日圓受追捧，金價今晨一度高見1588美元。   展望本週，市場避險意識將維持，金價有望於高水平發展，而今週美聯儲及英倫銀行的議息會議亦需留意， 儘管兩大央行較大機會維持息口不變，但若其會後聲明又再放鴿，將會對英鎊及美元均帶來傷害， 金價則有望在低息環境支持下靠穩向上。金價適合繼續追捧，若美股借疫情擴大回吐，資金將會持續流入貴金屬市場避險。

2020-01-24

本週三大央行先後議息，昨晚輪到最受市場關注的歐洲央行公佈議息結果，雖均維持息口不變， 但亦同時放鴿，支持了貴金屬市場發展，美元及黃金均見靠穩發展。   歐洲央行預期，利率將會繼續維持當前水平甚至低低，直至通脹前景穩固轉向低於但接近2%的目標水平， 並將在加息前不久才會停止購債，意味放寛貨幣政策短期內不變；   而議息會議的焦點是歐洲央行宣佈對貨幣政策的戰略評估，這是自2003年以來首次。這次評估符合市場預期， 於12月決議上，行長拉加德表示央行將於一月進行政策評估，儘管評估框架尚未達成共識， 但政策評估將包括不平等現象加劇的問題和氣候變化挑戰性問題。   會後發佈會中，行長拉加德重申歐洲央行的聲明內容，並指高度寛鬆貨幣政策仍會維持一段時間， 如有需要歐洲央行將調整所有可行工具，不過她亦表示對低率感到擔憂，戰略評估方面， 她透霝戰略評估將包括物價穩定的制定、貨幣政策工具、經濟和貨幣分析以及溝通實戰， 但歐央行不會提前排除或者預計戰略評估的結果。會後，歐元反彈乏力，亦有大行預計， 歐洲央行將從三月開始降息三次，每次降息10基點，歐元中短期走勢仍不樂觀。   貴金屬市場方面，則可受惠於環球低息的貨幣政策，昨日一度上衝至1567位置， 不過高位承接力不足，因此又再回落；金價於1568形成了雙頂型態，技術上必需突破才能再延伸上升空間， 但以美元現時強勢仍未對金價帶來太大傷害，相信再突破機會較高，短線下方，只要繼續守穩1557及1553支持， 則可繼續向上，回吐可逢低吸維。